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Secular Fertility Declines, Baby Booms and Economic Growth: International Evidence

Author

Listed:
  • Curtis Simon

    (Clemson University)

  • Robert Tamura

    (Clemson University & Atlanta FRB)

Abstract
costs after the end of the Second World War, but ending by 1970. In addition we introduce a new puzzle to the profession. Given the magnitude of the Baby Boom, roughly equal to fertility in 1900 for many of these countries, why did schooling of the Baby Boom cohorts not fall to the 1900 level of their predecessors? In fact, not only do they not fall, but their schooling levels are higher than previous cohorts. Using a quantitative model we are able to identify the magnitude of the reduction in costs of education necessary to explain this paradoxical increase in schooling. We find empirical support for these cost reductions.

Suggested Citation

  • Curtis Simon & Robert Tamura, 2010. "Secular Fertility Declines, Baby Booms and Economic Growth: International Evidence," 2010 Meeting Papers 1041, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:sed010:1041
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Shao, Shuai & Tian, Zhihua & Zhang, Yan & Li, Baoli, 2023. "The housing status and two-child fertility willingness of floating population: Evidence from the Chinese General Social Survey," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 247-266.
    3. Kai Zhao, 2014. "War Finance and the Baby Boom," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 17(3), pages 459-473, July.
    4. Masako Kimura & Daishin Yasui, 2010. "The Galor–Weil gender-gap model revisited: from home to market," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 15(4), pages 323-351, December.
    5. Leonid V Azarnert, 2020. "Health capital provision and human capital accumulation," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(3), pages 633-650.
    6. Nguyen Thang Dao & Julio Dávila & Angela Greulich, 2021. "The education gender gap and the demographic transition in developing countries," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 34(2), pages 431-474, April.
    7. Asako Ohinata & Dimitrios Varvarigos, 2020. "Demographic Transition and Fertility Rebound in Economic Development," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 122(4), pages 1640-1670, October.
    8. Theodore P. Lianos & Anastasia Pseiridis & Nicholas Tsounis, 2023. "Declining population and GDP growth," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-9, December.
    9. Nguyen Thang DAO & Julio Dávila & Angela Greulich, 2019. "The Gender Gap in Education Investment and the Demographic Transition in Developing Countries: Theory and Evidence," ISER Discussion Paper 1071, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    10. Tamura, Robert & Dwyer, Jerry & Devereux, John & Baier, Scott, 2019. "Economic growth in the long run," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 1-35.
    11. Mandal, Abir & Regmi, Narendra & Tamura, Robert, 2021. "Education, Fertility and Incomes in the States of India: Demographic Transition," MPRA Paper 110378, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Robert TAMURA & David CUBERES, 2020. "Equilibrium and A-efficient Fertility with Increasing Returns to Population and Endogenous Mortality," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 86(2), pages 157-182, June.
    13. Magalhães, Graziella & Turchick, David, 2022. "Growth and inequality under different hierarchical education regimes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I2 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education
    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

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