Nothing Special   »   [go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/rbp/wpaper/2018-012.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Transmission of Exogenous Commodity and Oil Prices shocks to Latin America - A Panel VAR approach

Author

Listed:
  • Gondo, Rocío

    (Banco Central de Reserva del Perú)

  • Pérez, Fernando

    (Banco Central de Reserva del Perú)

Abstract
During the last sixteen years, we have experienced an episode of commodity price boom and bust. Despite being exogenous to Latin America, commodity and oil price shocks are extremely relevant for explaining macroeconomic fluctuations. Thus, in this paper we assess the dynamic impact of these price fluctuations for relevant macroeconomic and financial variables for commodity exporting countries in the region (Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru) using a Bayesian Hierarchical Panel VAR with an exogenous block. This model is more flexible and less restrictive than a stylized DSGE model. We quantify the strong expansionary effect of these price shocks, and we discuss the connection with i) monetary and macro-prudential policy, ii) the financial sector and iii) the real economy. Furthermore, we observe some degree of heterogeneity across countries both in amplification and propagation patterns.

Suggested Citation

  • Gondo, Rocío & Pérez, Fernando, 2018. "The Transmission of Exogenous Commodity and Oil Prices shocks to Latin America - A Panel VAR approach," Working Papers 2018-012, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    • Handle: RePEc:rbp:wpaper:2018-012
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bcrp.gob.pe/docs/Publicaciones/Documentos-de-Trabajo/2018/documento-de-trabajo-012-2018.pdf
    File Function: Application/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fernando José Pérez Forero, 2015. "Comparing the Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks in Latin America: A Hierachical Panel VAR," Premio de Banca Central Rodrigo Gómez / Central Banking Award "Rodrigo Gómez", Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA, number prg2015eng, July-Dece.
    2. Uhlig, Harald, 2005. "What are the effects of monetary policy on output? Results from an agnostic identification procedure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 381-419, March.
    3. Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2010. "Structural Vector Autoregressions: Theory of Identification and Algorithms for Inference," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 77(2), pages 665-696.
    4. Luis Felipe Céspedes & Andrés Velasco, 2012. "Macroeconomic Performance During Commodity Price Booms and Busts," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 60(4), pages 570-599, December.
    5. Fernández, Andrés & Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín, 2017. "World shocks, world prices, and business cycles: An empirical investigation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(S1), pages 2-14.
    6. Jorge Fornero & Markus Kirchner & Andrés Yany, 2015. "Terms of Trade Shocks and Investment in Commodity-Exporting Economies," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Rodrigo Caputo & Roberto Chang (ed.),Commodity Prices and Macroeconomic Policy, edition 1, volume 22, chapter 5, pages 135-193, Central Bank of Chile.
    7. Bertrand Gruss, 2014. "After the Boom–Commodity Prices and Economic Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean," IMF Working Papers 2014/154, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    9. Cushman, David O. & Zha, Tao, 1997. "Identifying monetary policy in a small open economy under flexible exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 433-448, August.
    10. Fabio Canova, 2005. "The transmission of US shocks to Latin America," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 229-251.
    11. Canova, Fabio & Nicolo, Gianni De, 2002. "Monetary disturbances matter for business fluctuations in the G-7," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1131-1159, September.
    12. Ciccarelli, Matteo & Rebucci, Alessandro, 2006. "Has the transmission mechanism of European monetary policy changed in the run-up to EMU?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 737-776, April.
    13. Litterman, Robert B, 1986. "Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions-Five Years of Experience," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 4(1), pages 25-38, January.
    14. Leandro Medina, 2010. "The Dynamic Effects of Commodity Prices on Fiscal Performance in Latin America," IMF Working Papers 2010/192, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Christiane Baumeister & James D. Hamilton, 2015. "Sign Restrictions, Structural Vector Autoregressions, and Useful Prior Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 83(5), pages 1963-1999, September.
    16. Mr. Francisco Roch, 2017. "The Adjustment to Commodity Price Shocks in Chile, Colombia, and Peru," IMF Working Papers 2017/208, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Andrew Filardo & Marco Jacopo Lombardi, 2014. "Has Asian emerging market monetary policy been too procyclical when responding to swings in commodity prices?," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Globalisation, inflation and monetary policy in Asia and the Pacific, volume 77, pages 129-153, Bank for International Settlements.
    18. Iván Kataryniuk & Jaime Martínez-Martín, 2019. "TFP Growth and Commodity Prices in Emerging Economies," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(10), pages 2211-2229, August.
    19. Javier Garcia-Cicco & Markus Kirchner & Julio Carrillo & Diego Rodríguez & Fernando Perez & Rocío Gondo & Carlos Montoro & Roberto Chang, 2017. "Financial and real shocks and the effectiveness of monetary and macroprudential policies in Latin American countries," BIS Working Papers 668, Bank for International Settlements.
    20. Medina, Leandro, 2010. "A Commodity Curse? The Dynamic Effects of Commodity Prices on Fiscal Performance in Latin America," MPRA Paper 21690, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Bank for International Settlements, 2014. "Globalisation, inflation and monetary policy in Asia and the Pacific," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 77.
    22. Litterman, Robert, 1986. "Forecasting with Bayesian vector autoregressions -- Five years of experience : Robert B. Litterman, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 4 (1986) 25-38," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 497-498.
    23. Zha, Tao, 1999. "Block recursion and structural vector autoregressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 291-316, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Nivín, Rafael & Pérez, Fernando, 2019. "Estimación de un Índice de Condiciones Financieras para el Perú," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 37, pages 49-64.
    2. Gondo, Rocío & Pérez, Fernando, 2019. "Cross-Border flows and the effect of Global Financial shocks in Latin America," Working Papers 2019-020, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gondo, Rocío & Pérez, Fernando, 2019. "Cross-Border flows and the effect of Global Financial shocks in Latin America," Working Papers 2019-020, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    2. Marek Jarocinski, 2010. "Responses to monetary policy shocks in the east and the west of Europe: a comparison," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(5), pages 833-868.
    3. Fernando José Pérez Forero, 2015. "Comparing the Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks in Latin America: A Hierachical Panel VAR," Premio de Banca Central Rodrigo Gómez / Central Banking Award "Rodrigo Gómez", Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA, number prg2015eng, July-Dece.
    4. Fabian Fink & Yves S. Schüler, 2013. "The Transmission of US Financial Stress: Evidence for Emerging Market Economies," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2013-01, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
    5. Dedola, Luca & Rivolta, Giulia & Stracca, Livio, 2017. "If the Fed sneezes, who catches a cold?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(S1), pages 23-41.
    6. Carrasco, Alex & Florián, David & Nivín, Rafael, 2019. "SFX Interventions, Financial Intermediation, and External Shocks in Emerging Economies," Working Papers 2019-022, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    7. Robin Braun & Ralf Brüggemann, 2017. "Identification of SVAR Models by Combining Sign Restrictions With External Instruments," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2017-07, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
    8. Haldane, Andrew & Roberts-Sklar, Matt & Wieladek, Tomasz & Young, Chris, 2016. "QE: The Story so far," Bank of England working papers 624, Bank of England.
    9. William Gatt & Germano Ruisi, 2022. "The spillover of euro area shocks to the Maltese economy," CBM Working Papers WP/03/2022, Central Bank of Malta.
    10. Wieladek, Tomasz, 2016. "The varying coefficient Bayesian panel VAR model," Bank of England working papers 578, Bank of England.
    11. Paul Carrillo‐Maldonado, 2023. "Partial identification for growth regimes: The case of Latin American countries," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(3), pages 557-583, July.
    12. Andrea Bonilla Bolanos, 2014. "External Vulnerabilities And Economic Integration: Is The Union Of South American Nations A Promising Project?," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 39(2), pages 97-131, June.
    13. Gossé, Jean-Baptiste & Guillaumin, Cyriac, 2013. "L’apport de la représentation VAR de Christopher A. Sims à la science économique," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 89(4), pages 309-319, Décembre.
    14. Wieladek, Tomasz & Garcia Pascual, Antonio, 2016. "The European Central Bank’s QE: A new hope," CEPR Discussion Papers 11309, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Joshua C. C. Chan, 2022. "Asymmetric conjugate priors for large Bayesian VARs," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 13(3), pages 1145-1169, July.
    16. Mohd Azlan Shah Saidi & Zulkefly Abdul Karim & Zurina Kefeli@Zulkefli, 2018. "Impact of China on Malaysian Economy: Empirical Evidence of Sign-Restricted Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) Model," Asian Academy of Management Journal of Accounting and Finance (AAMJAF), Penerbit Universiti Sains Malaysia, vol. 14(2), pages 25-44.
    17. Herwartz, Helmut & Wang, Shu, 2023. "Point estimation in sign-restricted SVARs based on independence criteria with an application to rational bubbles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    18. Andrea Bonilla, 2014. "External vulnerabilities and economic integration. Is the Union of South American Nations a promising project ?," Working Papers halshs-00945044, HAL.
    19. Karlsson, Sune, 2013. "Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregression," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 791-897, Elsevier.
    20. Malin Adolfson & Michael K. Andersson & Jesper Lindé & Mattias Villani & Anders Vredin, 2007. "Modern Forecasting Models in Action: Improving Macroeconomic Analyses at Central Banks," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3(4), pages 111-144, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Panel Vector Autoregressions; Exogenous Block; Bayesian Estimation; Commodity Prices;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • Q02 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Commodity Market

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rbp:wpaper:2018-012. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Research Unit (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bcrgvpe.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.