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Inflation Targeting: A Victim of Its Own Success?

Author

Listed:
  • Christian Gillitzer

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

  • John Simon

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

Abstract
Since the introduction of inflation targeting, inflation expectations have become firmly anchored at target and there has been a flattening of the Phillips curve. These changes mean that a 'divine coincidence' between headline inflation and output gap stabilisation is less apparent than when inflation targeting was introduced. This has led some to call for a fundamental re-engineering of inflation-targeting regimes: either adopting explicit dual mandates or replacing headline inflation with a target inflation measure more closely related to domestic output gaps. We argue instead for an evolution in the practice of CPI inflation targeting. In practice, many central banks have already moved in this direction with the adoption of flexible inflation-targeting frameworks.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Gillitzer & John Simon, 2015. "Inflation Targeting: A Victim of Its Own Success?," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2015-09, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    • Handle: RePEc:rba:rbardp:rdp2015-09
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kuttner, Ken & Robinson, Tim, 2010. "Understanding the flattening Phillips curve," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 110-125, August.
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    6. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2007. "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 3-33, February.
    7. Matheson, Troy & Stavrev, Emil, 2013. "The Great Recession and the inflation puzzle," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 120(3), pages 468-472.
    8. Guy Debelle & James Vickery, 1998. "Is the Phillips Curve A Curve? Some Evidence and Implications for Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 74(227), pages 384-398, December.
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Kabundi, Alain & Poon, Aubrey & Wu, Ping, 2023. "A time-varying Phillips curve with global factors: Are global factors important?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    2. Chew Lian Chua & Tim Robinson, 2018. "Why Has Australian Wages Growth Been So Low? A Phillips Curve Perspective," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 94(S1), pages 11-32, June.
    3. Thompson, Daniel, 2021. "Stagnant services and the gradual disinflation of advanced economies," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 128-148.
    4. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5nf0balck3981o9ril8lj58pud is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Christophe Blot & Jérôme Creel & Xavier Ragot, 2015. "Flexible inflation targeting vs nominal GDP targeting in the euro area," Working Papers hal-03429880, HAL.
    6. Warwick J McKibbin & Augustus J Panton, 2018. "Twenty-five Years of Inflation Targeting in Australia: Are There Better Alternatives for the Next Twenty-five Years?," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: John Simon & Maxwell Sutton (ed.),Central Bank Frameworks: Evolution or Revolution?, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    7. Lasha Arevadze & Tamta Sopromadze & Giorgi Tsutskiridze & Shalva Mkhatrishvili, 2020. "Identifying the Phillips Curve in Georgia," NBG Working Papers 01/2020, National Bank of Georgia.
    8. Trent Saunders & Peter Tulip, 2020. "A Model of the Australian Housing Market," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 96(S1), pages 1-25, June.
    9. Goran Petrevski, 2023. "Macroeconomic Effects of Inflation Targeting: A Survey of the Empirical Literature," Papers 2305.17474, arXiv.org.
    10. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/5nf0balck3981o9ril8lj58pud is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Luke Hartigan & James Morley, 2020. "A Factor Model Analysis of the Australian Economy and the Effects of Inflation Targeting," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 96(314), pages 271-293, September.
    12. Imran H. Shah & Simón Sosvilla‐Rivero, 2021. "Incorporating asset price stability in the European Central Bank's inflation targeting framework," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 2022-2043, April.
    13. Valera, Harold Glenn A. & Holmes, Mark J. & Hassan, Gazi M., 2017. "How credible is inflation targeting in Asia? A quantile unit root perspective," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 194-210.
    14. Luke Hartigan & James Morley, 2018. "A Factor Model Analysis of the Effects on Inflation Targeting on the Australian Economy," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: John Simon & Maxwell Sutton (ed.),Central Bank Frameworks: Evolution or Revolution?, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    15. Christophe Blot & Jérôme Creel & Xavier Ragot, 2015. "Flexible inflation targeting vs nominal GDP targeting in the euro area," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/5nf0balck39, Sciences Po.
    16. James Bishop & Emma Greenland, 2021. "Is the Phillips Curve Still a Curve? Evidence from the Regions," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2021-09, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    17. James B. Bullard, 2018. "Allan Meltzer and the Search for a Nominal Anchor: a speech at the \"Meltzer's Contributions to Monetary Economics and Public Policy, Philadelphia, Pa," Speech 296, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    18. Kevin Lane & Tom Rosewall, 2015. "Firm-level Capacity Utilisation and the Implications for Investment,Labour and Prices," RBA Bulletin (Print copy discontinued), Reserve Bank of Australia, pages 9-18, December.
    19. Geoff Weir, 2018. "Wage Growth Puzzles and Technology," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2018-10, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    20. Trent Saunders & Peter Tulip, 2019. "A Model of the Australian Housing Market," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2019-01, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    21. James B. Bullard, 2018. "Allan Meltzer and the Search for a Nominal Anchor," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 100(2), pages 117-126.
    22. Michael D. Bordo & Pierre L. Siklos, 2017. "Central Bank Credibility before and after the Crisis," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(1), pages 19-45, February.
    23. Lasha Arevadze & Tamta Sopromadze & Giorgi Tsutskiridze & Shalva Mkhatrishvili, 2020. "Identifying the Phillips Curve in Georgia," NBG Working Papers 01/2020, National Bank of Georgia.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation targeting; Phillips curve; Australia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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