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Assessing the economic effects of lockdowns in Italy: a computational Input-Output approach

Author

Listed:
  • Severin Reissl
  • Alessandro Caiani
  • Francesco Lamperti
  • Mattia Guerini
  • Fabio Vanni
  • Giorgio Fagiolo
  • Tommaso Ferraresi
  • Leonardo Ghezzi
  • Mauro Napoletano
  • Andrea Roventini
Abstract
We build a novel computational input-output model to estimate the economic impactof lockdowns in Italy. The key advantage of our framework is to integrate the regional and sectoral dimensions of economic production in a very parsimonious numerical simulation framework. Lockdowns are treated as shocks to available labor supply and theyare calibrated on regional and sectoral employment data coupled with the prescriptions of government decrees. We show that when estimated on data from the first "hard" lockdown, our model closely reproduces the observed economic dynamics during spring 2020. In addition, we show that the model delivers a good out-of-sample forecasting performance. We also analyze the effects of the second "mild" lockdown in fall of 2020 which delivered a much more moderate negative impact on production compared to both the spring 2020 lockdown and to a hypothetical second "hard" lockdown.

Suggested Citation

  • Severin Reissl & Alessandro Caiani & Francesco Lamperti & Mattia Guerini & Fabio Vanni & Giorgio Fagiolo & Tommaso Ferraresi & Leonardo Ghezzi & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini, 2021. "Assessing the economic effects of lockdowns in Italy: a computational Input-Output approach," LEM Papers Series 2021/03, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    • Handle: RePEc:ssa:lemwps:2021/03
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Dosi, Giovanni & Lamperti, Francesco & Mazzucato, Mariana & Napoletano, Mauro & Roventini, Andrea, 2023. "Mission-oriented policies and the “Entrepreneurial State” at work: An agent-based exploration," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    2. Pichler, Anton & Pangallo, Marco & del Rio-Chanona, R. Maria & Lafond, François & Farmer, J. Doyne, 2022. "Forecasting the propagation of pandemic shocks with a dynamic input-output model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    3. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/401t6job098n79ch91o9giov9d is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Tommaso Ferraresi & Leonardo Ghezzi & Fabio Vanni & Alessandro Caiani & Mattia Guerini & Francesco Lamperti & Severin Reissl & Giorgio Fagiolo & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini, 2021. "On the economic and health impact of the COVID-19 shock on Italian regions: A value chain approach," LEM Papers Series 2021/10, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    5. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/401t6job098n79ch91o9giov9d is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Gian Paolo Clemente & Rosanna Grassi & Giorgio Rizzini, 2022. "The effect of the pandemic on complex socio-economic systems: community detection induced by communicability," Papers 2201.12618, arXiv.org.
    7. Fabio Vanni & David Lambert, 2021. "On the regularity of human mobility patterns at times of a pandemic," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-04103882, HAL.
    8. Fabio Vanni & David Lambert, 2021. "On the regularity of human mobility patterns at times of a pandemic," Papers 2104.08975, arXiv.org.
    9. Cottafava, Dario & Gastaldo, Michele & Quatraro, Francesco & Santhiá, Cristina, 2022. "Modeling economic losses and greenhouse gas emissions reduction during the COVID-19 pandemic: Past, present, and future scenarios for Italy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    10. Roberto Antonietti & Paolo Falbo & Fulvio Fontini & Rosanna Grassi & Giorgio Rizzini, 2021. "International Trade Network: Country centrality and COVID-19 pandemic," Papers 2107.14554, arXiv.org.

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    Keywords

    Input-output; Covid-19; Lockdown; Italy.;
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