Nothing Special   »   [go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/sap/wpaper/wp243.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Artificial Intelligence and Employment: A Look into the Crystal Ball

Author

Listed:
  • Dario Guarascio
  • Jelena Reljic
  • Roman Stoellinger
Abstract
This study provides evidence of the employment impact of AI exposure in European regions, addressing one of the many gaps in the emerging literature on AI's effects on employment in Europe. Building upon the occupation-based AI-exposure indicators proposed by Felten et al. (2018, 2019, 2021), which are mapped to the European occupational classification (ISCO), following Albanesi et al. (2023), we analyse the regional employment dynamics between 2011 and 2018. After controlling for a wide range of supply and demand factors, our findings indicate that, on average, AI exposure has a positive impact on regional employment. Put differently, European regions characterised by a relatively larger share of AI-exposed occupations display, all else being equal and once potential endogeneity concerns are mitigated, a more favourable employment tendency over the period 2011-2018. We also find evidence of a moderating effect of robot density on the AI-employment nexus, which however lacks a causal underpinning.

Suggested Citation

  • Dario Guarascio & Jelena Reljic & Roman Stoellinger, 2023. "Artificial Intelligence and Employment: A Look into the Crystal Ball," Working Papers in Public Economics 243, University of Rome La Sapienza, Department of Economics and Law.
    • Handle: RePEc:sap:wpaper:wp243
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://web.uniroma1.it/dip_ecodir/sites/default/files/wpapers/wp243.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ajay Agrawal & Joshua Gans & Avi Goldfarb, 2019. "Economic Policy for Artificial Intelligence," Innovation Policy and the Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 19(1), pages 139-159.
    2. Jasmine Mondolo, 2022. "The composite link between technological change and employment: A survey of the literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(4), pages 1027-1068, September.
    3. Daron Acemoglu & David Autor & Jonathon Hazell & Pascual Restrepo, 2022. "Artificial Intelligence and Jobs: Evidence from Online Vacancies," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 40(S1), pages 293-340.
    4. Aleksandra Kordalska & Magdalena Olczyk & Roman Stöllinger & Zuzana Zavarská, 2022. "Functional Specialisation in EU Value Chains: Methods for Identifying EU Countries’ Roles in International Production Networks," wiiw Research Reports 461, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    5. Sotiris Blanas & Gino Gancia & Sang Yoon (Tim) Lee, 2019. "Who is afraid of machines?," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 34(100), pages 627-690.
    6. Giacomo Damioli & Vincent Van Roy & Daniel Vertesy & Marco Vivarelli, 2023. "AI technologies and employment: micro evidence from the supply side," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(6), pages 816-821, March.
    7. David H. Autor & Frank Levy & Richard J. Murnane, 2003. "The skill content of recent technological change: an empirical exploration," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
    8. Wolfgang Dauth & Sebastian Findeisen & Jens Suedekum & Nicole Woessner, 2021. "The Adjustment of Labor Markets to Robots [“Skills, Tasks and Technologies: Implications for Employment and Earnings]," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 19(6), pages 3104-3153.
    9. Jelena Reljic & Armanda Cetrulo & Valeria Cirillo & Andrea Coveri, 2023. "Non-standard work and innovation: evidence from European industries," Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(1), pages 136-164, January.
    10. Armanda Cetrulo & Valeria Cirillo & Dario Guarascio, 2019. "Weaker jobs, weaker innovation. Exploring the effects of temporary employment on new products," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(59), pages 6350-6375, December.
    11. Edward Felten & Manav Raj & Robert Seamans, 2021. "Occupational, industry, and geographic exposure to artificial intelligence: A novel dataset and its potential uses," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(12), pages 2195-2217, December.
    12. Erik Brynjolfsson & Tom Mitchell & Daniel Rock, 2018. "What Can Machines Learn, and What Does It Mean for Occupations and the Economy?," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 108, pages 43-47, May.
    13. David H. Autor, 2015. "Why Are There Still So Many Jobs? The History and Future of Workplace Automation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 29(3), pages 3-30, Summer.
    14. Cirillo, Valeria & Evangelista, Rinaldo & Guarascio, Dario & Sostero, Matteo, 2021. "Digitalization, routineness and employment: An exploration on Italian task-based data," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(7).
    15. Tyna Eloundou & Sam Manning & Pamela Mishkin & Daniel Rock, 2023. "GPTs are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of Large Language Models," Papers 2303.10130, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2023.
    16. Dosi, G. & Piva, M. & Virgillito, M.E. & Vivarelli, M., 2021. "Embodied and disembodied technological change: The sectoral patterns of job-creation and job-destruction," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(4).
    17. Edward W. Felten & Manav Raj & Robert Seamans, 2018. "A Method to Link Advances in Artificial Intelligence to Occupational Abilities," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 108, pages 54-57, May.
    18. Ernst Ekkehardt & Merola Rossana & Samaan Daniel, 2019. "Economics of Artificial Intelligence: Implications for the Future of Work," IZA Journal of Labor Policy, Sciendo & Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 9(1), pages 1-35, June.
    19. Ed Felten & Manav Raj & Robert Seamans, 2023. "How will Language Modelers like ChatGPT Affect Occupations and Industries?," Papers 2303.01157, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2023.
    20. Manav Raj & Robert Seamans, 2019. "Primer on artificial intelligence and robotics," Journal of Organization Design, Springer;Organizational Design Community, vol. 8(1), pages 1-14, December.
    21. Bogliacino, Francesco & Pianta, Mario, 2010. "Innovation and Employment: a Reinvestigation using Revised Pavitt classes," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 799-809, July.
    22. Flavio Calvino & Luca Fontanelli, 2023. "A portrait of AI adopters across countries: Firm characteristics, assets’ complementarities and productivity," OECD Science, Technology and Industry Working Papers 2023/02, OECD Publishing.
    23. Zsolt Darvas & Jan Mazza & Catarina Midões, 2019. "How to improve European Union cohesion policy for the next decade," Policy Contributions 30670, Bruegel.
    24. Fabien Petit & Florencia Jaccoud & Tommaso Ciarli, 2023. "Heterogeneous Adjustments of Labor Markets to Automation Technologies," CESifo Working Paper Series 10237, CESifo.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jasmine Mondolo, 2022. "The composite link between technological change and employment: A survey of the literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(4), pages 1027-1068, September.
    2. Pablo Casas & Concepción Román, 2024. "The impact of artificial intelligence in the early retirement decision," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 51(3), pages 583-618, August.
    3. Fossen, Frank M. & McLemore, Trevor & Sorgner, Alina, 2024. "Artificial Intelligence and Entrepreneurship," IZA Discussion Papers 17055, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Dario Guarascio & Alessandro Piccirillo & Jelena Reljic, 2024. "Will robot replace workers? Assessing the impact of robots on employment and wages with meta-analysis," LEM Papers Series 2024/03, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    5. Borsato, Andrea & Lorentz, André, 2023. "The Kaldor–Verdoorn law at the age of robots and AI," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(10).
    6. Kristina McElheran & J. Frank Li & Erik Brynjolfsson & Zachary Kroff & Emin Dinlersoz & Lucia Foster & Nikolas Zolas, 2024. "AI adoption in America: Who, what, and where," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(2), pages 375-415, March.
    7. Jin Liu & Xingchen Xu & Xi Nan & Yongjun Li & Yong Tan, 2023. ""Generate" the Future of Work through AI: Empirical Evidence from Online Labor Markets," Papers 2308.05201, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2024.
    8. Ekaterina Prytkova & Fabien Petit & Deyu Li & Sugat Chaturvedi & Tommaso Ciarli, 2024. "The Employment Impact of Emerging Digital Technologies," CEPEO Working Paper Series 24-01, UCL Centre for Education Policy and Equalising Opportunities, revised Feb 2024.
    9. Albanesi, Stefania & Dias da Silva, Antonio & Jimeno, Juan Francisco & Lamo, Ana & Wabitsch, Alena, 2023. "New Technologies and Jobs in Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 18220, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Leibrecht, Markus & Scharler, Johann & Zhoufu, Yan, 2023. "Automation and unemployment: Does collective bargaining moderate their association?," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 264-276.
    11. Caleb Peppiatt, 2024. "The Future of Work: Inequality, Artificial Intelligence, and What Can Be Done About It. A Literature Review," Papers 2408.13300, arXiv.org.
    12. Ylenia Curci & Nathalie Greenan & Silvia Napolitano, 2024. "Innovating for the good or for the bad. An EU-wide analysis of the impact of technological transformation on job polarisation and unemployment," TEPP Working Paper 2024-02, TEPP.
    13. Songul Tolan & Annarosa Pesole & Fernando Martinez-Plumed & Enrique Fernandez-Macias & José Hernandez-Orallo & Emilia Gomez, 2020. "Measuring the Occupational Impact of AI: Tasks, Cognitive Abilities and AI Benchmarks," JRC Working Papers on Labour, Education and Technology 2020-02, Joint Research Centre.
    14. Jason Furman & Robert Seamans, 2019. "AI and the Economy," Innovation Policy and the Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 19(1), pages 161-191.
    15. Shun Yiu & Rob Seamans & Manav Raj & Ted Liu, 2024. "Strategic Responses to Technological Change: Evidence from ChatGPT and Upwork," Papers 2403.15262, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2024.
    16. Fossen, Frank M. & Sorgner, Alina, 2019. "New Digital Technologies and Heterogeneous Employment and Wage Dynamics in the United States: Evidence from Individual-Level Data," IZA Discussion Papers 12242, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    17. Arntz, Melanie & Genz, Sabrina & Gregory, Terry & Lehmer, Florian & Zierahn-Weilage, Ulrich, 2024. "De-Routinization in the Fourth Industrial Revolution - Firm-Level Evidence," IZA Discussion Papers 16740, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    18. Barbieri, Laura & Mussida, Chiara & Piva, Mariacristina & Vivarelli, Marco, 2019. "Testing the employment and skill impact of new technologies: A survey and some methodological issues," MERIT Working Papers 2019-032, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    19. Tyna Eloundou & Sam Manning & Pamela Mishkin & Daniel Rock, 2023. "GPTs are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of Large Language Models," Papers 2303.10130, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2023.
    20. Fossen, Frank M. & Sorgner, Alina, 2022. "New digital technologies and heterogeneous wage and employment dynamics in the United States: Evidence from individual-level data," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Artificial intelligence; industrial robots; labour; regional employment; occupations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • R1 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sap:wpaper:wp243. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Luisa Giuriato (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dprosit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.