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Sovereign Default Resolution Through Maturity Extension

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  • Gabriel Mihalache
Abstract
Sovereign default episodes are eventually resolved by restructuring the debt, through negotiations with the lenders, and implemented by bond swaps and resumption of debt service payments. This process partially compensate lenders for their losses and provide debt relief for the sovereign. The empirical literature studying these events emphasizes that the bulk of debt relief is implemented by lengthening the maturity of debt, rather than changing face value. Countries exit renegotiation with less debt but with a greater share of long-term debt in total, compared to the maturity structure at the time of default. We augment a standard maturity choice model with a post-default renegotiation phase and study whether it can replicate this observed maturity extension in the data. The model is successful in generating this and other key features of renegotiations and maturity choice, but critically only when we assume that countries continue to be temporarily excluded from financial markets after renegotiation, as in the data. A version of the model where the sovereign can immediately resume borrowing following renegotiation features instead a counterfactual reduction in maturity. We interpret these findings in terms of the tension between the sovereign’s preference for consumption smoothing and the inefficiency of debt dilution inherent in long-term debt.

Suggested Citation

  • Gabriel Mihalache, 2017. "Sovereign Default Resolution Through Maturity Extension," Department of Economics Working Papers 17-08, Stony Brook University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:nys:sunysb:17-08
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    Cited by:

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    3. Marina Azzimonti & Laura Karpuska & Gabriel Mihalache, 2023. "Bargaining Over Taxes And Entitlements In The Era Of Unequal Growth," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 64(3), pages 893-941, August.
    4. Maximiliano Dvorkin & Emircan Yurdagul & Horacio Sapriza & Juan Sanchez, 2018. "Sovereign Debt Restructuring: A Dynamic Discrete Choice Approach," 2018 Meeting Papers 1273, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    5. Arce, Fernando, 2021. "Private Overborrowing under Sovereign Risk," MPRA Paper 113176, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Xavier Mateos-Planas & Jose-Victor Rios-Rull & Cristina Arellano, 2013. "Partial Default," 2013 Meeting Papers 765, Society for Economic Dynamics.
      • Cristina Arellano & Xavier Mateos-Planas & José-Víctor Ríos-Rull, 2019. "Partial Default," NBER Working Papers 26076, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
      • Cristina Arellano & Xavier Mateos-Planas & José-Víctor Ríos-Rull, 2019. "Partial Default," Staff Report 589, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
      • Cristina Arellano & Xavier Mateos-Planas & Jose-Victor Rios-Rull, 2019. "Partial Default," Discussion Papers 1911, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    7. Maximiliano Dvorkin & Juan M. Sánchez & Horacio Sapriza & Emircan Yurdagul, 2021. "Sovereign Debt Restructurings," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 26-77, April.
    8. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Erce, Aitor & Uy, Timothy, 2018. "Debt Sustainability and the Terms of Official Support," CEPR Discussion Papers 13292, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez & Yasin Kürsat Önder & Francisco Roch, 2022. "Sovereign Cocos," Working Papers 139, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
      • Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Mr. Leonardo Martinez & Kursat Onder & Mr. Francisco Roch, 2022. "Sovereign Cocos," IMF Working Papers 2022/078, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Yasin Kür¸sat Önder & Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas & Jose Villegas, 2023. "Debt Moratorium: Theory and Evidence," Borradores de Economia 1253, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    11. Nada Azmy Elberry & Frank Naert & Stijn Goeminne, 2023. "Optimal public debt composition during debt crises: A review of theoretical literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 351-376, April.
    12. Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez & Yasin Kürsat Önder & Francisco Roch, 2024. "Sovereign CoCos and debt forgiveness," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 24/1096, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    13. Bernardo Guimaraes & Lucas Tumkus, 2020. "On the costs of sovereign default in quantitative models," Discussion Papers 2021, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    14. Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Mr. Leonardo Martinez & Cesar Sosa Padilla, 2020. "Sovereign Debt Standstills," IMF Working Papers 2020/290, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Mallucci, Enrico, 2022. "Natural disasters, climate change, and sovereign risk," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    16. Mitra, Nirvana, 2020. "Political Constraints and Sovereign Default Premia," MPRA Paper 104172, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    JEL classification:

    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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