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Credit When You Need It

Author

Listed:
  • Benjamin L. Collier
  • Daniel A. Hartley
  • Benjamin J. Keys
  • Jing Xian Ng
Abstract
We estimate the causal effect of emergency credit on households' finances after a negative shock. To do so, we link application data from the U.S. Federal Disaster Loan program, which provides loans to households that have uninsured damages from a federally-declared natural disaster, to a panel of credit records before and after the shock. We exploit a discontinuity in the loan approval rules that led applicants with debt-to-income ratios below 40% to be differentially likely to be approved. Using an instrumented difference-in-differences research design, we find that credit provision at the time of a shock significantly reduces severe financial distress, decreasing the likelihood of filing for bankruptcy by 61% in the three years following the disaster. We explore mechanisms using additional quasi-experimental variation in interest rates, finding support for a liquidity-based explanation. Credit provision in a time of crisis has real consumption effects in the form of additional car purchases even 3 years after loan receipt. Our findings suggest that well-timed liquidity provided to households in acute need can have substantial and persistent positive effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Benjamin L. Collier & Daniel A. Hartley & Benjamin J. Keys & Jing Xian Ng, 2024. "Credit When You Need It," NBER Working Papers 32845, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32845
    Note: CF EEE PE
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • H81 - Public Economics - - Miscellaneous Issues - - - Governmental Loans; Loan Guarantees; Credits; Grants; Bailouts

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