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Optimal Time-Consistent Monetary, Fiscal and Debt Maturity Policy

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  • Eric M. Leeper
  • Campbell B. Leith
  • Ding Liu
Abstract
The textbook optimal policy response to an increase in government debt is simple—monetary policy should actively target inflation, and fiscal policy should smooth taxes while ensuring debt sustainability. Such policy prescriptions presuppose an ability to commit. Without that ability, the temptation to use inflation surprises to offset monopoly and tax distortions, as well as to reduce the real value of government debt, creates a state-dependent inflationary bias problem. High debt levels and short-term debt exacerbate the inflation bias. But this produces a debt stabilization bias because the policy maker wishes to deviate from the tax smoothing policies typically pursued under commitment, by returning government debt to steady-state. As a result, the response to shocks in New Keynesian models can be radically different, particularly when government debt levels are high.

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  • Eric M. Leeper & Campbell B. Leith & Ding Liu, 2019. "Optimal Time-Consistent Monetary, Fiscal and Debt Maturity Policy," NBER Working Papers 25658, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25658
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    Cited by:

    1. Tatiana Kirsanova & Campbell Leith & Ding Liu, 2024. "Central Bank Independence, Government Debt and the Re-Normalization of Interest Rates," Working Papers 2024_10, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    2. Boris Chafwehé & Charles de Beauffort & Rigas Oikonomou, 2022. "Optimal Monetary Policy Rules in the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2022026, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    3. Pintér, Gábor, 2022. "The procyclicality of inflation-linked debt," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 218(C).
    4. Leith, Campbell & Liu, Ding, 2016. "The inflation bias under Calvo and Rotemberg pricing," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 283-297.
    5. Harrison, Richard, 2021. "Flexible inflation targeting with active fiscal policy," Bank of England working papers 928, Bank of England.
    6. Guillermo Santos, 2022. "Optimal fiscal and monetary policy with preference over safe assets," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2022021, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    7. Busato, Francesco & Varlese, Monica & Ulloa Severino, Claudia, 2022. "Public debt heterogeneity at country level: an empirical analysis," MPRA Paper 113812, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Leeper, Eric M. & Zhou, Xuan, 2021. "Inflation’s role in optimal monetary-fiscal policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 1-18.
    9. Billi , Roberto M. & Walsh, Carl E., 2022. "Seemingly Irresponsible but Welfare Improving Fiscal Policy at the Lower Bound," Working Paper Series 410, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    10. Boris Chafwehé & Charles de Beauffort & Rigas Oikonomou, 2021. "Debt Management in a World of Fiscal Dominance," JRC Working Papers on Taxation & Structural Reforms 2021-11, Joint Research Centre.
    11. Campbell Leith & Eric Leeper, 2016. "Understanding Inflation as a Joint Monetary-Fiscal Phenomenon," Working Papers 2016_01, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    12. Max Ole Liemen & Olaf Posch, 2022. "FTPL and the Maturity Structure of Government Debt in the New Keynesian Model," CESifo Working Paper Series 9840, CESifo.
    13. Saurabh Sharma & Ipsita Padhi & Sarat Dhal, 2022. "Monetary-fiscal coordination: when, why and how?," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 40(4), pages 661-686, September.
    14. Bai, Yuting & Kirsanova, Tatiana & Leith, Campbell, 2017. "Nominal targeting in an economy with government debt," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 103-125.
    15. Pintér, Gábor, 2023. "Inflation and uncertainty in New Keynesian models: A note," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    16. Corhay, Alexandre & Kind, Thilo & Kung, Howard & Morales, Gonzalo, 2021. "Discount rates, debt maturity, and the fiscal theory," SAFE Working Paper Series 323, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    17. Henrique S. Basso & James Costain, 2017. "Fiscal delegation in a monetary union: instrument assignment and stabilization properties," Working Papers 1710, Banco de España.
    18. Rodolfo E. Manuelli & Juan I. Vizcaino, 2017. "Monetary Policy with Declining Deficits: Theory and an Application to Recent Argentine Monetary Policy," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 99(4), pages 351-375.

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    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy

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