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Did the Renewable Fuel Standard Shift Market Expectations of the Price of Ethanol?

Author

Listed:
  • Christiane J.S. Baumeister
  • Reinhard Ellwanger
  • Lutz Kilian
Abstract
It is commonly believed that the response of the price of corn ethanol (and hence of the price of corn) to shifts in biofuel policies operates in part through market expectations and shifts in storage demand, yet to date it has proved difficult to measure these expectations and to empirically evaluate this view. We quantify the extent to which price changes were anticipated by the market, the extent to which they were unanticipated, and how the risk premium in these markets has evolved. We show that the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) increased ethanol price expectations by as much $1.50 initially, raising ethanol storage demand starting and causing an increase in the price of ethanol. There is no conclusive evidence that the tightening of the RFS in 2008 shifted market expectations, but our analysis suggests that policy uncertainty about how to deal with the blend wall raised the risk premium in the ethanol futures market in mid-2013 by as much as 50 cents at longer horizons. Finally, we present evidence against a tight link from ethanol price expectations to corn price expectations and hence to the storage demand for corn in 2005-06.

Suggested Citation

  • Christiane J.S. Baumeister & Reinhard Ellwanger & Lutz Kilian, 2017. "Did the Renewable Fuel Standard Shift Market Expectations of the Price of Ethanol?," NBER Working Papers 23752, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23752
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John Coglianese & Lucas W. Davis & Lutz Kilian & James H. Stock, 2017. "Anticipation, Tax Avoidance, and the Price Elasticity of Gasoline Demand," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(1), pages 1-15, January.
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    19. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2014. "Do oil price increases cause higher food prices? [Biofuels, binding constraints, and agricultural commodity price volatility]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 29(80), pages 691-747.
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    Cited by:

    1. Erten Bilge & Tuzcuoglu Kerem, 2018. "Output Effects of Global Food Commodity Shocks," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-18, June.
    2. Pozo, Veronica F. & Bejan, Vladimir & Bachmeier, Lance, 2017. "Are Price Transmissions between U.S. Energy and Corn Markets Asymmetric?," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 258232, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    3. Fretheim, Torun, 2019. "An empirical analysis of the correlation between large daily changes in grain and oil futures prices," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 14(C), pages 66-75.
    4. Christiane Baumeister, 2021. "Measuring Market Expectations," Working Papers 202163, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    5. Curtis McKnight & Feng Qiu & Marty Luckert & Grant Hauer, 2021. "Prices for a second‐generation biofuel industry in Canada: Market linkages between Canadian wheat and US energy and agricultural commodities," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 69(3), pages 337-351, September.
    6. Maryam Movahedifar & Hossein Hassani & Masoud Yarmohammadi & Mahdi Kalantari & Rangan Gupta, 2021. "A robust approach for outlier imputation: Singular Spectrum Decomposition," Working Papers 202164, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    7. Efthymios G. Pavlidis & Ivan Paya & David A. Peel, 2018. "Using Market Expectations to Test for Speculative Bubbles in the Crude Oil Market," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(5), pages 833-856, August.
    8. Lawell, Cynthia Lin & Yi, Fujin & Thome, Karen E, 2017. "The Effects of Subsidies and Mandates: A Dynamic Model of the Ethanol Industry," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt73n0t4pv, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy; Animal Welfare Policy
    • Q28 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Government Policy
    • Q35 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Hydrocarbon Resources
    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy

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