Nothing Special   »   [go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/23408.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Male Earnings, Marriageable Men, and Nonmarital Fertility: Evidence from the Fracking Boom

Author

Listed:
  • Melissa S. Kearney
  • Riley Wilson
Abstract
There has been a well-documented retreat from marriage among less educated individuals in the U.S. and non-marital childbearing has become the norm among young mothers and mothers with low levels of education. One hypothesis is that the declining economic position of men in these populations is at least partially responsible for these trends. That leads to the reverse hypothesis that an increase in potential earnings of less-educated men would correspondingly lead to an increase in marriage and a reduction in non-marital births. To investigate this possibility, we empirically exploit the positive economic shock associated with localized “fracking booms” throughout the U.S. in recent decades. We confirm that these localized fracking booms led to increased wages for non-college-educated men. A reduced form analysis reveals that in response to local-area fracking production, both marital and non-marital births increase and there is no evidence of an increase in marriage rates. The pattern of results is consistent with positive income effects on births, but no associated increase in marriage. We compare our findings to the family formation response to the Appalachian coal boom experience of the 1970s and 1980s, when it appears that marital births and marriage rates increased, but non-marital births did not. This contrast potentially suggests important interactions between economic forces and social context.

Suggested Citation

  • Melissa S. Kearney & Riley Wilson, 2017. "Male Earnings, Marriageable Men, and Nonmarital Fertility: Evidence from the Fracking Boom," NBER Working Papers 23408, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23408
    Note: CH EEE LS PE
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w23408.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lucija Muehlenbachs & Elisheba Spiller & Christopher Timmins, 2015. "The Housing Market Impacts of Shale Gas Development," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(12), pages 3633-3659, December.
    2. Dettling, Lisa J. & Kearney, Melissa S., 2014. "House prices and birth rates: The impact of the real estate market on the decision to have a baby," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 82-100.
    3. Peter Maniloff & Ralph Mastromonaco, 2014. "The Local Economic Impacts of Hydraulic Fracturing and Determinants of Dutch Disease," Working Papers 2014-08, Colorado School of Mines, Division of Economics and Business.
    4. David H. Autor & David Dorn, 2013. "The Growth of Low-Skill Service Jobs and the Polarization of the US Labor Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(5), pages 1553-1597, August.
    5. David Autor & David Dorn & Gordon Hanson, 2019. "When Work Disappears: Manufacturing Decline and the Falling Marriage Market Value of Young Men," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 1(2), pages 161-178, September.
    6. Alexander W. Bartik & Janet Currie & Michael Greenstone & Christopher R. Knittel, 2019. "The Local Economic and Welfare Consequences of Hydraulic Fracturing," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(4), pages 105-155, October.
    7. Jason M. Lindo, 2010. "Are Children Really Inferior Goods? Evidence from Displacement-Driven Income Shocks," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 45(2).
    8. Tara Watson & Sara McLanahan, 2011. "Marriage Meets the Joneses: Relative Income, Identity, and Marital Status," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 46(3), pages 482-517.
    9. Gary S. Becker, 1960. "An Economic Analysis of Fertility," NBER Chapters, in: Demographic and Economic Change in Developed Countries, pages 209-240, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Elizabeth U. Cascio & Ayushi Narayan, 2022. "Who Needs a Fracking Education? The Educational Response to Low-Skill-Biased Technological Change," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 75(1), pages 56-89, January.
    11. Michael F. Lovenheim & Kevin J. Mumford, 2013. "Do Family Wealth Shocks Affect Fertility Choices? Evidence from the Housing Market," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(2), pages 464-475, May.
    12. Browning, Martin & Francois Bourguignon & Pierre-Andre Chiappori & Valerie Lechene, 1994. "Income and Outcomes: A Structural Model of Intrahousehold Allocation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(6), pages 1067-1096, December.
    13. Kerwin Kofi Charles & Ming Ching Luoh, 2010. "Male Incarceration, the Marriage Market, and Female Outcomes," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(3), pages 614-627, August.
    14. Dorn, David & Autor, David & Hanson, Gordon, 2017. "When Work Disappears: Manufacturing Decline and the Falling Marriage-Market Value of Men," CEPR Discussion Papers 11878, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. James Feyrer & Erin T. Mansur & Bruce Sacerdote, 2017. "Geographic Dispersion of Economic Shocks: Evidence from the Fracking Revolution," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(4), pages 1313-1334, April.
    16. Gary S. Becker, 1974. "A Theory of Marriage," NBER Chapters, in: Economics of the Family: Marriage, Children, and Human Capital, pages 299-351, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Sathya Gopalakrishnan & H. Allen Klaiber, 2014. "Is the Shale Energy Boom a Bust for Nearby Residents? Evidence from Housing Values in Pennsylvania," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 96(1), pages 43-66.
    18. Thiemo Fetzer, 2014. "Fracking Growth," CEP Discussion Papers dp1278, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Osea Giuntella & Lorenzo Rotunno & Luca Stella, 2021. "Trade Shocks, Fertility, and Marital Behavior," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 1126, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    2. Liepmann, Hannah, 2018. "The impact of a negative labor demand shock on fertility – Evidence from the fall of the Berlin Wall," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 210-224.
    3. Gordon B. Dahl & Runjing Lu & William Mullins, 2022. "Partisan Fertility and Presidential Elections," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 4(4), pages 473-490, December.
    4. Jason P. Brown, 2021. "Response of Consumer Debt to Income Shocks: The Case of Energy Booms and Busts," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(7), pages 1629-1675, October.
    5. Jason P. Brown & Timothy Fitzgerald & Jeremy G. Weber, 2019. "Does Resource Ownership Matter? Oil and Gas Royalties and the Income Effect of Extraction," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 6(6), pages 1039-1064.
    6. Fletcher, Jason M. & Polos, Jessica, 2017. "Nonmarital and Teen Fertility," IZA Discussion Papers 10833, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. Fleming, David & Komarek, Timothy & Partridge, Mark & Measham, Thomas, 2015. "The Booming Socioeconomic Impacts of Shale: A Review of Findings and Methods in the Empirical Literature," MPRA Paper 68487, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Braga, Breno, 2018. "The Effects of Trade Exposure on Marriage and Fertility Choices: Evidence from Brazil," IZA Discussion Papers 11875, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. Lade, Gabriel E. & Rudik, Ivan, 2020. "Costs of inefficient regulation: Evidence from the Bakken," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    10. Grant D. Jacobsen, 2019. "Who Wins In An Energy Boom? Evidence From Wage Rates And Housing," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 57(1), pages 9-32, January.
    11. Jason M. Lindo & Krishna Regmi & Isaac Swensen, 2020. "Stable Income, Stable Family," NBER Working Papers 27753, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Liu, Jing & Xing, Chunbing & Zhang, Qiong, 2020. "House price, fertility rates and reproductive intentions," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    13. Wrenn, Douglas H. & Yi, Junjian & Zhang, Bo, 2019. "House prices and marriage entry in China," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 118-130.
    14. Diemer, Andreas, 2020. "Spatial diffusion of local economic shocks in social networks: evidence from the US fracking boom," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 105868, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    15. Marchand, Joseph & Weber, Jeremy, 2017. "The Local Effects of the Texas Shale Boom on Schools, Students, and Teachers," Working Papers 2017-12, University of Alberta, Department of Economics, revised 31 Jan 2019.
    16. Osea Giuntella & Lorenzo Rotunno & Luca Stella, 2022. "Globalization, Fertility and Marital Behavior in a Lowest-Low Fertility Setting," CESifo Working Paper Series 9755, CESifo.
    17. McCollum, Meagan & Upton, Gregory B., 2018. "Local labor market shocks and residential mortgage payments: Evidence from shale oil and gas booms," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 162-197.
    18. Fergus Cumming & Lisa Dettling, 2024. "Monetary Policy and Birth Rates: The Effect of Mortgage Rate Pass-Through on Fertility," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 91(1), pages 229-258.
    19. Melissa S. Kearney & Phillip B. Levine, 2023. "The US COVID-19 baby bust and rebound," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 36(4), pages 2145-2168, October.
    20. Nathan Seltzer, 2019. "Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 56(4), pages 1463-1493, August.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I3 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty
    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • J12 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Marriage; Marital Dissolution; Family Structure
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J18 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Public Policy
    • R2 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23408. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.