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Adult Mortality Five Years after a Natural Disaster: Evidence from the Indian Ocean Tsunami

Author

Listed:
  • Jessica Y. Ho
  • Elizabeth Frankenberg
  • Cecep Sumantri
  • Duncan Thomas
Abstract
Exposure to extreme events has been hypothesized to affect subsequent mortality because of mortality selection and scarring effects of the event itself. We examine survival at and in the five years after the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami for a population-representative sample of residents of Aceh, Indonesia who were differentially exposed to the disaster. For this population, the dynamics of selection and scarring are a complex function of the degree of tsunami impact in the community, the nature of individual exposures, age at exposure, and gender. Among individuals from tsunami-affected communities we find evidence for positive mortality selection among older individuals, with stronger effects for males than for females, and that this selection dominates any scarring impact of stressful exposures that elevate mortality. Among individuals from other communities, where mortality selection does not play a role, there is evidence of scarring with property loss associated with elevated mortality risks in the five years after the disaster among adults age 50 or older at the time of the disaster.

Suggested Citation

  • Jessica Y. Ho & Elizabeth Frankenberg & Cecep Sumantri & Duncan Thomas, 2016. "Adult Mortality Five Years after a Natural Disaster: Evidence from the Indian Ocean Tsunami," NBER Working Papers 22317, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22317
    Note: AG DEV EH
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    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w22317.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Elizabeth Frankenberg & Thomas Gillespie & Samuel Preston & Bondan Sikoki & Duncan Thomas, 2011. "Mortality, The Family and The Indian Ocean Tsunami," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(554), pages 162-182, August.
    2. Dora Costa, 2012. "Scarring and Mortality Selection Among Civil War POWs: A Long-Term Mortality, Morbidity, and Socioeconomic Follow-Up," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 49(4), pages 1185-1206, November.
    3. Song, Shige, 2010. "Mortality consequences of the 1959-1961 Great Leap Forward famine in China: Debilitation, selection, and mortality crossovers," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 71(3), pages 551-558, August.
    4. Doocy, S. & Gorokhovich, Y. & Burnham, G. & Balk, D. & Robinson, C., 2007. "Tsunami mortality estimates and vulnerability mapping in Aceh, Indonesia," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 97(S1), pages 146-151.
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    Cited by:

    1. Krzysztof Karbownik & Anthony Wray, 2019. "Long-Run Consequences of Exposure to Natural Disasters," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 37(3), pages 949-1007.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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