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Did Community Rating Induce an Adverse Selection Death Spiral? Evidencefrom New York, Pennsylvania and Connecticut

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  • Thomas Buchmueller
  • John DiNardo
Abstract
Using data from the 1987 to 1996 March Current Population Surveys we find no evidence for the conventional wisdom' that the imposition of pure community rating leads to an adverse selection death spiral.' Specifically, the percentage of individuals in small groups covered by health insurance did not fall in New York (which enacted community rating legislation in 1993) relative to either Pennsylvania (which enacted no insurance reform) or Connecticut (which enacted moderate insurance reform without imposing community rating). Consistent with the predictions of the simple Rothschild and Stiglitz (1975) framework, however, we find that the New York reforms appear to have had a significant impact on the structure of the New York insurance market. Specifically, New York has experienced a dramatic shift away from indemnity insurance toward HMOs. While this shift took place during a period of nationwide increases in the percentage with managed care, the increase in HMO penetration in New York's small group and individual markets was significantly greater than in Pennsylvania or Connecticut.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas Buchmueller & John DiNardo, 1999. "Did Community Rating Induce an Adverse Selection Death Spiral? Evidencefrom New York, Pennsylvania and Connecticut," NBER Working Papers 6872, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:6872
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Thomas Buchmueller & John Dinardo, 2002. "Did Community Rating Induce an Adverse Selection Death Spiral? Evidence from New York, Pennsylvania, and Connecticut," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(1), pages 280-294, March.
    2. Mark C. Berger & Dan A. Black & Frank A. Scott, 1998. "How Well Do We Measure Employer‐Provided Health Insurance Coverage?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 16(3), pages 356-367, July.
    3. Shore-Sheppard, Lara & Buchmueller, Thomas C. & Jensen, Gail A., 2000. "Medicaid and crowding out of private insurance: a re-examination using firm level data," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 61-91, January.
    4. David M. Cutler & Richard J. Zeckhauser, 1998. "Adverse Selection in Health Insurance," NBER Chapters, in: Frontiers in Health Policy Research, Volume 1, pages 1-32, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. David M. Cutler & Jonathan Gruber, 1996. "Does Public Insurance Crowd out Private Insurance?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 111(2), pages 391-430.
    6. David M. Cutler & Sarah J. Reber, 1998. "Paying for Health Insurance: The Trade-Off between Competition and Adverse Selection," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 113(2), pages 433-466.
    7. Michael Rothschild & Joseph Stiglitz, 1976. "Equilibrium in Competitive Insurance Markets: An Essay on the Economics of Imperfect Information," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 90(4), pages 629-649.
    8. Wilson, Charles, 1977. "A model of insurance markets with incomplete information," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 167-207, December.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I11 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Analysis of Health Care Markets
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

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