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Does pricing carbon mitigate climate change? Firm-level evidence from the European Union emissions trading scheme

Author

Listed:
  • Mirabelle Muûls

    (Research and Economics Department, NBB and Imperial College London)

  • Jonathan Colmer

    (University of Virginia)

  • Ralf Martin

    (Imperial College London)

  • Ulrich J. Wagner

    (University of Mannheim)

Abstract
In theory, market-based regulatory instruments correct market failures at least cost. However, evidence on their efficacy remains scarce. Using administrative data, we estimate that, on average, the EU ETS – the world’s first and largest market-based climate policy – induced regulated manufacturing firms to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 14-16% with no detectable contractions in economic activity. We find no evidence of outsourcing to unregulated firms or markets; instead firms made targeted investments, reducing the emissions intensity of production. These results indicate that the EU ETS induced global emissions reductions, a necessary and sufficient condition for mitigating climate change. We show that the absence of any negative economic effects can be rationalized in a model where inattentive firms underinvest in energy-saving capital prior to regulation. Guided by the predictions of this model, we classify firms with low initial productivity or high energy intensity as potentially inattentive. We estimate larger reductions in emissions and increases in economic activity for those firms, consistent with regulation-induced cost savings or efficiency increases.

Suggested Citation

  • Mirabelle Muûls & Jonathan Colmer & Ralf Martin & Ulrich J. Wagner, 2023. "Does pricing carbon mitigate climate change? Firm-level evidence from the European Union emissions trading scheme," Working Paper Research 438, National Bank of Belgium.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbb:reswpp:202306-438
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    Cited by:

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    2. von Graevenitz, Kathrine & Rottner, Elisa & Richter, Philipp M., 2023. "Is Germany becoming the European pollution haven?," ZEW Discussion Papers 23-069, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    3. Hintermann, Beat & Zarkovic, Maja & Di Maria, Corrado & Wagner, Ulrich J., 2020. "The effect of climate policy on productivity and cost pass-through in the German manufacturing sector," Working papers 2020/11, Faculty of Business and Economics - University of Basel.
    4. Beck, Ulrik R. & Kruse-Andersen, Peter K. & Stewart, Louis B., 2023. "Carbon leakage in a small open economy: The importance of international climate policies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    5. Michele Fioretti, 2022. "Caring or Pretending to Care? Social Impact, Firms' Objectives, and Welfare (former title: Social Responsibility and Firm's Objectives)," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03393065, HAL.
    6. Jaraitė, Jūratė & Kurtyka, Oliwia & Ollivier, Hélène, 2022. "Take a ride on the (not so) green side: How do CDM projects affect Indian manufacturing firms’ environmental performance?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    7. Aleksandar Zaklan, 2023. "Coase and Cap-and-Trade: Evidence on the Independence Property from the European Carbon Market," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 526-558, May.
    8. Dechezleprêtre, Antoine & Gennaioli, Caterina & Martin, Ralf & Muûls, Mirabelle & Stoerk, Thomas, 2022. "Searching for carbon leaks in multinational companies," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    9. Kathrine von Graevenitz & Elisa Rottner, 2024. "Climate Policies and Electricity Prices: To Abate or to Generate?," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2024_504, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    10. Rafaty, R. & Dolphin, G. & Pretis, F., 2020. "Carbon pricing and the elasticity of CO2 emissions," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 20116, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    11. Li, Changsheng & Qi, Yaping & Liu, Shaohui & Wang, Xu, 2022. "Do carbon ETS pilots improve cities' green total factor productivity? Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    12. Kim, Pyung & Bae, Hyunhoe, 2022. "Do firms respond differently to the carbon pricing by industrial sector? How and why? A comparison between manufacturing and electricity generation sectors using firm-level panel data in Korea," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    13. Greve, Hannes & Kis-Katos, Krisztina & Renner, Sebastian, 2021. "Energy prices, generators, and the (environmental) performance of manufacturing firms: Evidence from Indonesia," VfS Annual Conference 2021 (Virtual Conference): Climate Economics 242382, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    14. D’Arcangelo, Filippo Maria & Pavan, Giulia & Calligaris, Sara, 2022. "The Impact of the European Carbon Market on Firm Productivity: Evidence from Italian Manufacturing Firms," FEEM Working Papers 324170, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    15. Rottner, Elisa, 2023. "Do climate policies lead to outsourcing? Evidence from firm-level imports," ZEW Discussion Papers 23-070, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    16. Hernandez-Cortes, Danae & Meng, Kyle C., 2023. "Do environmental markets cause environmental injustice? Evidence from California’s carbon market," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    17. Wan, Panbing & Zhang, ZhongXiang & Chen, Lin, 2024. "Environmental co-benefits of climate mitigation: Evidence from clean development mechanism projects in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    18. Stefano Carattini & Giseong Kim & Givi Melkadze & Aude Pommeret, 2023. "Carbon Taxes and Tariffs, Financial Frictions, and International Spillovers," CESifo Working Paper Series 10851, CESifo.
    19. Filippo Maria D’Arcangelo & Giulia Pavan & Sara Calligaris, 2022. "The Impact of the European Carbon Market on Firm Productivity: Evidence from Italian Manufacturing Firms," Working Papers 2022.24, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    20. Marion Leroutier, 2021. "Carbon Pricing and Power Sector Decarbonisation: Evidence from the UK," Working Papers halshs-03265636, HAL.
    21. Marion Leroutier, 2021. "Carbon Pricing and Power Sector Decarbonisation: Evidence from the UK," CIRED Working Papers halshs-03265636, HAL.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    cap-and-trade; carbon leakage; investment; climate policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy
    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
    • L50 - Industrial Organization - - Regulation and Industrial Policy - - - General
    • F18 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Environment

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