Nothing Special   »   [go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/luc/wpaper/19-14.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Climate Change, Migration and Voice - An Explanation for the Immobility Paradox

Author

Listed:
  • Michel Beine

    (CREA, Université du Luxembourg)

  • Ilan Noy

    (Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand)

  • Christopher Parsons

    (University of Western Australia)

Abstract
This paper sheds light on the apparent paradox, wherein populations adversely affected by climatic conditions fail to migrate as much as would otherwise be expected. Drawing on Hirschman’s treatise on Exit, Voice and Loyalty, we develop a simple model, which highlights the theoretical case for a substitution effect between voicing and emigration. We subsequently provide causal evidence of voicing representing a new mechanism through which countries adapt to climate change, implementing wage differentials and changes in visa policies at destination as instruments. More intense voicing, as captured by greater numbers of press reports, is associated with lower emigration rates. This substitution effect holds for both internal and international voicing. Our results suggest that restrictions on mobility could result in increasing voicing, both within and between countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Michel Beine & Ilan Noy & Christopher Parsons, 2019. "Climate Change, Migration and Voice - An Explanation for the Immobility Paradox," DEM Discussion Paper Series 19-14, Department of Economics at the University of Luxembourg.
    • Handle: RePEc:luc:wpaper:19-14
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://wwwen-archive.uni.lu/content/download/120557/1401355/file/2019_14%20Climate%20Change,%20Migration%20and%20Voice%20-%20An%20Explanation%20for%20the%20Immobility%20Paradox.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cameron,A. Colin & Trivedi,Pravin K., 2013. "Regression Analysis of Count Data," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107667273, September.
    2. Docquier, Frédéric & Lodigiani, Elisabetta & Rapoport, Hillel & Schiff, Maurice, 2016. "Emigration and democracy," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 209-223.
    3. Thierry Baudassé & Rémi Bazillier & Ismaël Issifou, 2018. "Migration And Institutions: Exit And Voice (From Abroad)?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(3), pages 727-766, July.
    4. Ingrid Dallmann & Katrin Millock, 2017. "Climate Variability and Inter-State Migration in India," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 63(4), pages 560-594.
    5. Beine, Michel & Jeusette, Lionel, 2021. "A meta-analysis of the literature on climate change and migration," Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 87(3), pages 293-344, September.
    6. Bertoli, Simone & Fernández-Huertas Moraga, Jesús, 2015. "The size of the cliff at the border," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 1-6.
    7. Toman Barsbai & Hillel Rapoport & Andreas Steinmayr & Christoph Trebesch, 2017. "The Effect of Labor Migration on the Diffusion of Democracy: Evidence from a Former Soviet Republic," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 36-69, July.
    8. Sam Fankhauser, 2017. "Adaptation to Climate Change," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 9(1), pages 209-230, October.
    9. Mueller, Valerie & Sheriff, Glenn & Dou, Xiaoya & Gray, Clark, 2020. "Temporary migration and climate variation in eastern Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    10. Chauvet, Lisa & Mercier, Marion, 2014. "Do return migrants transfer political norms to their origin country? Evidence from Mali," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 630-651.
    11. Ingrid Dallmann & Katrin Millock, 2017. "Climate Variability and Inter-State Migration in India," Post-Print halshs-01630310, HAL.
    12. Richard Black & Stephen R. G. Bennett & Sandy M. Thomas & John R. Beddington, 2011. "Migration as adaptation," Nature, Nature, vol. 478(7370), pages 447-449, October.
    13. Théo Benonnier & Katrin Millock & Vis Taraz, 2019. "Climate change, migration, and irrigation," Working Papers halshs-02107098, HAL.
    14. Cattaneo, Cristina & Peri, Giovanni, 2016. "The migration response to increasing temperatures," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 127-146.
    15. Antonio Spilimbergo, 2009. "Democracy and Foreign Education," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(1), pages 528-543, March.
    16. Michał Burzyński & Christoph Deuster & Frédéric Docquier & Jaime de Melo, 2022. "Climate Change, Inequality, and Human Migration," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 20(3), pages 1145-1197.
    17. Katrin Millock, 2015. "Migration and Environment," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-01302611, HAL.
    18. Caglar Ozden & Christopher R. Parsons & Maurice Schiff & Terrie L. Walmsley, 2011. "Where on Earth is Everybody? The Evolution of Global Bilateral Migration 1960-2000," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 25(1), pages 12-56, May.
    19. repec:dau:papers:123456789/12585 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Michael Berlemann & Max Friedrich Steinhardt, 2017. "Climate Change, Natural Disasters, and Migration—a Survey of the Empirical Evidence," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 63(4), pages 353-385.
    21. Mathias Czaika & Hein de Haas, 2017. "The Effect of Visas on Migration Processes," International Migration Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(4), pages 893-926, December.
    22. Mounir Karadja & Erik Prawitz, 2019. "Exit, Voice, and Political Change: Evidence from Swedish Mass Migration to the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 127(4), pages 1864-1925.
    23. George J. Borjas, 2021. "Self-Selection and the Earnings of Immigrants," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Foundational Essays in Immigration Economics, chapter 4, pages 69-91, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    24. Catia Batista & Pedro C. Vicente, 2011. "Do Migrants Improve Governance at Home? Evidence from a Voting Experiment," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 25(1), pages 77-104, May.
    25. Benonnier, Theo & Millock, Katrin & Taraz, Vis P., 2019. "Long term migration trends and climate change: The role of irrigation," 2019 Annual Meeting, July 21-23, Atlanta, Georgia 291028, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    26. Ilan Noy, 2017. "To Leave or Not to Leave? Climate Change, Exit, and Voice on a Pacific Island," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 63(4), pages 403-420.
    27. Michel Beine & Christopher Parsons, 2015. "Climatic Factors as Determinants of International Migration," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 117(2), pages 723-767, April.
    28. Sam Fankhauser, 2017. "Adaptation to Climate Change," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 9(1), pages 209-230, October.
    29. Katrin Millock, 2015. "Migration and Environment," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 35-60, October.
    30. Katrin Millock, 2015. "Migration and Environment," Post-Print halshs-01302611, HAL.
    31. Kazianga, Harounan & Udry, Christopher, 2006. "Consumption smoothing? Livestock, insurance and drought in rural Burkina Faso," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 413-446, April.
    32. Toman Barsbai & Hillel Rapoport & Andreas Steinmayr & Christoph Trebesch, 2017. "The Effect of Labor Migration on the Diffusion of Democracy: Evidence from a Former Soviet Republic," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 36-69, July.
    33. Ingrid Dallmann & Katrin Millock, 2017. "Climate Variability and Inter-State Migration in India," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) halshs-01630310, HAL.
    34. Katrin Millock, 2015. "Migration and Environment," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) halshs-01302611, HAL.
    35. V. Mueller & C. Gray & K. Kosec, 2014. "Heat stress increases long-term human migration in rural Pakistan," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 4(3), pages 182-185, March.
    36. Clark Gray & Erika Wise, 2016. "Country-specific effects of climate variability on human migration," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 135(3), pages 555-568, April.
    37. repec:hal:pseose:hal-01304133 is not listed on IDEAS
    38. repec:hal:pseose:halshs-01302611 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Pestel, Nico & Oswald, Andrew J., 2021. "Why Do Relatively Few Economists Work on Climate Change? A Survey," IZA Discussion Papers 14885, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Shakya, Shishir & Basnet, Subuna & Paudel, Jayash, 2022. "Natural disasters and labor migration: Evidence from Nepal’s earthquake," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    3. Berlemann, Michael & Haustein, Erik & Steinhardt, Max F., 2021. "From Stocks to Flows – Evidence for the Climate-Migration-Nexus," IZA Discussion Papers 14450, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Spitzer, Yannay & Tortorici, Gaspare & Zimran, Ariell, 2020. "International Migration Responses to Natural Disasters: Evidence from Modern Europe’s Deadliest Earthquake," CEPR Discussion Papers 15008, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Yannay Spitzer & Gaspare Tortorici & Ariell Zimran, 2020. "International Migration Responses to Modern Europe’s Most Destructive Earthquake: Messina and Reggio Calabria, 1908," NBER Working Papers 27506, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Michel Beine & Ilan Noy & Christopher Parsons, 2021. "Climate change, migration and voice," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 167(1), pages 1-27, July.
    2. Beine, Michel & Jeusette, Lionel, 2021. "A meta-analysis of the literature on climate change and migration," Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 87(3), pages 293-344, September.
    3. Maya Moore & Dennis Wesselbaum, 2023. "Climatic factors as drivers of migration: a review," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(4), pages 2955-2975, April.
    4. Théo Benonnier & Katrin Millock & Vis Taraz, 2019. "Climate change, migration, and irrigation," PSE Working Papers halshs-02107098, HAL.
    5. Sedova, Barbora & Kalkuhl, Matthias, 2020. "Who are the climate migrants and where do they go? Evidence from rural India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    6. Els BEKEART & Ilse RUYSSEN & Sara SALOMONE, 2021. "Domestic and International Migration Intentions in Response to Environmental Stress: A Global Cross-country Analysis," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 87(3), pages 383-436, September.
    7. Barbora Šedová & Lucia Čizmaziová & Athene Cook, 2021. "A meta-analysis of climate migration literature," CEPA Discussion Papers 29, Center for Economic Policy Analysis.
    8. Michał Burzyński & Christoph Deuster & Frédéric Docquier & Jaime de Melo, 2022. "Climate Change, Inequality, and Human Migration," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 20(3), pages 1145-1197.
    9. Michał Burzyński & Christoph Deuster & Frédéric Docquier & Jaime de Melo, 2022. "Climate Change, Inequality, and Human Migration," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 20(3), pages 1145-1197.
    10. Florent MCISAAC & Daniel BASTIDAS, 2019. "Reaching Brazil's Nationally Determined Contributions: An Assessment of the Key Transitions in Final Demand and Employment," Working Paper 911644f9-625d-496f-8ecf-8, Agence française de développement.
    11. Simone Bertoli & Frédéric Docquier & Hillel Rapoport & Ilse Ruyssen, 2022. "Weather shocks and migration intentions in Western Africa: insights from a multilevel analysis [Do climate variations explain bilateral migration? A gravity model analysis]," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 22(2), pages 289-323.
    12. Michael Berlemann & Thi Xuyen Tran, 2020. "Climate-Related Hazards and Internal Migration Empirical Evidence for Rural Vietnam," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 385-409, July.
    13. Théo Benonnier & Katrin Millock & Vis Taraz, 2022. "Long-term migration trends and rising temperatures: the role of irrigation," Journal of Environmental Economics and Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 307-330, July.
    14. Bhaskar Jyoti Neog, 2022. "Temperature shocks and rural labour markets: evidence from India," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 171(1), pages 1-20, March.
    15. Zaveri, Esha D. & Wrenn, Douglas H. & Fisher-Vanden, Karen, 2020. "The impact of water access on short-term migration in rural India," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 64(2), April.
    16. Julian Roeckert & Kati Kraehnert, 2022. "Extreme Weather Events and Internal Migration: Evidence from Mongolia," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 95-128, March.
    17. Cattaneo, Cristina & Foreman, Timothy, 2023. "Climate change, international migration, and interstate conflicts," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).
    18. Luong, Tuan Anh & Nguyen, Manh-Hung & Truong, N.T. Khuong & Le, Kien, 2023. "Rainfall variability and internal migration: The importance of agriculture linkage and gender inequality," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 326-336.
    19. Taraz, Vis, 2018. "Can farmers adapt to higher temperatures? Evidence from India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 205-219.
    20. Luis G. BECERRA - VALBUENA & Katrin MILLOCK, 2021. "Gendered migration responses to drought in Malawi," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 87(3), pages 437-477, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Emigration; Climate Change; Voicing; Trapped Populations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State
    • O57 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:luc:wpaper:19-14. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Marina Legrand (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/crcrplu.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.