Nothing Special   »   [go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/jku/econwp/2012_14.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Debt, Boom, Bust: A Theory of Minsky-Veblen Cycles

Author

Listed:
  • Jakob Kapeller

    (University of Linz, Linz, Austria)

  • Bernhard Schütz

    (Department of Economics, University of Linz, Linz, Austria)

Abstract
This paper reflects on the development leading to the recent crisis and interprets this development as a series of events within a Minsky-Veblen Cycle. To illustrate this claim we introduce conspicuous consumption concerns, as described by Veblen, into a stock flow consistent Post Keynesian model and demonstrate that, under these conditions, a decrease in income equality leads to a corresponding increase in debt-financed consumption demand. Here Minskyian dynamics come into play: increased credit demand leads to a corresponding rise in credit supply, which, eventually, gives rise to a debt-financed consumption boom. As the solvency of households decreases and interest rates move up, banks reduce lending, triggering household bankruptcies and, finally, a recession. What follows is a stable period of consolidation, where past debts are repaid, financial stability is regained and conspicuous consumption motives may gradually take over again. We illustrate this approach to the current crisis and its explanatory validity by extending our stock-flow consistent model into a dynamic simulation.

Suggested Citation

  • Jakob Kapeller & Bernhard Schütz, 2012. "Debt, Boom, Bust: A Theory of Minsky-Veblen Cycles," Economics working papers 2012-14, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    • Handle: RePEc:jku:econwp:2012_14
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.econ.jku.at/papers/2012/wp1214.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Neumark, David & Postlewaite, Andrew, 1998. "Relative income concerns and the rise in married women's employment," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 157-183, October.
    2. Lance Taylor & Stephen A. O'Connell, 1985. "A Minsky Crisis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 100(Supplemen), pages 871-885.
    3. Joseph STIGLITZ, 2013. "The global crisis, social protection and jobs," International Labour Review, International Labour Organization, vol. 152, pages 93-106, January.
    4. Eric Tymoigne, 2006. "The Minskyan System, Part III: System Dynamics Modeling of a Stock Flow-Consistent Minskyan Model," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_455, Levy Economics Institute.
    5. Till van Treeck, 2012. "Did inequality cause the U.S. financial crisis?," IMK Working Paper 91-2012, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    6. Samuel Bowles & Yongjin Park, 2005. "Emulation, Inequality, and Work Hours: Was Thorsten Veblen Right?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(507), pages 397-412, November.
    7. Dirk Krueger & Fabrizio Perri, 2006. "Does Income Inequality Lead to Consumption Inequality? Evidence and Theory -super-1," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 73(1), pages 163-193.
    8. Amitava Krishna Dutt, 2008. "The Dependence Effect, Consumption and Happiness: Galbraith Revisited," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(4), pages 527-550.
    9. Daniel Kahneman & Jack L. Knetsch & Richard H. Thaler, 1991. "Anomalies: The Endowment Effect, Loss Aversion, and Status Quo Bias," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 5(1), pages 193-206, Winter.
    10. Marc Lavoie & Wynne Godley, 2000. "Kaleckian Models of Growth in a Stock-Flow Monetary Framework: A Neo-Kaldorian Model," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_302, Levy Economics Institute.
    11. Eckhard Hein, 2012. "Finance-dominated capitalism, re-distribution, household debt and financial fragility in a Kaleckian distribution and growth model," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 65(260), pages 11-51.
    12. Aldo Barba & Massimo Pivetti, 2009. "Rising household debt: Its causes and macroeconomic implications--a long-period analysis," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 33(1), pages 113-137, January.
    13. Thomas I. Palley, 1994. "Debt, Aggregate Demand, and The Business Cycle: an Analysis in the Spirit of Kaldor and Minsky," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(3), pages 371-390, March.
    14. Marc Lavoie & Wynne Godley, 2002. "Kaleckian Models of Growth in a Coherent Stock-Flow Monetary Framework: A Kaldorian View," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 24(2), pages 277-311, December.
    15. Mr. Francesco Grigoli & Adrian Robles, 2017. "Inequality Overhang," IMF Working Papers 2017/076, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Markus Christen & Ruskin Morgan, 2005. "Keeping Up With the Joneses: Analyzing the Effect of Income Inequality on Consumer Borrowing," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 145-173, June.
    17. Amitava Krishna Dutt, 2006. "Maturity, Stagnation And Consumer Debt: A Steindlian Approach," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(3), pages 339-364, July.
    18. J. M. Keynes, 1997. "The General Theory of Employment," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, vol. 5.
    19. Jakob Kapeller & Bernhard Schütz, 2015. "Conspicuous Consumption, Inequality and Debt: The Nature of Consumption-driven Profit-led Regimes," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 66(1), pages 51-70, February.
    20. Raghuram G. Rajan, 2010. "Fault Lines: How Hidden Fractures Still Threaten the World Economy," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 9111.
    21. Heather Boushey & Christian E. Weller, 2006. "Inequality and Household Economic Hardship in the United States of America," Working Papers 18, United Nations, Department of Economics and Social Affairs.
    22. Mr. Romain Ranciere & Mr. Nathaniel A. Throckmorton & Mr. Michael Kumhof & Ms. Claire Lebarz & Mr. Alexander W. Richter, 2012. "Income Inequality and Current Account Imbalances," IMF Working Papers 2012/008, International Monetary Fund.
    23. Leonhard Dobusch & Jakob Kapeller, 2012. "Heterodox United vs. Mainstream City? Sketching a Framework for Interested Pluralism in Economics," Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(4), pages 1035-1058.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jakob Kapeller & Bernhard Schütz, 2015. "Conspicuous Consumption, Inequality and Debt: The Nature of Consumption-driven Profit-led Regimes," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 66(1), pages 51-70, February.
    2. Till van Treeck, 2012. "Did inequality cause the U.S. financial crisis?," IMK Working Paper 91-2012, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    3. van Treeck, Till. & Sturn, Simon., 2012. "Income inequality as a cause of the Great Recession? : A survey of current debates," ILO Working Papers 994709343402676, International Labour Organization.
    4. Till Treeck, 2014. "Did Inequality Cause The U.S. Financial Crisis?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(3), pages 421-448, July.
    5. Thomas Goda, 2013. "The role of income inequality in crisis theories and in the subprime crisis," Working Papers PKWP1305, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    6. Thomas Goda, 2017. "A comparative review of the role of income inequality in economic crisis theories and its contribution to the financial crisis of 2007-2009," Revista Finanzas y Politica Economica, Universidad Católica de Colombia, vol. 9(1), pages 151-174, February.
    7. Christian A Belabed & Thomas Theobald & Till van Treeck, 2018. "Income distribution and current account imbalances [Notes on capacity utilisation, distribution and accumulation]," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 42(1), pages 47-94.
    8. Jan Behringer & Till van Treeck, 2013. "Income distribution and current account: A sectoral perspective," IMK Working Paper 125-2013, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    9. Daniel Detzer, 2016. "Financialisation, Debt and Inequality – scenarios based on a stock flow consistent model," Working papers wpaper151, Financialisation, Economy, Society & Sustainable Development (FESSUD) Project.
    10. Yun Kim & Soon Ryoo, 2013. "Income Distribution, Consumer Debt, and Keeping Up with the Joneses: a Kaldor-Minsky-Veblen Model," Working Papers 1302, Trinity College, Department of Economics.
    11. Franz J. Prante, 2018. "Macroeconomic Effects of Personal and Functional Income Inequality: Theory and Empirical Evidence for the US and Germany," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 65(3), pages 289-318.
    12. Pasquale Tridico & Riccardo Pariboni, 2018. "Inequality, financialization, and economic decline," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(2), pages 236-259, April.
    13. Eckhard Hein & Nina Dodig, 2014. "Financialisation, distribution, growth and crises – long-run tendencies," Working papers wpaper23, Financialisation, Economy, Society & Sustainable Development (FESSUD) Project.
    14. Jakob Kapeller & Bernhard Schütz, 2013. "Exploring Pluralist Economics: The Case of the Minsky-Veblen Cycles," Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(2), pages 515-524.
    15. Daniel Detzer, 2017. "Financialisation, Debt and Inequality: Export-led Mercantilist and Debt-led Private Demand Boom Economies in a Stock-flow consistent Model," Working Papers 2016-03, Universita' di Cassino, Dipartimento di Economia e Giurisprudenza.
    16. Engelbert Stockhammer & Rafael Wildauer, 2016. "Debt-driven growth? Wealth, distribution and demand in OECD countries," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 40(6), pages 1609-1634.
    17. Zakaria Babutsidze & Maurizio Iacopetta, 2016. "Innovation, growth and financial markets," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 1-24, March.
    18. Yun K. Kim, 2017. "Rise of Household Debt and the Great Recession in the US: Comparative Perspectives," Working Papers 2017_03, University of Massachusetts Boston, Economics Department.
    19. Joana David Avritzer & Lídia Brochier, 2022. "Household credit-financed consumption and the debt service ratio: tackling endogenous autonomous demand in the Supermultiplier model," Working Papers PKWP2219, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    20. Soon Ryoo & Yun K. Kim, 2014. "Income Distribution, Consumer Debt and Keeping up with the Joneses," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(4), pages 585-618, November.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • B52 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Current Heterodox Approaches - - - Historical; Institutional; Evolutionary; Modern Monetary Theory;
    • D11 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Theory
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jku:econwp:2012_14. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: René Böheim (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vlinzat.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.