Nothing Special   »   [go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ise/remwps/wp01122019.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Sovereign debt crisis in Portugal and in Spain

Author

Listed:
  • António Afonso
  • Nuno Verdial
Abstract
The 2007-2008 financial crisis and the European sovereign debt crisis effects rippled through the financial system, banks and sovereign states. We analyze these events, focusing on the Portuguese and Spanish case after providing an insight into the Eurozone. We assessed the pricing of sovereign risk by performing an OLS/2SLS fixed effects panel analysis on a pool of Eurozone countries and a SUR regression with Portugal and Spain covering the period 1999:11 until 2019:6. Our results show that the pricing of sovereign risk changed with the crisis and the “whatever it takes” speech of Mario Draghi. Specifically, market pricing of the Eurozone credit risk, liquidity risk and the risk appetite increased after the crisis and it relaxed afterwards. We did not find evidence of specific pricing regime changes after the speech in the Portuguese and Spanish case.

Suggested Citation

  • António Afonso & Nuno Verdial, 2019. "Sovereign debt crisis in Portugal and in Spain," Working Papers REM 2019/0112, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    • Handle: RePEc:ise:remwps:wp01122019
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://rem.rc.iseg.ulisboa.pt/wps/pdf/REM_WP_0112_2019.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Afonso, António & Arghyrou, Michael G. & Gadea, María Dolores & Kontonikas, Alexandros, 2018. "“Whatever it takes” to resolve the European sovereign debt crisis? Bond pricing regime switches and monetary policy effects," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 1-30.
    2. Fabio Panetta & Thomas Faeh & Giuseppe Grande & Corrinne Ho & Michael R King & Aviram Levy & Federico M Signoretti & Marco Taboga & Andrea Zaghini, 2009. "An assessment of financial sector rescue programmes," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 48.
    3. Afonso, António & Nunes, Ana Sofia, 2015. "Economic forecasts and sovereign yields," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 319-326.
    4. Bernoth, Kerstin & Erdogan, Burcu, 2012. "Sovereign bond yield spreads: A time-varying coefficient approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 639-656.
    5. Gerlach, Stefan & Schulz, Alexander & Wolff, Guntram B., 2010. "Banking and sovereign risk in the euro area," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2010,09, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    6. Arghyrou, Michael G. & Kontonikas, Alexandros, 2012. "The EMU sovereign-debt crisis: Fundamentals, expectations and contagion," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 658-677.
    7. Francisco Martí & Javier J. Pérez, 2015. "Spanish Public Finances through the Financial Crisis," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 36, pages 527-554, December.
    8. António Afonso & Jorge Silva, 2018. "Debt crisis and 10-year sovereign yields in Ireland and in Portugal," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(4), pages 217-222, February.
    9. Attinasi, Maria Grazia & Checherita-Westphal, Cristina & Nickel, Christiane, 2009. "What explains the surge in euro area sovereign spreads during the financial crisis of 2007-09?," Working Paper Series 1131, European Central Bank.
    10. Beirne, John & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2013. "The pricing of sovereign risk and contagion during the European sovereign debt crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 60-82.
    11. Inês Pereira, 2016. "Is the ECB unconventional monetary policy effective?," GEE Papers 0061, Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos, Ministério da Economia, revised Sep 2016.
    12. Aizenman, Joshua & Hutchison, Michael & Jinjarak, Yothin, 2013. "What is the risk of European sovereign debt defaults? Fiscal space, CDS spreads and market pricing of risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 37-59.
    13. António Afonso & Joana Sousa‐Leite, 2020. "The transmission of unconventional monetary policy to bank credit supply: Evidence from the TLTRO," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 88(S1), pages 151-171, September.
    14. Olivier Blanchard & Pedro Portugal, 2017. "Boom, slump, sudden stops, recovery, and policy options. Portugal and the Euro," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 16(3), pages 149-168, December.
    15. Jens Hilscher & Yves Nosbusch, 2010. "Determinants of Sovereign Risk: Macroeconomic Fundamentals and the Pricing of Sovereign Debt," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 14(2), pages 235-262.
    16. Falagiarda, Matteo & Reitz, Stefan, 2015. "Announcements of ECB unconventional programs: Implications for the sovereign spreads of stressed euro area countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 276-295.
    17. Gianluigi Ferrucci, 2003. "Empirical determinants of emerging market economies' sovereign bond spreads," Bank of England working papers 205, Bank of England.
    18. Juan Jimeno & Tano Santos, 2014. "The crisis of the Spanish economy," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 5(2), pages 125-141, August.
    19. Ricardo Reis, 2013. "The Portugese Slump and Crash and the Euro Crisis," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 44(1 (Spring), pages 143-210.
    20. Antonio Afonso & Mina Kazemi, 2018. "Euro Area Sovereign Yields and the Power of Unconventional Monetary Policy," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 68(2), pages 100-119, April.
    21. Philip R. Lane, 2012. "The European Sovereign Debt Crisis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(3), pages 49-68, Summer.
    22. Jäger, Jannik & Grigoriadis, Theocharis, 2017. "The effectiveness of the ECB’s unconventional monetary policy: Comparative evidence from crisis and non-crisis Euro-area countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 21-43.
    23. António Afonso & Pedro Gomes & Philipp Rother, 2006. "What “Hides” Behind Sovereign Debt Ratings?," Working Papers Department of Economics 2006/35, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    24. David Hauner & Jiri Jonas & Manmohan Singh Kumar, 2010. "Sovereign Risk: Are the EU's New Member States Different?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 72(4), pages 411-427, August.
    25. Olivier Blanchard, 2007. "Adjustment within the euro. The difficult case of Portugal," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 6(1), pages 1-21, April.
    26. Afonso, António & Tovar Jalles, João, 2019. "Quantitative easing and sovereign yield spreads: Euro-area time-varying evidence," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 208-224.
    27. Edwards, Sebastian, 1984. "LDC Foreign Borrowing and Default Risk: An Empirical Investigation, 1976-80," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(4), pages 726-734, September.
    28. Richard Cantor & Frank Packer, 1996. "Determinants and impact of sovereign credit ratings," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 2(Oct), pages 37-53.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sérgio C. Lagoa & Emanuel R. Leão & Diptes P. Bhimjee, 2022. "Dynamics of the public-debt-to-gdp ratio: can it explain the risk premium of treasury bonds?," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1089-1122, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Afonso, António & Jalles, João Tovar & Kazemi, Mina, 2020. "The effects of macroeconomic, fiscal and monetary policy announcements on sovereign bond spreads," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    2. Kinateder, Harald & Wagner, Niklas, 2017. "Quantitative easing and the pricing of EMU sovereign debt," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 1-12.
    3. Beirne, John & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2013. "The pricing of sovereign risk and contagion during the European sovereign debt crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 60-82.
    4. Gunther Capelle-Blancard & Patricia Crifo & Marc-Arthur Diaye & Rim Oueghlissi & Bert Scholtens, 2016. "Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) performance and sovereign bond spreads: an empirical analysis of OECD countries," Working Papers hal-01401718, HAL.
    5. Capelle-Blancard, Gunther & Crifo, Patricia & Diaye, Marc-Arthur & Oueghlissi, Rim & Scholtens, Bert, 2019. "Sovereign bond yield spreads and sustainability: An empirical analysis of OECD countries," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 156-169.
    6. Debarsy, Nicolas & Dossougoin, Cyrille & Ertur, Cem & Gnabo, Jean-Yves, 2018. "Measuring sovereign risk spillovers and assessing the role of transmission channels: A spatial econometrics approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 21-45.
    7. Meier, Samira & Rodriguez Gonzalez, Miguel & Kunze, Frederik, 2021. "The global financial crisis, the EMU sovereign debt crisis and international financial regulation: lessons from a systematic literature review," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    8. repec:dau:papers:123456789/13143 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/6b3bdv9unt9mspi3ri2ff917d6 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Anne-Laure Delatte & Julien Fouquau & Richard Portes, 2014. "Nonlinearities in Sovereign Risk Pricing: The Role of CDS Index Contracts," NBER Working Papers 19985, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Britta Niehof, 2014. "Spillover Effects in Government Bond Spreads: Evidence from a GVAR Model," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201458, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    12. Leschinski, Christian & Bertram, Philip, 2017. "Time varying contagion in EMU government bond spreads," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 72-91.
    13. Samir Kadiric, 2020. "The determinants of sovereign risk premiums in the UK and the European government bond market: The impact of Brexit," EIIW Discussion paper disbei271, Universitätsbibliothek Wuppertal, University Library.
    14. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/6b3bdv9unt9mspi3ri2ff917d6 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. António Afonso & João Tovar Jalles & Mina Kazemi, 2019. "The Effects of Macroeconomic, Fiscal and Monetary Policy Announcements on Sovereign Bond Spreads: An Event Study from the EMU," Working Papers REM 2019/67, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    16. Anne-Laure Delatte & Julien Fouquau & Richard Portes, 2014. "Nonlinearities in Sovereign Risk Pricing: The Role of CDS Index Contracts," NBER Working Papers 19985, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Ordoñez-Callamand, Daniel & Gomez-Gonzalez, Jose Eduardo & Melo-Velandia, Luis Fernando, 2017. "Sovereign default risk in OECD countries: Do global factors matter?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 629-639.
    18. Samir Kadiric, 2022. "The determinants of sovereign risk premiums in the UK and the European government bond market: the impact of Brexit," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 267-298, May.
    19. Afonso, António & Arghyrou, Michael G. & Gadea, María Dolores & Kontonikas, Alexandros, 2018. "“Whatever it takes” to resolve the European sovereign debt crisis? Bond pricing regime switches and monetary policy effects," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 1-30.
    20. Chiarella, Carl & ter Ellen, Saskia & He, Xue-Zhong & Wu, Eliza, 2015. "Fear or fundamentals? Heterogeneous beliefs in the European sovereign CDS market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 19-34.
    21. Patricia Crifo & Marc-Arthur Diaye & Rim Oueghlissi, 2014. "Measuring the effect of government ESG performance on sovereign borrowing cost," CIRANO Working Papers 2014s-37, CIRANO.
    22. Ortmans, Aymeric & Tripier, Fabien, 2021. "COVID-induced sovereign risk in the euro area: When did the ECB stop the spread?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    23. Crifo, Patricia & Diaye, Marc-Arthur & Oueghlissi, Rim, 2017. "The effect of countries’ ESG ratings on their sovereign borrowing costs," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 13-20.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sovereign debt; Yield spreads; Crises; Unconventional Monetary Policy; Portugal; Spain;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ise:remwps:wp01122019. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sandra Araújo (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://rem.rc.iseg.ulisboa.pt/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.