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“Forward Looking Banking Stress in EMU Countries”

Author

Listed:
  • Manish K. Singh

    (Faculty of Economics, University of Barcelona)

  • Marta Gómez-Puig

    (Faculty of Economics, University of Barcelona)

  • Simón Sosvilla-Rivero

    (Faculty of Economics, Complutense University of Madrid)

Abstract
Based on contingent claims analysis (CCA), this paper tries to estimate the systemic risk build-up in the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) countries using a market based measure \distance-to-default" (DtD). It analyzes the individual and aggregated series for a comprehensive set of banks in each eurozone country over the period 2004-Q4 to 2013-Q2. Given the structural di_erences in _nancial sector and banking regulations at national level, the indices provide a useful indicator for monitoring country speci_c banking vulnerability and stress. We _nd that average DtD indicators are intuitive, forward-looking and timely risk indicators. The underlying trend, uctuations and correlations among indices help us analyze the interdependence while cross-sectional di_erences in DtD prior to crisis suggest banking sector fragility in peripheral EMU countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Manish K. Singh & Marta Gómez-Puig & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2014. "“Forward Looking Banking Stress in EMU Countries”," IREA Working Papers 201421, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Oct 2014.
    • Handle: RePEc:ira:wpaper:201421
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    File URL: http://www.ub.edu/irea/working_papers/2014/201421.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Marta Gómez-Puig & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & Manish K. Singh, 2015. "“Sovereigns and banks in the euro area: a tale of two crises”," IREA Working Papers 201504, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Jan 2015.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    contingent claim analysis; distance-to-default; systemic risk JEL classification: G01; G21; G28;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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