Nothing Special   »   [go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/igi/igierp/514.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Bayesian Inference Does Not Lead You Astray... On Average

Author

Listed:
  • Alejandro Francetich
  • David Kreps
Abstract
A decision maker faces an unobserved state of nature. She updates her prior on the state based on the realizations of a signal. In this note, we show that the expected posterior on any given state, taking expectation under the conditional distribution of the signal on this same state, is never lower than the prior on said state. In other words, the expected posterior probability on the true state is never lower than the prior on this state, regardless of what the true state is.

Suggested Citation

  • Alejandro Francetich & David Kreps, 2014. "Bayesian Inference Does Not Lead You Astray... On Average," Working Papers 514, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    • Handle: RePEc:igi:igierp:514
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://repec.unibocconi.it/igier/igi/wp/2014/514.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Alejandro Francetich & David M. Kreps, 2014. "Choosing a Good Toolkit: An Essay in Behavioral Economics," Working Papers 524, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    2. Sergiu Hart & Yosef Rinott, 2022. "Posterior Probabilities: Nonmonotonicity, Asymptotic Rates, Log-Concavity, and Tur\'an's Inequality," Papers 2209.11728, arXiv.org.
    3. Hart, Sergiu & Rinott, Yosef, 2020. "Posterior probabilities: Dominance and optimism," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    4. Francetich, Alejandro & Kreps, David, 2020. "Choosing a good toolkit, II: Bayes-rule based heuristics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    5. Navin Kartik & Frances Xu Lee & Wing Suen, 2021. "Information Validates the Prior: A Theorem on Bayesian Updating and Applications," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 165-182, June.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:igi:igierp:514. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.igier.unibocconi.it/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.