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r minus g negative: Can We Sleep More Soundly?

Author

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  • Mr. Paolo Mauro
  • Jing Zhou
Abstract
Contrary to the traditional assumption of interest rates on government debt exceeding economic growth, negative interest-growth differentials have become prevalent since the global financial crisis. As these differentials are a key determinant of public debt dynamics, can we sleep more soundly, despite high government debts? Our paper undertakes an empirical analysis of interestgrowth differentials, using the largest historical database on average effective government borrowing costs for 55 countries over up to 200 years. We document that negative differentials have occurred more often than not, in both advanced and emerging economies, and have often persisted for long historical stretches. Moreover, differentials are no higher prior to sovereign defaults than in normal times. Marginal (rather than average) government borrowing costs often rise abruptly and sharply, but just prior to default. Based on these results, our answer is: not really.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Paolo Mauro & Jing Zhou, 2020. "r minus g negative: Can We Sleep More Soundly?," IMF Working Papers 2020/052, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2020/052
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Ibrahima Diarra & Michel Guillard & Hubert Kempf, 2022. "Sovereign Defaults and Debt Sustainability: The Debt Recovery Channel," CESifo Working Paper Series 9688, CESifo.
    3. Mitchener, Kris & Trebesch, Christoph, 2021. "Sovereign Debt in the 21st Century: Looking Backward, Looking Forward," CEPR Discussion Papers 15935, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Philippa Sigl-Gloeckner & Max Krahé & Pola Schneemelcher & Florian Schuster & Viola Hilbert & Henrika Meyer, 2021. "Eine neue deutsche Finanzpolitik," Working Papers 2, Forum New Economy.
    5. Ricardo Reis, 2021. "The constraint on public debt when r," Discussion Papers 2111, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    6. Czeczeli, Vivien, 2023. "Az államadósság fenntarthatósága alacsony kamatkörnyezetben [The sustainability of public debt in a low interest rate environment]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(12), pages 1361-1388.
    7. Barbara Annicchiarico & Fabio Di Dio & Stefano Patrì, 2023. "Optimal correction of the public debt and measures of fiscal soundness," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(1), pages 138-162, February.
    8. Andrea Bacchiocchi & Alessandro Bellocchi & Gian Italo Bischi & Giuseppe Travaglini, 2024. "A non-linear model of public debt with bonds and money finance," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 41(2), pages 457-498, July.
    9. Di Serio, Mario & Fragetta, Matteo & Melina, Giovanni, 2021. "The impact of r-g on Euro-Area government spending multipliers," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    10. Schilirò, Daniele, 2020. "COVID-19 crisis and the public debt issue:The case of Italy," MPRA Paper 103997, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Nov 2020.
    11. Sergeyev, Dmitriy & Mehrotra, Neil, 2020. "Debt Sustainability in a Low Interest Rate World," CEPR Discussion Papers 15282, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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