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What Fuels the Boom Drives the Bust: Regulation and the Mortgage Crisis

Author

Listed:
  • Jihad Dagher
  • Mr. Ning Fu
Abstract
We show that the lightly regulated non-bank mortgage originators contributed disproportionately to the recent boom-bust housing cycle. Using comprehensive data on mortgage originations, which we aggregate at the county level, we first establish that the market share of these independent non-bank lenders increased in virtually all US counties during the boom. We then exploit the heterogeneity in the market share of independent lenders across counties as of 2005 and show that higher market participation by these lenders is associated with increased foreclosure filing rates at the onset of the housing downturn. We carefully control for counties' economic, demographic, and housing market characteristics using both parametric and semi-nonparametric methods. We show that this relation between the pre-crisis market share of independents and the rise in foreclosure is more pronounced in less regulated states. The macroeconomic consequences of our findings are significant: we show that the market share of these lenders as of 2005 is also a strong predictor of the severity of the housing downturn and subsequent rise in unemployment. Overall our findings lend support to the view that more stringent regulation could have averted some of the volatility on the housing market during the recent boom-bust episode.

Suggested Citation

  • Jihad Dagher & Mr. Ning Fu, 2011. "What Fuels the Boom Drives the Bust: Regulation and the Mortgage Crisis," IMF Working Papers 2011/215, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2011/215
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Jihad Dagher & Mr. Kazim Kazimov, 2012. "Banks' Liability Structure and Mortgage Lending During the Financial Crisis," IMF Working Papers 2012/155, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Mr. Lev Ratnovski, 2013. "Competition Policy for Modern Banks," IMF Working Papers 2013/126, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Bulent Ozel & Reynold Christian Nathanael & Marco Raberto & Andrea Teglio & Silvano Cincotti, 2019. "Macroeconomic implications of mortgage loan requirements: an agent-based approach," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 14(1), pages 7-46, March.
    4. Demyanyk, Yuliya & Loutskina, Elena, 2016. "Mortgage companies and regulatory arbitrage," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(2), pages 328-351.
    5. Cerutti, Eugenio & Dagher, Jihad & Dell'Ariccia, Giovanni, 2017. "Housing finance and real-estate booms: A cross-country perspective," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 1-13.

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