Nothing Special   »   [go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/2002-043.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

International Capital Crunches: The Time-Varying Role of Informational Asymmetries

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Ashoka Mody
  • Mr. Mark P. Taylor
Abstract
We examine the determinants of capital flows to four developing countries during the 1990s using an explicitly disequilibrium econometric framework in which the supply and demand for capital are not necessarily equal and the actual amount of the flow is determined by the ‘short side’ of the market. We are thus able to detect instances of ‘international capital crunch’—where capital flows are curtailed because of supply-side rationing—and to relate these instances to movements in the underlying fundamentals. The analysis highlights the role of asymmetric information—as distinct from the traditional concern with default risk—in conditioning capital flows.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Ashoka Mody & Mr. Mark P. Taylor, 2002. "International Capital Crunches: The Time-Varying Role of Informational Asymmetries," IMF Working Papers 2002/043, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2002/043
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=15579
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Claessens, Stijn & Dooley, Michael P & Warner, Andrew, 1995. "Portfolio Capital Flows: Hot or Cold?," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 9(1), pages 153-174, January.
    2. Portes, Richard & Rey, Helene, 2005. "The determinants of cross-border equity flows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 269-296, March.
    3. Wei Ding & Domac, Ilker & Ferri, Giovanni, 1998. "Is there a credit crunch in East Asia?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1959, The World Bank.
    4. Chuhan, Punam & Claessens, Stijn & Mamingi, Nlandu, 1998. "Equity and bond flows to Latin America and Asia: the role of global and country factors," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 439-463, April.
    5. Razin, Assaf & Sadka, Efraim & Yuen, Chi-Wa, 1998. "A pecking order of capital inflows and international tax principles," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 45-68, February.
    6. Gordon, Roger H & Bovenberg, A Lans, 1996. "Why Is Capital So Immobile Internationally? Possible Explanations and Implications for Capital Income Taxation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(5), pages 1057-1075, December.
    7. Agenor, Pierre-Richard, 1998. "The Surge in Capital Flows: Analysis of 'Pull' and 'Push' Factors," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(1), pages 39-57, January.
    8. Maddala, G S & Nelson, Forrest D, 1974. "Maximum Likelihood Methods for Models of Markets in Disequilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 42(6), pages 1013-1030, November.
    9. Morris Goldstein & Graciela Kaminsky & Carmen Reinhart, 2017. "Methodology and Empirical Results," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: TRADE CURRENCIES AND FINANCE, chapter 11, pages 397-436, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    10. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1993. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(1), pages 108-151, March.
    11. Ashoka Mody & Krishna Srinivasan, 1998. "Japanese and United States Firms as Foreign Investors: Do they march to the same tune?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 31(4), pages 778-799, November.
    12. Reinhart, Carmen M. & Dunaway, Steven, "undated". "Dealing with Capital Inflows Are There Any Lessons?," WIDER Working Papers 295321, United Nations University, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    13. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393, Elsevier.
    14. Amemiya, Takeshi, 1974. "A Note on a Fair and Jaffee Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 42(4), pages 759-762, July.
    15. Montiel, Peter & Reinhart, Carmen M., 1999. "Do capital controls and macroeconomic policies influence the volume and composition of capital flows? Evidence from the 1990s," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 619-635, August.
    16. Gertler, Mark & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1990. "North-South lending and endogenous domestic capital market inefficiencies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 245-266, October.
    17. Reinhart, Carmen & Goldstein, Morris & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000. "Assessing financial vulnerability, an early warning system for emerging markets: Introduction," MPRA Paper 13629, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Jonathan Eaton & Mark Gersovitz, 1981. "Debt with Potential Repudiation: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 48(2), pages 289-309.
    19. Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "An Introduction," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 16(2), pages 149-150, August.
    20. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2001. "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, Volume 15, pages 339-412, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Swati Ghosh & Holger Wolf, 2000. "Is There a Curse of Location? Spatial Determinants of Capital Flows to Emerging Markets," NBER Chapters, in: Capital Flows and the Emerging Economies: Theory, Evidence, and Controversies, pages 137-156, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Mendoza, Enrique G., 2000. "Rational contagion and the globalization of securities markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 79-113, June.
    23. Eichengreen, Barry & Mody, Ashoka, 2000. "Lending booms, reserves and the sustainability of short-term debt: inferences from the pricing of syndicated bank loans," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 5-44, October.
    24. Taylor, Mark P & Sarno, Lucio, 1997. "Capital Flows to Developing Countries: Long- and Short-Term Determinants," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 11(3), pages 451-470, September.
    25. Gertler, Mark & Lown, Cara S, 1999. "The Information in the High-Yield Bond Spread for the Business Cycle: Evidence and Some Implications," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 15(3), pages 132-150, Autumn.
    26. Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P., 1999. "Moral hazard, asset price bubbles, capital flows, and the East Asian crisis:: the first tests," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 637-657, August.
    27. N. Gregory Mankiw, 1986. "The Allocation of Credit and Financial Collapse," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 101(3), pages 455-470.
    28. Korajczyk, Robert A. & Lucas, Deborah J. & McDonald, Robert L., 1992. "Equity Issues with Time-Varying Asymmetric Information," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(3), pages 397-417, September.
    29. Nicholas M. Kiefer, 1980. "A Note on Regime Classification in Disequilibrium Models," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 47(3), pages 637-639.
    30. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo, 2000. "When Capital Inflows Come to a Sudden Stop: Consequences and Policy Options," MPRA Paper 6982, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    31. Ashoka Mody & Mark Taylor & Jung Yeon Kim, 2001. "Forecasting capital flows to emerging markets: a Kalman filtering approach," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(6), pages 581-589.
    32. Stiglitz, Joseph E & Weiss, Andrew, 1981. "Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 393-410, June.
    33. Mody, Ashoka & Taylor, Mark P & Kim, Jung Yeon, 2001. "Modelling Fundamentals for Forecasting Capital Flows to Emerging Markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(3), pages 201-216, July.
    34. Kletzer, Kenneth M, 1984. "Asymmetries of Information and LDC Borrowing with Sovereign Risk," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 94(374), pages 287-307, June.
    35. Dornbusch, Rudiger & Park, Yung Chul & Claessens, Stijn, 2000. "Contagion: Understanding How It Spreads," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 15(2), pages 177-197, August.
    36. Sebastian Edwards, 2000. "Capital Flows and the Emerging Economies: Theory, Evidence, and Controversies," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number edwa00-1.
    37. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & McDermott, C John & Prasad, Eswar S, 2000. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Developing Countries: Some Stylized Facts," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 14(2), pages 251-285, May.
    38. Fair, Ray C & Jaffee, Dwight M, 1972. "Methods of Estimation for Markets in Disequilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 40(3), pages 497-514, May.
    39. Eaton, Jonathan & Gersovitz, Mark, 1980. "LDC participation in international financial markets : Debt and reserves," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 3-21, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Felices, Guillermo & Orskaug, Bjorn-Erik, 2008. "Estimating the determinants of capital flows to emerging market economies: a maximum likelihood disequilibrium approach," Bank of England working papers 354, Bank of England.
    2. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 25, pages 1439-1520, Elsevier.
    3. Daude, Christian & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2008. "The pecking order of cross-border investment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 94-119, January.
    4. Keskinsoy, Bilal, 2017. "Lucas Paradox in The Long Run," MPRA Paper 78126, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Mr. Philip R. Lane & Mr. Gian M Milesi-Ferretti, 2000. "External Capital Structure: Theory and Evidence," IMF Working Papers 2000/152, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Valpy FitzGerald & Derya Krolzig, 2003. "Modeling the Demand for Emerging Market Assets," OFRC Working Papers Series 2003fe10, Oxford Financial Research Centre.
    7. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets: A Survey," NBER Working Papers 16125, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Xingwang Qian & Andreas Steiner, 2014. "International Reserves and the Composition of Foreign Equity Investment," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(2), pages 379-409, May.
    9. Mr. Norbert Funke & Mr. Faisal Ahmed & Mr. Rabah Arezki, 2005. "The Composition of Capital Flows: Is South Africa Different?," IMF Working Papers 2005/040, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Ghosh, Atish R. & Ostry, Jonathan D. & Qureshi, Mahvash S., 2018. "Taming the Tide of Capital Flows: A Policy Guide," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262037165, April.
    11. Tidiane Kinda, 2007. "Increasing Private Capital Flows to Developing Countries : The Role of Physical and Financial Infrastructure," Post-Print hal-00171934, HAL.
    12. Lai, Jennifer /J.T., 2008. "Capital flow to China and the issue of hot money: an empirical investigation," MPRA Paper 32539, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Sep 2009.
    13. Valpy FitzGerald & Derya Krolzig, 2004. "Modelling the demand for emerging market assets," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 29, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    14. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose, 2013. "Financial Crises: Explanations, Types and Implications," CAMA Working Papers 2013-06, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    15. Hardik A. Marfatia, 2016. "The Role of Push and Pull Factors in Driving Global Capital Flows," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot GmbH, Berlin, vol. 62(2), pages 117-146.
    16. Taylor, Mark & Mody, Ashoka, 2003. "Common Vulnerabilities," CEPR Discussion Papers 3759, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    17. Yuko Hashimoto & Konstantin M. Wacker, 2012. "The Role of Risk and Information for International Capital Flows: New Evidence from the SDDS," Courant Research Centre: Poverty, Equity and Growth - Discussion Papers 124, Courant Research Centre PEG.
    18. Edison, Hali J. & Warnock, Francis E., 2008. "Cross-border listings, capital controls, and equity flows to emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 1013-1027, October.
    19. Tomislav Globan, 2015. "Financial integration, push factors and volatility of capital flows: evidence from EU new member states," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 42(3), pages 643-672, August.
    20. Tricia Mangal & Day-Yang Liu, 2020. "The impact of economic freedom on foreign portfolio investments: The case of the Caricom single market and economy," International Journal of Research in Business and Social Science (2147-4478), Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 9(2), pages 213-222, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    WP; capital flow; capital; supply and demand; capital crunch; Capital flows; disequilibrium; rationing; asymmetric information; demand and supply; short-term debt; supply and demand function; supply and demand demand curve; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Credit; Stock markets; Imports; East Asia; Global;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • O19 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - International Linkages to Development; Role of International Organizations

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2002/043. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.