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Monetary Policy and the Lost Decade: Lessons from Japan

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  • Mr. Daniel Leigh
Abstract
This paper investigates how monetary policy can help ward off a protracted deflationary slump when policy rates are near the zero bound by studying the experience of Japan during the "Lost Decade" which followed the asset-price bubble collapse in the early 1990s. Estimation results based on a structural model suggest that the Bank of Japan's interest-rate policy fits a conventional forward-looking reaction function with an inflation target of about 1 percent. The disappointing economic performance thus seems primarily due to a series of adverse economic shocks rather than an extraordinary policy error. In addition, counterfactual policy simulations based on the estimated structural model suggest that simply raising the inflation target would not have yielded a lasting improvement in performance. However, a price-targeting rule or a policy rule that combined a higher inflation target with a more aggressive response to output would have achieved superior stabilization results.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Daniel Leigh, 2009. "Monetary Policy and the Lost Decade: Lessons from Japan," IMF Working Papers 2009/232, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2009/232
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    3. Emile van Ommeren & Giulia Piccillo, 2021. "The Central Bank Governor and Interest Rate Setting by Committee," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 67(2), pages 155-185.
    4. Andrea Ferrero & Carlos Carvalho, 2013. "What Explains Japan's Persistent Deflation?," 2013 Meeting Papers 1163, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    5. Douglas Sutherland & Peter Hoeller, 2013. "Growth-promoting Policies and Macroeconomic Stability," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1091, OECD Publishing.
    6. Rosa Ferrentino & Luca Vota, 2022. "An Analysis of the Effectiveness of Japanese Monetary Policy Through a Statistical Mathematical Approach: a Simultaneous Equations Model (SEM)," Journal of Statistical and Econometric Methods, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 11(1), pages 1-2.
    7. Douglas Sutherland & Peter Hoeller, 2014. "Growth Policies and Macroeconomic Stability," OECD Economic Policy Papers 8, OECD Publishing.
    8. Mª Ángeles Caraballo & Tilemahos Efthimiadis, 2012. "Divergent Optimal Inflation Rates In Euro Area Countries Or "Does One Size Fit All?"," EcoMod2012 3923, EcoMod.
    9. Rod Tyers & Jenny Corbett, 2012. "Japan's economic slowdown and its global implications: a review of the economic modelling," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 26(2), pages 1-28, November.

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