Nothing Special   »   [go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/wpaper/hal-03277527.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

External Debts and Economic Growth when Debts Rating Matters

Author

Listed:
  • Ly Dai Hung

    (Vietnam Institute of Economics, Hanoi, Vietnam)

Abstract
The paper investigates the dependence pattern of economic growth on external debts supply by accounting for the safety of debts, measured by the sovereign debts rating. The method of cross-section regression is based on a sample of 145 advanced and developing economies with averaged data over 1990-2019 period. The pattern of economic growth follows an U-shaped curve, for which the growth rate is first decreasing then increasing on the external debts supply. An possible explaination can rely on the sovereign debts rating. For low supply of external debts, a higher supply of debts reduces the debts rating, which, in turn, lowers the economic growth rate. But for high enough supply of debts, more debts raise their rating, then, improving the growth rate. These results are robust on controlling for various determinants of economic growth and on the fixed-effect panel regression.

Suggested Citation

  • Ly Dai Hung, 2021. "External Debts and Economic Growth when Debts Rating Matters," Working Papers hal-03277527, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03277527
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-03277527
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hal.science/hal-03277527/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert C. Feenstra & Robert Inklaar & Marcel P. Timmer, 2015. "The Next Generation of the Penn World Table," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(10), pages 3150-3182, October.
    2. Ly Dai Hung, 2020. "Public Safe Assets Determination," Global Economic Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(4), pages 350-368, October.
    3. Ly Dai Hung, 2021. "Output-inflation Trade-off in the Presence of Foreign Capital: Evidence for Vietnam," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 10(2), pages 179-192, December.
    4. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1990. "Why Doesn't Capital Flow from Rich to Poor Countries?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 92-96, May.
    5. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    6. Laura Alfaro & Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Vadym Volosovych, 2014. "Sovereigns, Upstream Capital Flows, And Global Imbalances," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 12(5), pages 1240-1284, October.
    7. Galor, Oded, 1996. "Convergence? Inferences from Theoretical Models," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(437), pages 1056-1069, July.
    8. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2010. "Growth in a Time of Debt," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 573-578, May.
    9. Emmanuel Farhi & Matteo Maggiori, 2018. "A Model of the International Monetary System," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 133(1), pages 295-355.
    10. Bernanke, B.S., 2011. "International capital flows and the returns to safe assets in the United States 2003-2007," Financial Stability Review, Banque de France, issue 15, pages 13-26, February.
    11. Ricardo J. Caballero & Emmanuel Farhi & Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, 2016. "Safe Asset Scarcity and Aggregate Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(5), pages 513-518, May.
    12. Zhiguo He & Arvind Krishnamurthy & Konstantin Milbradt, 2019. "A Model of Safe Asset Determination," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(4), pages 1230-1262, April.
    13. T. W. Swan, 1956. "ECONOMIC GROWTH and CAPITAL ACCUMULATION," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 32(2), pages 334-361, November.
    14. Ricardo J. Caballero & Emmanuel Farhi & Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, 2008. "An Equilibrium Model of "Global Imbalances" and Low Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 358-393, March.
    15. Matthieu Bussière & Marcel Fratzscher, 2008. "Financial Openness and Growth: Short‐run Gain, Long‐run Pain?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(1), pages 69-95, February.
    16. Aghion, Philippe & Howitt, Peter, 1992. "A Model of Growth through Creative Destruction," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(2), pages 323-351, March.
    17. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Olivier Jeanne, 2013. "Capital Flows to Developing Countries: The Allocation Puzzle," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 80(4), pages 1484-1515.
    18. Robert J. Barro & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1990. "Economic Growth and Convergence across The United States," NBER Working Papers 3419, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Olivier Jeanne, 2013. "Capital Flows to Developing Countries: The Allocation Puzzle," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 80(4), pages 1484-1515.
    20. Ross Levine, 1997. "Financial Development and Economic Growth: Views and Agenda," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(2), pages 688-726, June.
    21. Kose, M. Ayhan & Kurlat, Sergio & Ohnsorge, Franziska & Sugawara, Naotaka, 2022. "A cross-country database of fiscal space," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    22. N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(2), pages 407-437.
    23. Eswar S. Prasad & Raghuram G. Rajan & Arvind Subramanian, 2007. "Foreign Capital and Economic Growth," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 38(1), pages 153-230.
    24. Pierre Yared, 2019. "Rising Government Debt: Causes and Solutions for a Decades-Old Trend," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 33(2), pages 115-140, Spring.
    25. Woodford, Michael, 1990. "Public Debt as Private Liquidity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 382-388, May.
    26. Toan Quoc Nguyen & Mr. Benedict J. Clements & Ms. Rina Bhattacharya, 2003. "External Debt, Public Investment, and Growth in Low-Income Countries," IMF Working Papers 2003/249, International Monetary Fund.
    27. Romer, Paul M, 1990. "Endogenous Technological Change," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 71-102, October.
    28. Arčabić Vladimir & Tica Josip & Lee Junsoo & Sonora Robert J., 2018. "Public debt and economic growth conundrum: nonlinearity and inter-temporal relationship," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 22(1), pages 1-20, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Saira Arsh & Javaria Sarwar & Sana Iftikhar, 2024. "An Empirical Analysis of Short Run and Long Run Association between Debt Servicing and External Debt in Pakistan," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 13(2), pages 109-116.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ly Dai Hung, 2022. "Safe Assets at Financial Globalization," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 13(03), pages 1-21, October.
    2. Ly Dai Hung, 2020. "International Public Capital Flows," Working Papers hal-03090656, HAL.
    3. Ly Dai Hung & Bui Thi Hai Anh & Vo Tri Thanh, 2022. "International Debts Flows," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 13(02), pages 1-22, June.
    4. Camarero, Mariam & Peiró-Palomino, Jesús & Tamarit, Cecilio, 2019. "Growth in a time of external imbalances," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 262-275.
    5. Ikonen, Pasi, 2017. "Financial depth, debt, and growth," Bank of Finland Scientific Monographs, Bank of Finland, volume 0, number e51, July.
    6. Mushtaq Ahmad Malik & Tariq Masood, 2022. "Dynamics of Output Growth and Convergence in the Middle East and North African Countries: Heterogeneous Panel ARDL Approach," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 13(2), pages 1444-1469, June.
    7. Hung Ly-Dai, 2019. "Non-linear pattern of international capital flows," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 155(3), pages 575-600, August.
    8. Evgenij Komarov, 2021. "Capital Flows and Endogenous Growth," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 21/365, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
    9. Oyinlola, Mutiu A. & Adedeji, Abdulfatai A. & Onitekun, Olumide, 2021. "Human capital, innovation, and inclusive growth in sub-Saharan African Region," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 609-625.
    10. Feld, Lars P. & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Schnabel, Isabel & Truger, Achim & Wieland, Volker, 2019. "Den Strukturwandel meistern. Jahresgutachten 2019/20 [Dealing with Structural Change. Annual Report 2019/20]," Annual Economic Reports / Jahresgutachten, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, volume 127, number 201920.
    11. Asamoah, Michael Effah & Alagidede, Imhotep Paul, 2020. "Exploring the causal relationships and allocation puzzle between portfolio investments and real sector growth in Sub-Saharan Africa," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    12. Nguyen Hong Son & Ly Dai Hung, 2019. "Foreign Direct Investment Absorption Capacity," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(01), pages 1-16, February.
    13. Katja Mann, 2021. "Does foreign capital go where the returns are? Financial integration and capital allocation efficiency1," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 3945-3971, July.
    14. Turnovsky, S., 2000. "Growth in an Open Economy: some Recent Developments," Papers 5, Warwick - Development Economics Research Centre.
    15. Ikonen, Pasi, 2010. "Effect of finance on growth through more efficient utilization of technological innovations," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 21/2010, Bank of Finland.
    16. Benigno, Gianluca & Fornaro, Luca & Wolf, Martin, 2022. "Reserve accumulation, growth and financial crises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    17. Durlauf, Steven N. & Quah, Danny T., 1999. "The new empirics of economic growth," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 4, pages 235-308, Elsevier.
    18. Kleinman, Benny & Liu, Ernest & Redding, Stephen & Yogo, Motohiro, 2023. "Neoclassical Growth in an Interdependent World," CEPR Discussion Papers 18654, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    19. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2010_021 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Borut Vojinović & Mariusz Próchniak, 2009. "Divergence Period in the European Convergence Process," Transition Studies Review, Springer;Central Eastern European University Network (CEEUN), vol. 15(4), pages 685-700, February.
    21. Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier & Rey, Hélène, 2014. "External Adjustment, Global Imbalances, Valuation Effects," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 585-645, Elsevier.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    External Debts; Economic Growth; Cross-Section Regression; Panel Regression;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03277527. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.