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Public Policies And The Art Of Catching Up

Author

Listed:
  • Giovanni Dosi

    (LEM - Laboratory of Economics and Management - SSSUP - Scuola Universitaria Superiore Sant'Anna = Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies [Pisa])

  • Andrea Roventini

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Emmanuele Russo

    (SSSUP - Scuola Universitaria Superiore Sant'Anna = Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies [Pisa])

Abstract
In this paper, we study the effects of industrial policies on international convergence using a multi-country agent-based model which builds upon Dosi et al. (2019b). The model features a group of microfounded economies, with evolving industries, populated by heterogeneous firms that compete in international markets. In each country, technological change is driven by firms' activities of search and innovation, while aggregate demand formation and distribution follows Keynesian dynamics. Interactions among countries take place via trade flows and international technological imitation. We employ the model to assess the different strategies that laggard countries can adopt to catch up with leaders: market-friendly policies;industrial policies targeting the development of firms' capabilities and R&D investments, as well as trade restrictions for infant industry protection; protectionist policies focusing on tariffs only. We find that markets cannot do the magic: in absence of government interventions, laggards will continue to fall behind. On the contrary, industrial policies can successfully drive international convergence among leaders and laggards, while protectionism alone is not necessary to support catching up and countries get stuck in a sort of middle-income trap. Finally, in a global trade war, where developed economies impose retaliatory tariffs, both laggards and leaders are worse off and world productivity growth slows down.

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  • Giovanni Dosi & Andrea Roventini & Emmanuele Russo, 2020. "Public Policies And The Art Of Catching Up," Working Papers hal-03242369, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03242369
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-03242369
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    4. Mario Martinoli & Alessio Moneta & Gianluca Pallante, 2022. "Calibration and Validation of Macroeconomic Simulation Models by Statistical Causal Search," LEM Papers Series 2022/33, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    5. Lena Gerdes & Bernhard Rengs & Manuel Scholz-Wäckerle, 2022. "Labor and environment in global value chains: an evolutionary policy study with a three-sector and two-region agent-based macroeconomic model," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 123-173, January.
    6. Marwil J. Dávila-Fernández & Serena Sordi, 2021. "Thirlwall's law: Binding-constraint or centre-of-gravity? A possible Kaleckian solution," Department of Economics University of Siena 853, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
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    8. Coronese, Matteo & Occelli, Martina & Lamperti, Francesco & Roventini, Andrea, 2023. "AgriLOVE: Agriculture, land-use and technical change in an evolutionary, agent-based model," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    9. Martin Sokol & Leonardo Pataccini, 2022. "Financialisation, regional economic development and the coronavirus crisis: a time for spatial monetary policy? [The financialization of home and the mortgage market crisis]," Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 15(1), pages 75-92.
    10. Emanuele Russo, 2021. "Harrodian instability in decentralized economies: an agent-based approach," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 38(2), pages 539-567, July.
    11. Emanuele Russo & Neil Foster-McGregor, 2022. "Characterizing growth instability: new evidence on unit roots and structural breaks in countries’ long run trajectories," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 32(2), pages 713-756, April.

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    Keywords

    Endogenous growth; Catching up; Technology-gaps; Industrial policies; Agent-based models;
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