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Do COVID-19 and crude oil prices drive the US economic policy uncertainty?

Author

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  • Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu

    (CRIEF [Poitiers] - Centre de recherche sur l'intégration économique et financière - UP - Université de Poitiers = University of Poitiers)

Abstract
This paper investigates the effect of the novel coronavirus and crude oil prices on the United States (US) economic policy uncertainty (EPU). Using daily data for the period January 21-March 13, 2020, our Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model shows that the new infection cases reported at global level, and the death ratio, have no significant effect on the US EPU, whereas the oil price negative dynamics leads to increased uncertainty. However, analyzing the situation outside China, we discover that both new case announcements and the COVID-19 associated death ratio have a positive influence on the US EPU.

Suggested Citation

  • Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu, 2020. "Do COVID-19 and crude oil prices drive the US economic policy uncertainty?," Working Papers hal-02509450, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-02509450
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-02509450
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Rashmi Chaudhary & Priti Bakhshi & Hemendra Gupta, 2020. "Volatility in International Stock Markets: An Empirical Study during COVID-19," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-17, September.
    2. Dr. Neha SETH & Deepti SINGH, 2023. "The Asian Stock Market’s reaction to Covid outbreak: an empirical Insights from ARDL approach," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(4(637), W), pages 243-256, Winter.
    3. Ugur Korkut Pata, 2020. "COVID-19 Induced Economic Uncertainty: A Comparison between the United Kingdom and the United States," Papers 2007.07839, arXiv.org.
    4. Pham, Son Duy & Nguyen, Thao Thac Thanh & Li, Xiao-Ming, 2024. "Stabilizing global foreign exchange markets in the time of COVID-19: The role of vaccinations," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    5. Cao, Yanyan & Xiang, Shihui, 2023. "Natural resources volatility and causal associations for BRICS countries: Evidence from Covid-19 data," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    6. Umer Shahzad & Muhammad Ramzan & Muhammad Ibrahim Shah & Buhari DoÄŸan & Ahdi Noomen Ajmi, 2022. "Analyzing the Nexus Between Geopolitical Risk, Policy Uncertainty, and Tourist Arrivals: Evidence From the United States," Evaluation Review, , vol. 46(3), pages 266-295, June.
    7. Garafas, Georgios & Dimitriou, Dimitrios, 2020. "The Ides Of March. Did Italian Covid-19 Crisis Fuel Us Economic Policy Uncertainty?," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 73(4), pages 511-524.
    8. Krzysztof Dmytrów & Joanna Landmesser & Beata Bieszk-Stolorz, 2021. "The Connections between COVID-19 and the Energy Commodities Prices: Evidence through the Dynamic Time Warping Method," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-23, July.
    9. Benzid, Lamia & Bakari, Sayef, 2021. "Modeling the Asymmetric Relationship between the Covid-19 and the U.S Dollar Exchange Rate: an Empirical Analysis via the NARDL Approach," MPRA Paper 105566, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Zhang, Feng & Huang, Yongming & Nan, Xiaoli, 2022. "The price volatility of natural resource commodity and global economic policy uncertainty: Evidence from US economy," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    11. Arif, Asma & Minh Vu, Hieu & Cong, Ma & Hon Wei, Leow & Islam, Md. Monirul & Niedbała, Gniewko, 2022. "Natural resources commodity prices volatility and economic performance: Evaluating the role of green finance," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    12. Md. Mazharul Islam & Majed Alharthi, 2022. "Impact of COVID-19 on the Quality of Life of Households in Saudi Arabia," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(3), pages 1-22, January.
    13. Ahmad, Shakil, 2021. "Does COVID-19 effects the United States crude oil imports price?," Economic Consultant, Roman I. Ostapenko, vol. 33(1), pages 57-67.
    14. Mensi, Walid & Rehman, Mobeen Ur & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2022. "Impacts of COVID-19 outbreak, macroeconomic and financial stress factors on price spillovers among green bond," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    15. Apostolakis, George N. & Floros, Christos & Gkillas, Konstantinos & Wohar, Mark, 2021. "Financial stress, economic policy uncertainty, and oil price uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    16. Saud Asaad Al‐Thaqeb & Barrak Ghanim Algharabali & Khaled Tareq Alabdulghafour, 2022. "The pandemic and economic policy uncertainty," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 2784-2794, July.
    17. Sun, Li & Wang, Yang, 2021. "Global economic performance and natural resources commodity prices volatility: Evidence from pre and post COVID-19 era," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    18. Khaled Abdalla Moh'd AL-Tamimi, 2021. "The Effects of COVID-19 Pandemic on the Economies of the Gulf Cooperation Council States due to Low Oil Prices," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 12(1), pages 279-285, January.

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    Keywords

    coronavirus; economic policy uncertainty; COVID-19; oil prices; bound tests;
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