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Building SSPs for Climate Policy Analysis : A Scenario Elicitation Methodology to Map the Space of Possible Future Challenges to Mitigation and Adaptation

Author

Listed:
  • Julie Rozenberg

    (CIRED - centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Céline Guivarch

    (CIRED - centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • R.J. Lempert

    (Rand Corporation)

  • Stéphane Hallegatte

    (CIRED - centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CNRM - Centre national de recherches météorologiques - INSU - CNRS - Institut national des sciences de l'Univers - OMP - Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - UT3 - Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier - UT - Université de Toulouse - INSU - CNRS - Institut national des sciences de l'Univers - CNES - Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Météo-France - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UT - Université de Toulouse - Météo-France)

Abstract
The scientific community is now developing a new set of scenarios, referred to as Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) to replace the SRES scenarios. To be used to investigate adaptation and mitigation, SSPs need to be contrasted along two axes: challenges to mitigation, and challenges to adaptation. This paper proposes a methodology to develop SSPs with a "backward" approach. The methodology is based on (i) an a priori identification of potential drivers of mitigation and adaptation challenges; (ii) a modelling exercise to transform these drivers into a large set of scenarios; (iii) an a posteriori selection of a few SSPs among these scenarios, such that they cover the uncertainty space in terms of challenges to adaptation and mitigation. This methodology is applied to the selection of a few SSPs, but it could also be applied to any specific decisions faced by decision-makers. From a large database of runs built by many models, the methodology would allow selecting the most relevant scenarios for a specific decision, i.e. scenarios that best predict when the analyzed choice performs poorly or well.

Suggested Citation

  • Julie Rozenberg & Céline Guivarch & R.J. Lempert & Stéphane Hallegatte, 2012. "Building SSPs for Climate Policy Analysis : A Scenario Elicitation Methodology to Map the Space of Possible Future Challenges to Mitigation and Adaptation," Working Papers hal-00793927, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00793927
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://enpc.hal.science/hal-00793927v1
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    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    shared socio-economic pathways; IPCC; robust-decision making; scenario methodology;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • O38 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Government Policy

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