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Le choix d'un régime de change dans les pays émergents et en développement peut-il être optimal en dehors des solutions bi-polaires ?

Author

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  • Jean-Pierre Allegret

    (GATE - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENS LSH - Ecole Normale Supérieure Lettres et Sciences Humaines - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Mohamed Ayadi

    (ISG - Institut supérieur de gestion - Université de Tunis)

  • Leila Haouaoui Khouni

    (ISG - Institut supérieur de gestion - Université de Tunis)

Abstract
This paper studies the choice of the exchange rate regime in emerging and developing countries. The literature on exchange rate regimes is often based either on theoretical models or on empirical analysis. Our paper presents a different perspective by developing a theoretical model which is tested empirically. We consider the main determinants of the exchange rate regime: the pass-through, the relative volatility of nominal and real shocks, the discretionary bias, the credit channel and the balance-sheet effect. The model is tested with a logit multinomial approach on a sample of 43 emerging and developing countries. We determine the probability of occurrence of a given exchange rate regime in taking into account the preceding determinants identified with the theoretical model. Overall, our results suggest that intermediate regimes are the regimes the best adapted to developing and emerging countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-Pierre Allegret & Mohamed Ayadi & Leila Haouaoui Khouni, 2008. "Le choix d'un régime de change dans les pays émergents et en développement peut-il être optimal en dehors des solutions bi-polaires ?," Post-Print halshs-00303718, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00303718
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00303718
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    1. Nassirou, Aïchat, 2017. "Chocs macroéconomiques et intégration d’une union économique et monétaire: cas du Nigéria [Macroeconomic shocks and integration of an economic and monetary union: case of Nigeria]," MPRA Paper 79167, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    exchange rate regimes; emerging countries; developing countries; logit multinomial model; régimes de change; pays émergents; pays en développement; modèle logit multinomial;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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