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Inflation target and (a)symmetries in the oil price pass-through to inflation

Author

Listed:
  • Antonia Lòpez-Villavicencio

    (UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2, GATE - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENS LSH - Ecole Normale Supérieure Lettres et Sciences Humaines - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Marc Pourroy

    (CRIEF [Poitiers] - Centre de recherche sur l'intégration économique et financière - UP - Université de Poitiers = University of Poitiers, Université de Poitiers - Faculté de Sciences économiques - UP - Université de Poitiers = University of Poitiers, Axe 2 (2017-2021) : "Vulnérabilités et risques" (MSHS Poitiers) - MSHS de Poitiers - Maison des sciences de l'homme et de la société de Poitiers - UP - Université de Poitiers = University of Poitiers - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract
In this paper we employ state-space models to estimate the pass-through of oil price changes to consumer prices for a large sample of countries from 1970 to 2017. By controlling for self-selection bias and endogeneity and allowing for different responses to positive and negative price changes, we asses the differences between explicit inflation targeting (IT) countries and a control group. Surprisingly perhaps, our results suggest that the pass-through is higher for IT countries. Our main contribution is to show that these is mainly due to IT countries having a significant higher pass-through than non-IT countries when the oil price decreases: a 10% drop in oil price leads about a 0.11% drop in inflation in ITers (of which 4pp are explained by the monetary regime). Importantly, we show that adopting IT reduces the asymmetry of the pass-through. We run several robustness checks and conclude that falling oil prices are more welcomed by the central banks with an IT framework, in particular during deflationary episodes or when inflation is above the target. JEL Classification: E31; E42; Q43.

Suggested Citation

  • Antonia Lòpez-Villavicencio & Marc Pourroy, 2019. "Inflation target and (a)symmetries in the oil price pass-through to inflation," Post-Print hal-02082415, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02082415
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2019.01.025
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-02082415
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    oil price; pass-through; inflation targeting; state-space model; propensity score matching;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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