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Impacts of climate change on agriculture and policy options for adaptation: The case of Vietnam

Author

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  • Yu, Bingxin
  • Zhu, Tingju
  • Breisinger, Clemens
  • Hai, Nguyen Manh
Abstract
Vietnam is likely to be among the countries hardest hit by climate change, mainly through rising sea levels and changes in rainfall and temperatures. Agriculture can be extensively affected by climate change, and designing effective adaptation strategies will be critical for maintaining food security, rural employment, and foreign exchange earnings. This paper examines these critical issues and thereby makes two contributions to the literature. First, we estimate the impacts of climate change on agricultural and water systems in Vietnam based on crop simulation, hydrological simulation, and river basin models. We then present a yield function approach that models technology advances and policy interventions to improve rice productivity and mitigate the impact of climate change, using a multilevel mixed effects model. This two-pronged approach allows rice yield changes to be linked with both biophysical and socioeconomic conditions. The results indicate that rice production is likely to be severely compromised by climate change. However, investment in rural infrastructure, such as irrigation and road, and human capital can mitigate the negative impacts of climate change. Due to substantial regional variations in impacts and responses, localized policy packages will be key for effective mitigation. Government policies targeting ethnic-minority and poor communities will be especially important components of climate change adaptation strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Yu, Bingxin & Zhu, Tingju & Breisinger, Clemens & Hai, Nguyen Manh, 2010. "Impacts of climate change on agriculture and policy options for adaptation: The case of Vietnam," IFPRI discussion papers 1015, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    • Handle: RePEc:fpr:ifprid:1015
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    1. repec:unu:wpaper:wp2012-79 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Dam, Thi Huyen Trang & Tur-Cardona, Juan & Speelman, Stijn & Amjath-Babu, T.S. & Sam, Anu Susan & Zander, Peter, 2021. "Incremental and transformative adaptation preferences of rice farmers against increasing soil salinity - Evidence from choice experiments in north central Vietnam," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    3. Nguyen, H.-R. & Ngo, Q.-T. & Nguyen, N.-D., 2018. "Effects of Natural Disaster on Rice Production at Farm Level: New Evidence from Vietnam," AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Economics and Management, vol. 10(1).
    4. Lanie A. Alejo & Arlen S. Alejandro, 2022. "Changes in Irrigation Planning and Development Parameters Due to Climate Change," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(5), pages 1711-1726, March.
    5. Altvater, Susanne & de Block, Debora & Bouwma, Irene & Dworak, Thomas & Frelih-Larsen, Ana & Görlach, Benjamin & Hermeling, Claudia & Klostermann, Judith & König, Martin & Leitner, Markus & Marinova, , 2012. "Adaptation measures in the EU: Policies, costs, and economic assessment. "Climate Proofing" of key EU policies," ZEW Expertises, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research, number 110558, June.
    6. Clemens Breisinger & Tingju Zhu & Perrihan Al Riffai & Gerald Nelson & Richard Robertson & Jose Funes & Dorte Verner, 2013. "Economic Impacts Of Climate Change In Syria," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 4(01), pages 1-30.
    7. Khalifa, Sherin & Petri, Svetlana & Henning, Christian H. C. A., 2020. "If climate change can trigger civil conflict, can good policy trigger peace? Empirical evidence from cross-country panel data," Working Papers of Agricultural Policy WP2020-01, University of Kiel, Department of Agricultural Economics, Chair of Agricultural Policy.
    8. Yoro Diallo & Sébastien Marchand & Etienne Espagne, 2019. "Impacts of extreme events on technical efficiency in Vietnamese agriculture," Working Papers halshs-02080285, HAL.
    9. Channing Arndt & Finn Tarp & James Thurlow, 2015. "The Economic Costs of Climate Change: A Multi-Sector Impact Assessment for Vietnam," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-15, April.
    10. Etienne ESPAGNE & Yoro DIALLO & Sébastien MARCHAND, 2019. "Impacts of Extreme Climate Events on Technical Efficiency in Vietnamese Agriculture," Working Paper c1221ee7-5311-4af0-b1b4-3, Agence française de développement.
    11. Yohannes Gebretsadik & Charles Fant & Kenneth Strzepek, 2012. "Impact of Climate Change on Irrigation, Crops and Hydropower in Vietnam," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2012-079, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    12. Wiebelt, Manfred & Breisinger, Clemens & Ecker, Olivier & Al-Riffai, Perrihan & Robertson, Richard & Thiele, Rainer, 2011. "Climate change and floods in Yemen: Impacts on food security and options for adaptation," IFPRI discussion papers 1139, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    13. François Fortier & Tran Thi Thu Trang, 2013. "Agricultural Modernization and Climate Change in Vietnam's Post-Socialist Transition," Development and Change, International Institute of Social Studies, vol. 44(1), pages 81-99, January.
    14. Breisinger, Clemens & Ecker, Olivier & Al-Riffai, Perrihan & Robertson, Richard & Thiele, Rainer & Wiebelt, Manfred, 2011. "Climate change, agricultural production and food security: Evidence from Yemen," Kiel Working Papers 1747, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    15. Hoang Ha Vo & Takeshi Mizunoya & Cong Dinh Nguyen, 2021. "Determinants of farmers’ adaptation decisions to climate change in the central coastal region of Vietnam," Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 5(2), pages 327-349, June.
    16. Ferrer, Alice Joan G. & Thanh, Le Ha & Kiet, Nguyen Tuan & Chuong, Pham Hong & Trang, Vu Thu & Hopanda, Jinky C. & Carmelita, Benedict Mark & Gummadi, Sridhar & Bernardo, Eisen Bernard, 2022. "The impact of an adjusted cropping calendar on the welfare of rice farming households in the Mekong River Delta, Vietnam," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 639-652.
    17. Thi Dieu Linh Nguyen & Brent Bleys, 2021. "Applying Analytic Hierarchy Process to Adaptation to Saltwater Intrusion in Vietnam," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-16, February.
    18. Breisinger, Clemens & Zhu, Tingju & Al Riffai, Perrihan & Nelson, Gerald & Robertson, Richard & Funes, Jose & Verner, Dorte, 2011. "Global and local economic impacts of climate change in Syria and options for adaptation:," IFPRI discussion papers 1091, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    19. Pham Khanh Nam, 2010. "Cooperative Behavior, Social Capital and Development: Evidence from the Mekong River Delta in Vietnam," EEPSEA Research Report rr2010125, Economy and Environment Program for Southeast Asia (EEPSEA), revised Dec 2010.
    20. Fant, Charles & Gebretsadik, Yohannes & Strzepek, Kenneth, 2012. "Impact of Climate Change on Irrigation, Crops and Hydropower in Vietnam," WIDER Working Paper Series 079, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    21. Hung Gia Hoang, 2020. "Vietnamese smallholders’ perspectives on causes, indicators and determinants of climate change: implication for adaptation strategies," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(3), pages 1127-1142, October.
    22. Trong Anh Trinh, 2018. "The Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture: Findings from Households in Vietnam," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 71(4), pages 897-921, December.
    23. Ngo, Quang Thanh, 2016. "Farmers’ adaptive measures to climate change induced natural shocks through past climate experiences in the Mekong River Delta, Vietnam," MPRA Paper 78055, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    Keywords

    Climate change; productivity; rice;
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