Nothing Special   »   [go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedrwp/95450.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Leveraging the Disagreement on Climate Change: Theory and Evidence

Author

Listed:
Abstract
We theoretically and empirically investigate how climate risks affect collateralized debt markets. First, we develop a debt model where agents have different beliefs over a long-run risk. In contrast with existing two-period competitive-equilibrium models, our infinite-horizon competitive-search model predicts more pessimistic agents are more likely to make leveraged investments on risky collateral assets. They also tend to use longer maturity debt contracts, which are more exposed to the long-run risk. Second, employing large data on real estate and mortgage transactions, combined with high resolution sea-level-rise maps, we find robust evidence for these findings. We also show how monetary and securitization policies affect mortgage climate risk exposure. Our results highlight the importance of heterogeneous beliefs in understanding the effects of climate change on the financial system.

Suggested Citation

  • Laura Bakkensen & Toan Phan & Russell Wong, 2023. "Leveraging the Disagreement on Climate Change: Theory and Evidence," Working Paper 23-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedrwp:95450
    DOI: 10.21144/wp23-01
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.richmondfed.org/-/media/RichmondFedOrg/publications/research/working_papers/2023/wp23-01.pdf
    File Function: working paper
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.21144/wp23-01?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Barlevy, Gadi, 2014. "A leverage-based model of speculative bubbles," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 459-505.
    2. Klaus Desmet & Robert E. Kopp & Scott A. Kulp & Dávid Krisztián Nagy & Michael Oppenheimer & Esteban Rossi-Hansberg & Benjamin H. Strauss, 2021. "Evaluating the Economic Cost of Coastal Flooding," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 444-486, April.
    3. Bernstein, Asaf & Billings, Stephen B. & Gustafson, Matthew T. & Lewis, Ryan, 2022. "Partisan residential sorting on climate change risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(3), pages 989-1015.
    4. Aubhik Khan & Robert G. King & Alexander L. Wolman, 2003. "Optimal Monetary Policy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 70(4), pages 825-860.
    5. Ana Fostel & John Geanakoplos, 2012. "Leverage and Default in Binomial Economies: A Complete Characterization," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1877RRR, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Mar 2015.
    6. Solomon M. Hsiang & Daiju Narita, 2012. "Adaptation To Cyclone Risk: Evidence From The Global Cross-Section," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 3(02), pages 1-28.
    7. José-Luis Cruz & Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, 2024. "The Economic Geography of Global Warming," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 91(2), pages 899-939.
    8. Michael Bailey & Eduardo Dávila & Theresa Kuchler & Johannes Stroebel, 2019. "House Price Beliefs And Mortgage Leverage Choice," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 86(6), pages 2403-2452.
    9. Francois Gourio, 2012. "Disaster Risk and Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(6), pages 2734-2766, October.
    10. L. Rachel Ngai & Silvana Tenreyro, 2014. "Hot and Cold Seasons in the Housing Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(12), pages 3991-4026, December.
    11. Tim Landvoigt & Monika Piazzesi & Martin Schneider, 2015. "The Housing Market(s) of San Diego," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(4), pages 1371-1407, April.
    12. Veronica Guerrieri & Robert Shimer & Randall Wright, 2010. "Adverse Selection in Competitive Search Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 78(6), pages 1823-1862, November.
    13. Toan Phan, 2021. "Climate Change and Financial Stability? Recalling Lessons from the Great Recession," Richmond Fed Economic Brief, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 21(27), August.
    14. Dong, Ding & Liu, Zheng & Wang, Pengfei & Zha, Tao, 2022. "A theory of housing demand shocks," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    15. Erik Hurst & Benjamin J. Keys & Amit Seru & Joseph Vavra, 2016. "Regional Redistribution through the US Mortgage Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(10), pages 2982-3028, October.
    16. Javier Bianchi & Enrique G. Mendoza, 2018. "Optimal Time-Consistent Macroprudential Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(2), pages 588-634.
    17. Amine Ouazad, 2022. "Do Investors Hedge Against Green Swans? Option-Implied Risk Aversion to Wildfires," Papers 2208.06930, arXiv.org.
    18. Amine Ouazad & Matthew E Kahn, 2022. "Mortgage Finance and Climate Change: Securitization Dynamics in the Aftermath of Natural Disasters," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(8), pages 3617-3665.
    19. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393, Elsevier.
    20. Pablo Kurlat & Johannes Stroebel, 2015. "Testing for Information Asymmetries in Real Estate Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(8), pages 2429-2461.
    21. Jason Allen & Robert Clark & Jean-François Houde, 2019. "Search Frictions and Market Power in Negotiated-Price Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 127(4), pages 1550-1598.
    22. Franklin Allen & Gadi Barlevy & Douglas Gale, 2022. "Asset Price Booms and Macroeconomic Policy: A Risk-Shifting Approach," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(2), pages 243-280, April.
    23. Alan Barreca & Karen Clay & Olivier Deschenes & Michael Greenstone & Joseph S. Shapiro, 2016. "Adapting to Climate Change: The Remarkable Decline in the US Temperature-Mortality Relationship over the Twentieth Century," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(1), pages 105-159.
    24. Bengui, Julien & Phan, Toan, 2018. "Asset pledgeability and endogenously leveraged bubbles," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 280-314.
    25. Toan Phan, 2022. "Are Some Homebuyers Strategically Transferring Climate Risks to Lenders?," Richmond Fed Economic Brief, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 22(14), April.
    26. Daniel, Vanessa E. & Florax, Raymond J.G.M. & Rietveld, Piet, 2009. "Flooding risk and housing values: An economic assessment of environmental hazard," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 355-365, December.
    27. Allen Head & Huw Lloyd-Ellis & Hongfei Sun, 2014. "Search, Liquidity, and the Dynamics of House Prices and Construction," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(4), pages 1172-1210, April.
    28. Guillaume Rocheteau & Randall Wright & Cathy Zhang, 2018. "Corporate Finance and Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(4-5), pages 1147-1186, April.
    29. Robert J. Barro, 2009. "Rare Disasters, Asset Prices, and Welfare Costs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(1), pages 243-264, March.
    30. John Geanakoplos, 2009. "The Leverage Cycle," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1715R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jan 2010.
    31. Richard Berner & Robert Engle & Hyeyoon Jung, 2021. "CRISK: Measuring the Climate Risk Exposure of the Financial System," Staff Reports 977, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    32. Tsz-Nga Wong, 2016. "A Tractable Monetary Model under General Preferences," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 83(1), pages 402-420.
    33. Bernstein, Asaf & Gustafson, Matthew T. & Lewis, Ryan, 2019. "Disaster on the horizon: The price effect of sea level rise," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(2), pages 253-272.
    34. Peter D. Howe & Matto Mildenberger & Jennifer R. Marlon & Anthony Leiserowitz, 2015. "Geographic variation in opinions on climate change at state and local scales in the USA," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 5(6), pages 596-603, June.
    35. Hallstrom, Daniel G. & Smith, V. Kerry, 2005. "Market responses to hurricanes," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 541-561, November.
    36. Carlos Garriga & Aaron Hedlund, 2020. "Mortgage Debt, Consumption, and Illiquid Housing Markets in the Great Recession," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(6), pages 1603-1634, June.
    37. John Geanakoplos & Ana Fostel, 2008. "Leverage Cycles and the Anxious Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1211-1244, September.
    38. Jean Tirole, 1999. "Incomplete Contracts: Where Do We Stand?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(4), pages 741-782, July.
    39. Ana Fostel & John Geanakoplos, 2012. "Leverage and Default in Binomial Economies: A Complete Characterization," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1877R3, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Mar 2015.
    40. Markus Baldauf & Lorenzo Garlappi & Constantine Yannelis & José Scheinkman, 2020. "Does Climate Change Affect Real Estate Prices? Only If You Believe In It," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(3), pages 1256-1295.
    41. Painter, Marcus, 2020. "An inconvenient cost: The effects of climate change on municipal bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(2), pages 468-482.
    42. Jason Allen & Robert Clark & Jean-Fran?ois Houde, 2014. "The Effect of Mergers in Search Markets: Evidence from the Canadian Mortgage Industry," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(10), pages 3365-3396, October.
    43. Dan Cao, 2018. "Speculation and Financial Wealth Distribution Under Belief Heterogeneity," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 128(614), pages 2258-2281, September.
    44. Laura A. Bakkensen & Xiaozhou Ding & Lala Ma, 2019. "Flood Risk and Salience: New Evidence from the Sunshine State," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 85(4), pages 1132-1158, April.
    45. Carolyn Kousky & Erwann Michel-Kerjan, 2017. "Examining Flood Insurance Claims in the United States: Six Key Findings," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 84(3), pages 819-850, September.
    46. Matthew J. Hornsey & Emily A. Harris & Paul G. Bain & Kelly S. Fielding, 2016. "Meta-analyses of the determinants and outcomes of belief in climate change," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(6), pages 622-626, June.
    47. Johannes Stroebel, 2016. "Asymmetric Information about Collateral Values," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(3), pages 1071-1112, June.
    48. Ana Fostel & John Geanakoplos, 2015. "Leverage and Default in Binomial Economies: A Complete Characterization," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 83, pages 2191-2229, November.
    49. Matthew E. Kahn & V. Kerry Smith, 2017. "The Affordability Goal and Prices in the National Flood Insurance Program," NBER Working Papers 24120, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    50. Mian, Atif & Sufi, Amir, 2015. "House of Debt," University of Chicago Press Economics Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226271651, December.
    51. Robert Mendelsohn & Kerry Emanuel & Shun Chonabayashi & Laura Bakkensen, 2012. "The impact of climate change on global tropical cyclone damage," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(3), pages 205-209, March.
    52. Justin Murfin & Matthew Spiegel & Jose Scheinkman, 2020. "Is the Risk of Sea Level Rise Capitalized in Residential Real Estate?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(3), pages 1217-1255.
    53. Allen, Franklin & Gale, Douglas, 2000. "Bubbles and Crises," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(460), pages 236-255, January.
    54. John Geanakoplos, 2010. "The Leverage Cycle," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2009, Volume 24, pages 1-65, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    55. Alp Simsek, 2013. "Belief Disagreements and Collateral Constraints," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 81(1), pages 1-53, January.
    56. Zachary Bethune & Guillaume Rocheteau & Tsz-Nga Wong & Cathy Zhang, 2022. "Lending Relationships and Optimal Monetary Policy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(4), pages 1833-1872.
    57. Laura A Bakkensen & Lint Barrage, 2022. "Going Underwater? Flood Risk Belief Heterogeneity and Coastal Home Price Dynamics," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(8), pages 3666-3709.
    58. Kakuho Furukawa & Hibiki Ichiue & Noriyuki Shiraki, 2020. "How Does Climate Change Interact with the Financial System? A Survey," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 20-E-8, Bank of Japan.
    59. Bakkensen, Laura A. & Ma, Lala, 2020. "Sorting over flood risk and implications for policy reform," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    60. Celso Brunetti & Benjamin Dennis & Dylan Gates & Diana Hancock & David Ignell & Elizabeth K. Kiser & Gurubala Kotta & Anna Kovner & Richard J. Rosen & Nicholas K. Tabor, 2021. "Climate Change and Financial Stability," FEDS Notes 2021-03-19-3, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    61. Randall Wright & Philipp Kircher & Benoît Julien & Veronica Guerrieri, 2021. "Directed Search and Competitive Search Equilibrium: A Guided Tour," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 59(1), pages 90-148, March.
    62. Stephie Fried, 2021. "Seawalls and Stilts: A Quantitative Macro Study of Climate Adaptation," Working Paper Series 2021-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    63. Benjamin J. Keys & Philip Mulder, 2020. "Neglected No More: Housing Markets, Mortgage Lending, and Sea Level Rise," NBER Working Papers 27930, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Justin Contat & Carrie Hopkins & Luis Mejia & Matthew Suandi, 2024. "When climate meets real estate: A survey of the literature," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 52(3), pages 618-659, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Justin Contat & Carrie Hopkins & Luis Mejia & Matthew Suandi, 2024. "When climate meets real estate: A survey of the literature," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 52(3), pages 618-659, May.
    2. ÅžimÅŸek, Alp, 2021. "The Macroeconomics of Financial Speculation," CEPR Discussion Papers 15733, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Dasol Kim & Luke Olson & Toan Phan, 2024. "Bank Competition and Strategic Adaptation to Climate Change," Working Paper 24-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    4. William N Goetzmann & Christophe Spaenjers & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2021. "Real and Private-Value Assets [Gendered prices]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(8), pages 3497-3526.
    5. Bengui, Julien & Phan, Toan, 2018. "Asset pledgeability and endogenously leveraged bubbles," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 280-314.
    6. Wang, F. Albert, 2022. "Double leverage cycle, interest rate, and financial crisis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    7. Feixue Gong & Gregory Phelan, 2020. "Debt collateralization, capital structure, and maximal leverage," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 70(2), pages 579-605, September.
    8. Gabrovski, Miroslav & Ortego-Marti, Victor, 2021. "Search and credit frictions in the housing market," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    9. Michele Cascarano & Filippo Natoli, 2023. "Temperatures and search: evidence from the housing market," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1419, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    10. A. K. Karlis & G. Galanis & S. Terovitis & M. S. Turner, 2021. "Heterogeneity and clustering of defaults," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(9), pages 1533-1549, September.
    11. Bernstein, Asaf & Billings, Stephen B. & Gustafson, Matthew T. & Lewis, Ryan, 2022. "Partisan residential sorting on climate change risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(3), pages 989-1015.
    12. Karlis, Alexandros & Galanis, Girogos & Terovitis, Spyridon & Turner, Matthew, 2017. "Heterogeneity and Clustering of Defaults," Economic Research Papers 270011, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    13. Kakuho Furukawa & Hibiki Ichiue & Noriyuki Shiraki, 2020. "How Does Climate Change Interact with the Financial System? A Survey," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 20-E-8, Bank of Japan.
    14. Zehao Liu & Chengbo Xie, 2023. "Haircuts, interest rates, and credit cycles," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 76(1), pages 69-109, July.
    15. Matteo Benetton & Simone Emiliozzi & Elisa Guglielminetti & Michele Loberto & Alessandro Mistretta, 2022. "Do house prices reflect climate change adaptation? Evidence from the city on the water," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 735, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    16. Eszter Baranyai & Ádám Banai, 2022. "Heat projections and mortgage characteristics: evidence from the USA," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 175(3), pages 1-20, December.
    17. Phelan, Gregory & Toda, Alexis Akira, 2019. "Securitized markets, international capital flows, and global welfare," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(3), pages 571-592.
    18. Duc Duy Nguyen & Steven Ongena & Shusen Qi & Vathunyoo Sila, 2022. "Climate Change Risk and the Cost of Mortgage Credit [Does climate change affect real estate prices? Only if you believe in it]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 26(6), pages 1509-1549.
    19. Siddhartha Biswas & Mallick Hossain & David Zink, 2023. "California Wildfires, Property Damage, and Mortgage Repayment," Working Papers 23-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    20. repec:fip:fedpwp:96170 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Saki Bigio & Eduardo Zilberman, 2020. "Speculation-Driven Business Cycles," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 865, Central Bank of Chile.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    climate finance; sea-level rise; heterogeneous beliefs; real estate; mortgage; search and matching; monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedrwp:95450. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Christian Pascasio (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbrius.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.