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Seven Fallacies Concerning Milton Friedman's \"The Role of Monetary Policy\"

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Abstract
This paper analyzes Milton Friedman's (1968) article \"The Role of Monetary Policy,\" via a discussion of seven fallacies concerning the article. These fallacies are: (1) \"The Role of Monetary Policy\" was Friedman?s first public statement of the natural rate hypothesis. (2) The Friedman-Phelps Phillips curve was already presented in Samuelson and Solow's (1960) analysis. (3) Friedman's specification of the Phillips curve was based on perfect competition and no nominal rigidities. (4) Friedman?s (1968) account of monetary policy in the Great Depression contradicted the Monetary History's version. (5) Friedman (1968) stated that a monetary expansion will keep the unemployment rate and the real interest rate below their natural rates for two decades. (6) The zero lower bound on nominal interest rates invalidates the natural rate hypothesis. (7) Friedman's (1968) treatment of an interest-rate peg was refuted by the rational expectations revolution. The discussion lays out the reasons why each of these seven items is a fallacy and infers key aspects of the framework underlying Friedman?s (1968) analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Edward Nelson, 2018. "Seven Fallacies Concerning Milton Friedman's \"The Role of Monetary Policy\"," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-013, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2018-13
    DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2018.013
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    4. A. W. Phillips, 1958. "The Relation Between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wage Rates in the United Kingdom, 1861–1957," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 25(100), pages 283-299, November.
    5. Gordon, Robert J., 1976. "Recent developments in the theory of inflation and unemployment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 185-219, April.
    6. Frederic S. Mishkin & Adam S. Posen, 1997. "Inflation targeting: lessons from four countries," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 3(Aug), pages 9-110.
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    11. John H. Cochrane, 2017. "Michelson-Morley, Fisher, and Occam: The Radical Implications of Stable Quiet Inflation at the Zero Bound," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2017, volume 32, pages 113-226, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    1. Karl Whelan, 2021. "Central banks and inflation: where do we stand and how did we get here?," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 18(3), pages 310–330-3, December.
    2. Richard H. Clarida, 2019. "Models, Markets, and Monetary Policy : a speech at the Hoover Institution Monetary Policy Conference \"Strategies for Monetary Policy,\" Stanford University, Stanford, California, May 3, 201," Speech 1058, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fisher effect; Milton Friedman; Phillips curve; Liquidity effect; Natural rate hypothesis; Price stickiness; Zero lower bound;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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