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Pricing Poseidon: Extreme Weather Uncertainty and Firm Return Dynamics

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Abstract
We present a framework to identify market responses to uncertainty faced by firms regarding both the potential incidence of extreme weather events and subsequent economic impact. Stock options of firms with establishments in forecast and realized hurricane landfall regions exhibit large increases in implied volatility, reflecting significant incidence uncertainty and long-lasting impact uncertainty. Comparing ex ante expected volatility to ex post realized volatility by analyzing volatility risk premia changes shows that investors significantly underestimate extreme weather uncertainty. After Hurricane Sandy, this underreaction diminishes and, consistent with Merton (1987), these increases in idiosyncratic volatility are associated with positive expected stock returns.

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  • Mathias S. Kruttli & Brigitte Roth Tran & Sumudu W. Watugala, 2021. "Pricing Poseidon: Extreme Weather Uncertainty and Firm Return Dynamics," Working Paper Series 2021-23, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfwp:93259
    DOI: 10.24148/wp2021-23
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    Cited by:

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    2. Charles Fries & François Gourio, 2020. "Adaptation and the Cost of Rising Temperature for the U.S. Economy," Working Paper Series WP 2020-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    3. Kakuho Furukawa & Hibiki Ichiue & Noriyuki Shiraki, 2020. "How Does Climate Change Interact with the Financial System? A Survey," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 20-E-8, Bank of Japan.
    4. Reghezza, Alessio & Altunbas, Yener & Marques-Ibanez, David & Rodriguez d’Acri, Costanza & Spaggiari, Martina, 2022. "Do banks fuel climate change?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    5. Elsa Allman, 2022. "Pricing climate change risk in corporate bonds," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 23(7), pages 596-618, December.
    6. Andrew B. Martinez, 2020. "Forecast Accuracy Matters for Hurricane Damage," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-24, May.
    7. Xu, Weidong & Gao, Xin & Xu, Hao & Li, Donghui, 2022. "Does global climate risk encourage companies to take more risks?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    8. Joost Bats & Giovanna Bua & Daniel Kapp, 2023. "Physical and transition risk premiums in euro area corporate bond markets," Working Papers 761, DNB.
    9. Bats, Joost Victor & Bua, Giovanna & Kapp, Daniel, 2024. "Physical and transition risk premiums in euro area corporate bond markets," Working Paper Series 2899, European Central Bank.
    10. Tristan Jourde & Arthur Stalla-Bourdillon, 2024. "PEnvironmental Preferences and Sector Valuations," Working papers 964, Banque de France.
    11. Gong, Xu & Fu, Chengbo & Huang, Qiping & Lin, Meimei, 2022. "International political uncertainty and climate risk in the stock market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    12. Gregory, Richard P., 2021. "Climate disasters, carbon dioxide, and financial fundamentals," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 45-58.
    13. Brei, Michael & Mohan, Preeya & Perez Barahona, Agustin & Strobl, Eric, 2024. "Transmission of natural disasters to the banking sector: Evidence from thirty years of tropical storms in the Caribbean," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    14. Venturini, Alessio, 2022. "Climate change, risk factors and stock returns: A review of the literature," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    15. Sangmin Oh & Ishita Sen & Ana-Maria Tenekedjieva, 2022. "Pricing of Climate Risk Insurance: Regulation and Cross-Subsidies," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2022-064, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    16. Azar, José & Duro, Miguel & Kadach, Igor & Ormazabal, Gaizka, 2021. "The Big Three and corporate carbon emissions around the world," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 674-696.
    17. Renato Molina & Ivan Rudik, 2022. "The Social Value of Predicting Hurricanes," CESifo Working Paper Series 10049, CESifo.
    18. Drudi, Francesco & Moench, Emanuel & Holthausen, Cornelia & Weber, Pierre-François & Ferrucci, Gianluigi & Setzer, Ralph & Adao, Bernardino & Dées, Stéphane & Alogoskoufis, Spyros & Téllez, Mar Delgad, 2021. "Climate change and monetary policy in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 271, European Central Bank.
    19. Michael Barnett, 2024. "A Run on Fossil Fuel? Climate Change and Transition Risk," Papers 2410.00902, arXiv.org.
    20. Jakob Miethe, 2020. "The Elusive Banker: Using Hurricanes to Uncover (Non-)Activity in Offshore Financial Centers," CESifo Working Paper Series 8625, CESifo.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    extreme weather; uncertainty; implied volatility; expected returns; climate risks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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