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Deflation and the international Great Depression: a productivity puzzle

Author

Listed:
  • Harold L. Cole
  • Ron Leung
  • Lee E. Ohanian
Abstract
This paper presents a dynamic, stochastic general equilibrium study of the causes of the international Great Depression. We use a fully articulated model to assess the relative contributions of deflation/monetary shocks, which are the most commonly cited shocks for the Depression, and productivity shocks. We find that productivity is the dominant shock, accounting for about 2/3 of the Depression, with the monetary shock accounting for about 1/3. The main reason deflation doesn't account for more of the Depression is because there is no systematic relationship between deflation and output during this period. Our finding that a persistent productivity shock is the key factor stands in contrast to the conventional view that a continuing sequence of unexpected deflation shocks was the major cause of the Depression. We also explore what factors might be causing the productivity shocks. We find some evidence that they are largely related to industrial activity, rather than agricultural activity, and that they are correlated with real exchange rates and non-deflationary shocks to the financial sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Harold L. Cole & Ron Leung & Lee E. Ohanian, 2005. "Deflation and the international Great Depression: a productivity puzzle," Staff Report 356, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmsr:356
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. 2008=1929?
      by Economic Logician in Economic Logic on 2008-03-24 16:15:00

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    Cited by:

    1. Jorge Alonso-Ortiz & Esteban Colla & José-María Da-Rocha, 2017. "The productivity cost of sovereign default: evidence from the European debt crisis," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 64(4), pages 611-633, December.
    2. AKIYOSHI Fumio & KOBAYASHI Keiichiro, 2007. "Bank Distress and Productivity of Borrowing Firms: Evidence from Japan," Discussion papers 07014, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    3. Price Fishback, 2010. "US monetary and fiscal policy in the 1930s," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 26(3), pages 385-413, Autumn.
    4. Ritschl, Albrecht & Sarferaz, Samad, 2009. "Crisis? What Crisis? Currency vs. Banking in the Financial Crisis of 1931," CEPR Discussion Papers 7610, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Gregor W. Smith, 2006. "The spectre of deflation: a review of empirical evidence," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(4), pages 1041-1072, November.
    6. Albrecht Ritschl & Monique Ebell, 2007. "Real Origins of the Great Depression: Monopoly Power, Unions and the American Business Cycle in the 1920s," 2007 Meeting Papers 712, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. Keiichiro Kobayashi & Noriyuki Yanagawa, 2007. "Bank Distress and the Borrowers' Productivity," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-521, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    8. Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist & Fabio M. Natalucci, 2007. "External Constraints on Monetary Policy and the Financial Accelerator," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2‐3), pages 295-330, March.
    9. Heer, Burkhard & Schubert, Stefan Franz, 2012. "Unemployment and debt dynamics in a highly indebted small open economy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1392-1413.
    10. Klein, Alexander & Otsuy, Keisuke, 2013. "Efficiency, Distortions and Factor Utilization during the Interwar Period," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 147, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    11. Luca Pensieroso, 2007. "Real Business Cycle Models Of The Great Depression: A Critical Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(1), pages 110-142, February.
    12. Ritschl, Albrecht & Ebell, Monique, 2007. "Real Origins of the Great Depression: Monopolistic Competition, Union Power, and the American Business Cycle in the 1920s," CEPR Discussion Papers 6146, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Pedro S. Amaral & James MacGee, 2009. "Re-Examining the Role of Sticky Wages in the U.S. Great Contraction: A Multisectoral Approach," Working Papers (Old Series) 0911, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    14. Schubert, Stefan F., 2011. "The effects of total factor productivity and export shocks on a small open economy with unemployment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(9), pages 1514-1530, September.
    15. Alex Klein & Keisuke Otsu, 2013. "Efficiency, Distortions and Factor Utilization during the Interwar Period," Studies in Economics 1317, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    16. Christian Alexander Belabed, 2015. "Income Distribution and the Great Depression," IMK Working Paper 153-2015, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    17. Fabien Tripier, 2009. "Elasticity of factor substitution and the rise in labor's share of income during the Great Depression," Working Papers hal-00419343, HAL.
    18. Ritschl, Albrecht & Ahmadi, Pooyan Amir, 2009. "Depression Econometrics: A FAVAR Model of Monetary Policy During the Great Depression," CEPR Discussion Papers 7546, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    19. Luca Pensieroso, 2011. "The Great Depression in Belgium from a Neoclassical Perspective," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(2), pages 389-402, Arpil.
    20. Francesca Carapella, 2015. "Banking panics and deflation in dynamic general equilibrium," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-18, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    21. KOBAYASHI Keiichiro & YANAGAWA Noriyuki, 2008. "Banking Crisis and Borrower Productivity," Discussion papers 08003, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    22. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2007-006 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Amaral, Pedro S. & MacGee, James C., 2017. "Monetary shocks and sticky wages in the U.S. great contraction: A multi-sector approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 112-129.
    24. Satyajit Chatterjee & Dean Corbae, 2006. "Monetary and financial forces in the Great Depression," Working Papers 06-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Deflation (Finance); Depressions; Production (Economic theory);
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General
    • N1 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations

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