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Studying a Sin Tax Scheme with Multiple Reforms - Lessons for Consumption Taxation

Author

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  • Kosonen, Tuomas
  • Jysmä, Sami
  • Savolainen, Riikka
Abstract
This paper studies the relationship between substitutability of taxed and nontaxed goods and the price elasticity of demand. We organize the paper through a simple model that yields as a result a highly convex relationship between the demand elasticity and how close non-taxed substitutes are available. Empirically we analyze a Finnish sin tax scheme for sweets, soda and ice cream providing us with quasi-experimental variation through multiple reforms. We have product and storelevel data on sales and prices containing hundreds of millions of observations. We also develop survey evidence on substitution preferences across categories of goods. Our estimated consumption elasticity is close to zero for sweets and ice cream that have intermediate non-taxed substitute: cookies. In a stark contrast, when the tax rate was doubled for sugary soft drinks but not for their close substitute non-sugary soft drinks, consumption elasticity is close to unity. These estimates align well with our theory framework wherein even with intermediate non-taxed substitutes available the demand elasticity is close to zero, while it is close to unity when very close substitutes are available. We also provide evidence that the quasiexperimental price elasticity estimates in the previous literature align with our theory framework.

Suggested Citation

  • Kosonen, Tuomas & Jysmä, Sami & Savolainen, Riikka, 2024. "Studying a Sin Tax Scheme with Multiple Reforms - Lessons for Consumption Taxation," Working Papers 164, VATT Institute for Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:fer:wpaper:164
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    File URL: https://www.doria.fi/handle/10024/188798
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. U. Michael Bergman & Niels Lynggård Hansen, 2019. "Are Excise Taxes on Beverages Fully Passed Through to Prices? The Danish Evidence," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 75(4), pages 323-356.
    2. Cawley, John, 2015. "An economy of scales: A selective review of obesity's economic causes, consequences, and solutions," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 244-268.
    3. Eugenio J. Miravete & Katja Seim & Jeff Thurk, 2020. "One Markup to Rule Them All: Taxation by Liquor Pricing Regulation," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(1), pages 1-41, February.
    4. William N. Evans & Jeanne S. Ringel & Diana Stech, 1999. "Tobacco Taxes and Public Policy to Discourage Smoking," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 13, pages 1-56, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Kelvin J. Lancaster, 1966. "A New Approach to Consumer Theory," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 74(2), pages 132-132.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    excise taxes; sin tax; consumption; substitution; sweets; soda; Social security; taxation and inequality; H2; I18; fi=Verotus|sv=Beskattning|en=Taxation|;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H2 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

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