Nothing Special   »   [go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fce/doctra/9803.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Discussing Euro Volatility

Author

Abstract
This paper deals with Euro introduction and ask whether it is likely to increase the exchange rates volatility on a world-wide scale. Following this purpose, we present a three country-model (US, Germany and France) and compare the exchange rate volatility according to the nature of the shock (demand or supply shock) and to the exchange rate regime in Europe (flexible, EMS or EMU). Each country is represented by two authorities: a central bank and a government (a single central bank and two governments in Europe in the case of EMU). Within this framework, we compute Nash-equilibria. In theory, the exchange rate of a large closed country fluctuates more than the exchange rate of a small open country (the size effect), but results are ambiguous in the specific case of the Euro. An increase in volatility would only occur after demand and external supply shocks. Volatility would be reduced following internal supply shocks. The conclusions are the opposite if the sensitivity of intra-European trade to relative prices is particularly strong. In the case of common shocks in Europe, the excess of volatility would help economic stabilisation. As for asymmetric shocks (hitting only one country), the Euro would fluctuate less than the currency of the hit country in the previous monetary system (EMS), but this stability would harm economic stabilisation, as loss functions show. We note also that the independence of the ECB could lead to strong variations of the Euro after inflationary shocks if the ECB and European governments do not share the same inflation target. The constraints on fiscal policies which are induced by the Stability pact could make more active monetary policies necessary: these would be a source of instability for the Euro.

Suggested Citation

  • Jerome Creel & Henri Sterdyniak, 1998. "Discussing Euro Volatility," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 1998-03, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    • Handle: RePEc:fce:doctra:9803
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ofce.sciences-po.fr/pdf/dtravail/wp98-03.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Henri Sterdyniak & Pierre Villa, 1993. "Régimes de change et coordination des politiques économiques en Europe," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 43(1), pages 307-348.
    2. Leonardo Bartolini & Gordon M. Bodnar, 1996. "Are Exchange Rates Excessively Volatile? And What Does "Excessively Volatile" Mean, Anyway?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 43(1), pages 72-96, March.
    3. Cohen, Daniel, 1997. "How will the euro behave ?," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 9704, CEPREMAP.
    4. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Benoît Mojon & Jean Pisani-Ferry, 1997. "The Euro and Exchange Rate Stability," Working Papers 1997-12, CEPII research center.
    5. Martin, Philippe, 1998. "The Exchange Rate Policy of the Euro: A Matter of Size?," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 455-482, December.
    6. Fabrice Capoen & Henri Sterdyniak & Pierre Villa, 1994. "Indépendance des banques centrales, politiques monétaire et budgétaire : une approche stratégique," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 50(1), pages 65-102.
    7. Pesaran, B & Robinson, G, 1993. "The European Exchange Rate Mechanism and the Volatility of the Sterling-Deutschemark Exchange Rate," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(421), pages 1418-1431, November.
    8. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5265 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Leonardo Bartolini & Gordon M. Bodnar, 1996. "Are exchange rates excessively volatile? And what does \\"excessively volatile\\" mean, anyway?," Research Paper 9601, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    10. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5266 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Y. K. Tse, 1998. "The conditional heteroscedasticity of the yen-dollar exchange rate," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(1), pages 49-55.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/2963 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/2973 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Fayolle, J. & Micolet, P-E., 1998. "Cycles internationaux et européens: éléments pour une problématique appliquée," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 1998-01, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    4. Jérôme Creel & Henri Sterdyniak, 1998. "À propos de la volatilité de l'euro," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 65(1), pages 199-226.
    5. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/2973 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/2963 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/2973 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/2973 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/2963 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/2963 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Fabrice Capoen & Jérôme Creel, 2007. "Efficiency of stability-oriented institutions: the European case," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03461990, HAL.
    12. Menguy, Severine, 2007. "The advantages of introducing an exchange rate target within the statutes of the European Central Bank," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 304-316, October.
    13. Carsten Detken & Philipp Hartmann, 2000. "The Euro and International Capital Markets," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(1), pages 53-94, April.
    14. Ricci, Luca Antonio & Isard, Peter, 2002. "European monetary union, adjustment, and exchange rate variability," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 229-251, February.
    15. McCauley, R.N., 1997. "The Euro and the Dollar," Princeton Essays in International Economics 205, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
    16. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Benoît Mojon & Armand-Denis Schor, 1998. "The International Role of the Euro," Working Papers 1998-03, CEPII research center.
    17. Demertzis, Maria & Hughes Hallett, Andrew, 1999. "EMU and the External Value of the Euro," CEPR Discussion Papers 2058, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Benoît Mojon, 1998. "EMU and Transatlantic Exchange Rate Stability," Working Papers 1998-02, CEPII research center.
    19. Françoise Le Quéré, 1999. "Les sources de l'internationalisation de l'euro," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 52(2), pages 31-54.
    20. Lefebvre, Dominique, 1997. "Euro Internationalization," MPRA Paper 89353, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Marie-Noëlle Cales, 1999. "Les enjeux du rattachement des monnaies du Maghreb à l'euro," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 52(2), pages 147-161.
    22. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Benoît Mojon & Jean Pisani-Ferry, 1997. "The Euro and Exchange Rate Stability," Working Papers 1997-12, CEPII research center.
    23. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/2977 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Jacques Le Cacheux, 1998. "La diffusion internationale de l'euro," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 65(1), pages 227-241.
    25. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/2096 is not listed on IDEAS
    26. Vaubel, Roland, 1999. "The Future of the Euro : A Public Choice Perspective," Discussion Papers 570, Institut fuer Volkswirtschaftslehre und Statistik, Abteilung fuer Volkswirtschaftslehre.
    27. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/2096 is not listed on IDEAS
    28. Juan Pi??eiro Chousa, & Artur Tamazian, & Davit N. Melikyan,, 2008. "MARKET RISK DYNAMICS AND COMPETITIVENESS AFTER THE EURO: Evidence from EMU Members," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp916, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    29. Pippenger, John, 2002. "A Better Measure of Relative Volatility," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt3tp6j494, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
    30. Robert McCauley, 1999. "The Euro and the Dollar, 1998," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 91-133, February.
    31. Cavelaars, Paul, 2006. "Why the world should love the euro: The welfare implications of EMU for third countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 326-337, June.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fce:doctra:9803. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Francesco Saraceno (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ofcspfr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.