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Evidence of supply security and sustainability challenges in Nigeria's power sector

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  • Magazzino, Cosimo
  • Drago, Carlo
  • Schneider, Nicolas
Abstract
The increasing mismatch between the demand and supply of power in Nigeria raises concerns about the ability of this country to meet its vital energy security and sustainability targets in a demography-growing environment. This paper assesses how these three factors comove over the long run. While Nigeria provides an illustrative case, a multivariate framework including population dynamics, the demand for electricity, and CO2 emissions from the power and heating sector is set with actual time-series data spanning the last five decades. Two independent estimation strategies are conducted: a time-series analysis (i.e., Least Squares with breaks regression) is complemented with Machine Learning experiments (i.e., ML Clustering method). In general, both methodologies’ outputs stress the engine role of the population in driving the demand for power over the long run.

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  • Magazzino, Cosimo & Drago, Carlo & Schneider, Nicolas, 2023. "Evidence of supply security and sustainability challenges in Nigeria's power sector," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 119355, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:119355
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    2. Patrizia Gazzola & Carlo Drago & Enrica Pavione & Noemi Pignoni, 2024. "Sustainable Business Models: An Empirical Analysis of Environmental Sustainability in Leading Manufacturing Companies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(19), pages 1-15, September.
    3. Opeoluwa Seun Ojekemi & Mehmet Ağa & Cosimo Magazzino, 2023. "Towards Achieving Sustainability in the BRICS Economies: The Role of Renewable Energy Consumption and Economic Risk," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(14), pages 1-18, July.
    4. Ahmed Jinjiri Bala & Aminu Hassan & Muhammad Liman Muhammad, 2024. "Do board characteristics matter in the relationship between intellectual capital efficiency and firm value? Evidence from the Nigerian oil and gas downstream sector," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 1-24, December.
    5. Wang, Jia & Zhang, Zilong, 2023. "Impact of renewable energy and agriculture on mineral resources rents: Do economic and environmental aspects matter," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 87(PB).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    CO2 emissions; electricity; energy security; machine Learning; population; sustainability; time series;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R14 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Land Use Patterns
    • J01 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - Labor Economics: General

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