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Immobilienpreise und immobilienzyklen und die rolle von angebotsbeschränkungen

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  • Hilber, Christian A. L.
Abstract
Dieser Artikel untersucht die Auswirkungen von Angebotsbeschränkungen auf die Wachstumsrate und Zyklizität von Immobilienpreisen. Einfache Überlegungen zum Zusammenspiel von Angebot und Nachfrage lassen vermuten, dass Immobilienpreise dort stärker auf lokale Nachfrageschocks reagieren, wo es stärkere Bodennutzungsregulierungen und geografische Barrieren zur Erschließung und Bebauung von Flächen gibt, d. h. wo das Wohnimmobilienangebot preisunelastischer ist. Diese Vermutung wird durch die empirische Evidenz gestützt. Lokale Bodennutzungsregulierungen sind ein besonders entscheidender Faktor, welcher nicht nur lokale Unterschiede im Preiswachstum, sondern auch in der Preiszyklizität erklärt. Allerdings können sich starke Immobilienpreisaufschwünge auch in Standorten etwickeln, in denen die Bautätigkeit langfristig kaum eingeschränkt ist. Ein typisches Merkmal solcher Zyklen ist, dass der Preisverfall aufgrund erheblicher Überkapazitäten tendenziell ausgeprägter ist, als der Anstieg während der vorherigen Boomphase, so dass Immobilienpreise nach dem Preisverfall häufig niedriger sind als vor Beginn des Booms. Die Kurzsichtigkeit von Erschließungsunternehmen und Kreditgebern in Verknüpfung mit kurzfristigen Angebotsrigiditäten oder irrationale Übertreibungen (Euphorie unter Investoren) sind zwei plausible Erklärungen für dieses Phänomen.

Suggested Citation

  • Hilber, Christian A. L., 2019. "Immobilienpreise und immobilienzyklen und die rolle von angebotsbeschränkungen," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 102977, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:102977
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    house prices; real estate prices; real estate cycles; house price cycles; housing supply; land supply; supply constraints; topography; supply price elasticity; income price elasticity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • N0 - Economic History - - General

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