Nothing Special   »   [go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ems/euriss/50075.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Macroeconomics of natural disasters

Author

Listed:
  • van Bergeijk, P.A.G.
  • Lazzaroni, S.
Abstract
We use the case of the impact of natural disasters to analyse strengths and weaknesses of meta-analysis in an emerging research field. Macroeconomists have published on this issue since 2002 (we identified 22 studies to date). The results of the studies are contradictory and therefore the need to synthesize the available research is evident. Meta-analysis is a useful method in this field. First, we observe many methodological differences in terms of heterogeneity in the data sources, the samples (country coverage and research period), the econometric specifications and the estimation procedures. We use meta-analysis both to identify the extent of heterogeneity and its potential impact and to find out research needs. Second, in this emerging scientific field the findings are preliminary and often contradictory due to the scientific process of finding out the ‘true’ effect. Meta-analysis can be used to distil this effect that often cannot be observed on the basis of individual studies. Third, as meta-analysis provides a transparent and objective way to synthesize research, this tool is useful in an area that like natural disasters impact is vulnerable to bias due to the ideological or intrinsic motivation of the researcher. An aim of our paper is to show how one can use the identified methodological characteristics to better understand the significance of future findings. Understanding the robustness and importance of new findings is crucial because they influence policy decisions with a potentially long-run impact, especially since both prevention and mitigation require investments over considerable periods of time. The second aim is to find out what are the most important research needs from the perspective of the emerging literature. We identify strengths and weaknesses in terms of coverage and robustness of control variables showing gaps in the literature and highlighting the importance of some rigour in the phase of reporting results and, for example, suggest that it is necessary to include population and institutions more often among the control variables. We also provide a study on the IPCC’s special report Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation in order to contrast the meta-analysis and its findings with an influential traditional review of literature (that also comprises qualitative research). The two methods force two different perspectives on researchers and each perspective helps to uncover other (aspects of) literatures. Our conclusion is that research synthesis would benefit from combining the two approaches. A meta-analysis without a traditional review of the literature is incomplete.

Suggested Citation

  • van Bergeijk, P.A.G. & Lazzaroni, S., 2013. "Macroeconomics of natural disasters," ISS Working Papers - General Series 50075, International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam (ISS), The Hague.
    • Handle: RePEc:ems:euriss:50075
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://repub.eur.nl/pub/50075/wp567.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stéphane Hallegatte & Valentin Przyluski, 2010. "The Economics of Natural Disasters," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 11(02), pages 14-24, July.
    2. Noy, Ilan, 2009. "The macroeconomic consequences of disasters," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 221-231, March.
    3. Philip DeCicca & Don Kenkel, 2015. "Synthesizing Econometric Evidence: The Case of Demand Elasticity Estimates," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(6), pages 1073-1085, June.
    4. Eric Strobl, 2011. "The Economic Growth Impact of Hurricanes: Evidence from U.S. Coastal Counties," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(2), pages 575-589, May.
    5. Lazzaroni, Sara & van Bergeijk, Peter A.G., 2014. "Natural disasters' impact, factors of resilience and development: A meta-analysis of the macroeconomic literature," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 333-346.
    6. Toya, Hideki & Skidmore, Mark, 2007. "Economic development and the impacts of natural disasters," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 20-25, January.
    7. Mark Skidmore & Hideki Toya, 2013. "Natural Disaster Impacts and Fiscal Decentralization," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 89(1), pages 101-117.
    8. W. Robert Reed & Robert Mercer, 2013. "REPLICATION STUDY: Toya and Skidmore (Economics Letters, 2007," Working Papers in Economics 13/05, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
    9. Peter A.G. van Bergeijk, 2013. "Earth Economics," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14673.
    10. Christian R. Jaramillo H., 2009. "Do Natural Disasters Have Long-term Effects on Growth?," Documentos CEDE 6647, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    11. Hallegatte, Stephane, 2012. "A cost effective solution to reduce disaster losses in developing countries : hydro-meteorological services, early warning, and evacuation," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6058, The World Bank.
    12. Mr. Tobias N. Rasmussen, 2004. "Macroeconomic Implications of Natural Disasters in the Caribbean," IMF Working Papers 2004/224, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Noy, Ilan & Vu, Tam Bang, 2010. "The economics of natural disasters in a developing country: The case of Vietnam," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 345-354, August.
    14. Okuyama, Yasuhide & Sahin, Sebnem, 2009. "Impact estimation of disasters : a global aggregate for 1960 to 2007," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4963, The World Bank.
    15. Padli, Jaharudin & Habibullah, M.S., 2008. "Natural disaster death and socio-economic factors in selected Asian countries: A panel data analysis," MPRA Paper 11921, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Hristos Doucouliagos & Martin Paldam, 2009. "The Aid Effectiveness Literature: The Sad Results Of 40 Years Of Research," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(3), pages 433-461, July.
    17. Jaharudin Padli & Muzafar Shah Habibullah & A.H. Baharom, 2010. "Economic impact of natural disasters' fatalities," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 37(6), pages 429-441, May.
    18. Hochrainer, Stefan, 2009. "Assessing the macroeconomic impacts of natural disasters : are there any ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4968, The World Bank.
    19. Albala-Bertrand, J. M., 1993. "Political Economy of Large Natural Disasters: With Special Reference to Developing Countries," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198287650.
    20. Anbarci, Nejat & Escaleras, Monica & Register, Charles A., 2005. "Earthquake fatalities: the interaction of nature and political economy," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(9-10), pages 1907-1933, September.
    21. Tavares, Jose, 2004. "The open society assesses its enemies: shocks, disasters and terrorist attacks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(5), pages 1039-1070, July.
    22. Ilan Noy & Aekkanush Nualsri, 2007. "What do Exogenous Shocks Tell Us about Growth Theories?," Working Papers 200728, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
    23. Mark Skidmore & Hideki Toya, 2002. "Do Natural Disasters Promote Long-Run Growth?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 40(4), pages 664-687, October.
    24. Monica Escaleras & Nejat Anbarci & Charles Register, 2007. "Public sector corruption and major earthquakes: A potentially deadly interaction," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 132(1), pages 209-230, July.
    25. Matthew E. Kahn, 2005. "The Death Toll from Natural Disasters: The Role of Income, Geography, and Institutions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(2), pages 271-284, May.
    26. Moons, S.J.V. & van Bergeijk, P.A.G., 2013. "A meta-analysis of economic diplomacy and its effect on international economic flows," ISS Working Papers - General Series 50074, International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam (ISS), The Hague.
    27. Yasuhide Okuyama, 2007. "Economic Modeling for Disaster Impact Analysis: Past, Present, and Future," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(2), pages 115-124.
    28. Raymond J.G.M. Florax & Henri L.F. de Groot & Ruud A. de Mooij, 2002. "Meta-analysis: A Tool for Upgrading Inputs of Macroeconomic Policy Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 02-041/3, Tinbergen Institute.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Tatyana Deryugina, 2017. "The Fiscal Cost of Hurricanes: Disaster Aid versus Social Insurance," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 168-198, August.
    2. Lazzaroni, Sara & van Bergeijk, Peter A.G., 2014. "Natural disasters' impact, factors of resilience and development: A meta-analysis of the macroeconomic literature," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 333-346.
    3. Selwyn J. V. Moons & Peter A. G. Bergeijk, 2017. "Does Economic Diplomacy Work? A Meta-analysis of Its Impact on Trade and Investment," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(2), pages 336-368, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lazzaroni, Sara & van Bergeijk, Peter A.G., 2014. "Natural disasters' impact, factors of resilience and development: A meta-analysis of the macroeconomic literature," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 333-346.
    2. Peter A. G. van Bergeijk & Sara Lazzaroni, 2015. "Macroeconomics of Natural Disasters: Strengths and Weaknesses of Meta‐Analysis Versus Review of Literature," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(6), pages 1050-1072, June.
    3. Eduardo Cavallo & Ilan Noy, 2009. "The Economics of Natural Disasters - A Survey," Working Papers 200919, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
    4. Fujin Zhou & Wouter Botzen, 2021. "Firm Level Evidence of Disaster Impacts on Growth in Vietnam," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 79(2), pages 277-322, June.
    5. F. Zhou & W.J.W. Botzen, 2017. "The Impact of Natural Disasters on Firm Growth in Vietnam:: Interaction with Financial Constraints," Working Papers 17-20, Utrecht School of Economics.
    6. Loayza, Norman V. & Olaberría, Eduardo & Rigolini, Jamele & Christiaensen, Luc, 2012. "Natural Disasters and Growth: Going Beyond the Averages," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(7), pages 1317-1336.
    7. Matteo Coronese & Davide Luzzati, 2022. "Economic impacts of natural hazards and complexity science: a critical review," LEM Papers Series 2022/13, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    8. Matthew A. COLE & Robert J R ELLIOTT & OKUBO Toshihiro & Eric STROBL, 2013. "Natural Disasters and Plant Survival: The impact of the Kobe earthquake," Discussion papers 13063, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    9. Matthew A. COLE & Robert J R ELLIOTT & OKUBO Toshihiro & Eric STROBL, 2015. "Natural Disasters, Industrial Clusters and Manufacturing Plant Survival," Discussion papers 15008, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    10. Ercio Muñoz S. & Alfredo Pistelli M., 2010. "¿Tienen los Terremotos un Impacto Inflacionario en el Corto Plazo? Evidencia para una Muestra de Países," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 13(2), pages 113-127, April.
    11. Matthew Ranson & Lisa Tarquinio & Audrey Lew, 2016. "Modeling the Impact of Climate Change on Extreme Weather Losses," NCEE Working Paper Series 201602, National Center for Environmental Economics, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, revised May 2016.
    12. -, 2010. "The economics of climate change in Central America: summary 2010," Sede de la CEPAL en Santiago (Estudios e Investigaciones) 35229, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    13. Suman K SHARMA, 2010. "Socio-Economic Aspects of Disaster’s Impact: An Assessment of Databases and Methodologies," Economic Growth Centre Working Paper Series 1001, Nanyang Technological University, School of Social Sciences, Economic Growth Centre.
    14. Diego D'iaz & Pablo Paniagua & Cristi'an Larroulet, 2024. "Earthquakes and the wealth of nations: The cases of Chile and New Zealand," Papers 2405.12041, arXiv.org.
    15. Kousky, Carolyn, 2014. "Informing climate adaptation: A review of the economic costs of natural disasters," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 576-592.
    16. Eiji Yamamura, 2012. "Death tolls from natural disasters: Influence of interactions among fiscal decentralization, institutions and economic development," EERI Research Paper Series EERI_RP_2012_08, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
    17. Kousky, Carolyn, 2012. "Informing Climate Adaptation: A Review of the Economic Costs of Natural Disasters, Their Determinants, and Risk Reduction Options," RFF Working Paper Series dp-12-28, Resources for the Future.
    18. I. Koetsier, 2017. "The fiscal impact of natural disasters," Working Papers 17-17, Utrecht School of Economics.
    19. Noy, Ilan & Vu, Tam Bang, 2010. "The economics of natural disasters in a developing country: The case of Vietnam," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 345-354, August.
    20. Tam Bang Vu & Calvin Luscombe & Shaun McKim, 2014. "Natural Disasters in Japan and Tourism in Developing Countries: The Case of the Pacific Islands," Journal of Empirical Economics, Research Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 3(2), pages 98-107.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ems:euriss:50075. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: RePub (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/issssnl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.