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How polycentric is a monocentric city? Centers, spillovers and hysteresis

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  • Ahlfeldt, Gabriel M.
  • Wendland, Nicolai
Abstract
We assess the extent to which firms in an environment of decreasing transport costs and industrial transformation value the benefits of proximity to a historic central business district (CBD) and agglomeration economies in their location decisions. Taking a hybrid perspective of classical bid-rent theory and a world where clustering of economic activity is driven by between-firm spillovers, Berlin, Germany, from 1890 to 1936 serves as a case in point. Our results suggest that the average productivity effect of a doubling of between-firm spillovers over the study period increases from 3.5% to 8.3%. As the city transforms into a service-based economy, several micro-agglomerations emerge. Their locations close to the CBD still make the city look roughly monocentric. This is in line with a hysteresis effect in which second-nature geography drives the ongoing strength of a historic city center even though the importance of the originally relevant first-nature geography has vanished.

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  • Ahlfeldt, Gabriel M. & Wendland, Nicolai, 2012. "How polycentric is a monocentric city? Centers, spillovers and hysteresis," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 62242, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    • Handle: RePEc:dar:wpaper:62242
    DOI: 10.1093/jeg/lbs013
    Note: for complete metadata visit http://tubiblio.ulb.tu-darmstadt.de/62242/
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    Cited by:

    1. Gabriel M. Ahlfeldt & Kristoffer Moeller & Nicolai Wendland, 2015. "Chicken or egg? The PVAR econometrics of transportation," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 15(6), pages 1169-1193.
    2. Zhang, Bin & Xin, Qingyao & Chen, Siyuan & Yang, Zhiying & Wang, Zhaohua, 2024. "Urban spatial structure and commuting-related carbon emissions in China: Do monocentric cities emit more?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).
    3. Ahlfeldt, Gabriel M. & Pietrostefani, Elisabetta, 2019. "The economic effects of density: A synthesis," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 93-107.
    4. Mona Jabbari & Fernando Fonseca & Rui Ramos, 2021. "Accessibility and Connectivity Criteria for Assessing Walkability: An Application in Qazvin, Iran," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-18, March.
    5. Gabriel M. Ahfeldt & Elisabetta Pietrostefani, 2017. "The Compact City in Empirical Research: A Quantitative Literature Review," SERC Discussion Papers 0215, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    6. Huai, Yue & Lo, Hong K. & Ng, Ka Fai, 2021. "Monocentric versus polycentric urban structure: Case study in Hong Kong," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 99-118.
    7. Quentin Lepetit & Vincent Viguié & Charlotte Liotta, 2023. "A gridded dataset on densities, real estate prices, transport, and land use inside 192 worldwide urban areas," Post-Print hal-04433873, HAL.
    8. Waights, Sevrin, 2018. "Does the law of one price hold for hedonic prices?," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 55(15), pages 3299-3317.
    9. Gabriel M Ahlfeldt, 2013. "If We Build it, Will They Pay? Predicting Property Price Effects of Transport Innovations," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 45(8), pages 1977-1994, August.
    10. Cuberes, David & Roberts, Jennifer & Sechel, Cristina, 2019. "Household location in English cities," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 120-135.
    11. Hanlon, W.Walker & Heblich, Stephan, 2022. "History and urban economics," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    12. Ahfeldt, Gabriel M. & Pietrostefani, Elisabetta, 2017. "The compact city in empirical research: A quantitative literature review," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 83638, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    13. Yu-Hui Chen & Chien-Wen Peng & Chung-Hsien Yang, 2022. "Vertical Housing Price Gradient and Ground Floor Premium in Taipei City," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 25(2), pages 199-216.
    14. Charlotte Liotta & Vincent Viguié & Felix Creutzig, 2023. "Environmental and welfare gains via urban transport policy portfolios across 120 cities," Post-Print hal-04445981, HAL.
    15. Nicolai Wendland, 2015. "All access: a micro-level case study on the secondary center of Berlin (1871–1936)," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 54(2), pages 375-399, March.
    16. Mingshu Wang, 2021. "Polycentric urban development and urban amenities: Evidence from Chinese cities," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 48(3), pages 400-416, March.
    17. Eric J. Heikkila & Ying Xu, 2022. "Polycentric Urbanization and Sustainable Development in China," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 13(S1), pages 69-78, April.
    18. Hang Ren & Wei Guo & Zhenke Zhang & Leonard Musyoka Kisovi & Priyanko Das, 2020. "Population Density and Spatial Patterns of Informal Settlements in Nairobi, Kenya," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-14, September.
    19. Konstantin Axenov & Alisa Timoshina & Alexandra Zemlyanova, 2020. "Commercial redevelopment of industrial and residential periphery of Russian metropolis: St. Petersburg, 1989–2017," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(4), pages 705-722, August.
    20. Jayson Danton & Alexander Himbert, 2017. "Residential Vertical Rent Gradients in the City," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'économie 17.11, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, Département d’économie.
    21. Jordan Rappaport, 2014. "Monocentric city redux," Research Working Paper RWP 14-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • N7 - Economic History - - Economic History: Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, and Other Services
    • N9 - Economic History - - Regional and Urban History
    • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • R33 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Nonagricultural and Nonresidential Real Estate Markets

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