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The Turning Black Tide: Energy Prices and the Canadian Dollar

Author

Listed:
  • Ramzi Issa
  • Robert Lafrance
  • John Murray
Abstract
The authors revisit the relationship between energy prices and the Canadian dollar in the Amano and van Norden (1995) equation, which shows a negative relationship such that higher real energy prices lead to a depreciation of the Canadian dollar. Based on structural break tests, the authors find a break point in the sign of this relationship, which changes from negative to positive in the early 1990s. The break in the effect between energy prices and the Canadian dollar is consistent with major changes in energy-related cross-border trade and in Canada's energy policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Ramzi Issa & Robert Lafrance & John Murray, 2006. "The Turning Black Tide: Energy Prices and the Canadian Dollar," Staff Working Papers 06-29, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:06-29
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Haiqiang & Choi, Paul Moon Sub & Hong, Yongmiao, 2013. "How smooth is price discovery? Evidence from cross-listed stock trading," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 668-699.
    2. Leo Michelis & Cathy Ning, 2010. "The dependence structure between the Canadian stock market and the USD/CAD exchange rate: a copula approach," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 43(3), pages 1016-1039, August.
    3. Beine, Michel & Bos, Charles S. & Coulombe, Serge, 2012. "Does the Canadian economy suffer from Dutch disease?," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 468-492.
    4. Hem C. Basnet & Puneet Vatsa & Subhash Sharma, 2014. "Common Trends and Common Cycles in Oil Price and Real Exchange Rate," Global Economy Journal (GEJ), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 14(2), pages 249-263, June.
    5. Bailliu, Jeannine & Dib, Ali & Kano, Takashi & Schembri, Lawrence, 2014. "Multilateral adjustment, regime switching and real exchange rate dynamics," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 68-87.
    6. Fakhri Hasanov & Jeyhun Mikayilov & Cihan Bulut & Elchin Suleymanov & Fuzuli Aliyev, 2017. "The Role of Oil Prices in Exchange Rate Movements: The CIS Oil Exporters," Economies, MDPI, vol. 5(2), pages 1-18, April.
    7. Mariam CAMARERO & Juan Carlos CUESTAS & Javier ORDÓÑEZ, 2008. "The Role Of Commodity Terms Of Trade In The Determination Of The Real Exchange Rates Of The Mediterranean Countries," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 46(2), pages 188-205, June.
    8. Fakhri Hasanov, 2010. "The Impact of Real Oil Price on Real Effective Exchange Rate: The Case of Azerbaijan," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1041, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    9. Rebeca Jiménez‐Rodríguez & Amalia Morales‐Zumaquero, 2020. "Impact of commodity prices on exchange rates in commodity‐exporting countries," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(7), pages 1868-1906, July.
    10. repec:wsr:wpaper:y:2011:i:072 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Olivier Gervais & Marc-André Gosselin, 2014. "Analyzing and Forecasting the Canadian Economy through the LENS Model," Technical Reports 102, Bank of Canada.
    12. Hasanov, Fakhri, 2009. "Analyzing price level in a booming economy: the case of Azerbaijan," MPRA Paper 29555, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. repec:zbw:bofitp:2007_008 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Magali Dauvin, 2013. "Energy prices and the real exchange rate of commodity-exporting countries," EconomiX Working Papers 2013-33, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    15. Andreas Benedictow & Daniel Fjærtoft & Ole Løfsnæs, 2010. "Oil dependency of the Russian economy: an econometric analysis," Discussion Papers 617, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    16. Salisu, Afees A. & Mobolaji, Hakeem, 2013. "Modeling returns and volatility transmission between oil price and US–Nigeria exchange rate," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 169-176.
    17. Philippe Bergevin & Colin Busby, 2010. "The Loonie’s Flirtation with Parity: Prospects and Policy Implications," e-briefs 101, C.D. Howe Institute.
    18. Korhonen, Iikka & Juurikkala, Tuuli, 2007. "Equilibrium exchange rates in oil-dependent countries," BOFIT Discussion Papers 8/2007, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    19. Iikka Korhonen & Tuuli Juurikkala, 2009. "Equilibrium exchange rates in oil-exporting countries," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 33(1), pages 71-79, January.
    20. Mr. Vladimir Klyuev, 2008. "Real Implications of Financial Linkages Between Canada and the United States," IMF Working Papers 2008/023, International Monetary Fund.
    21. Benedictow, Andreas & Fjærtoft, Daniel & Løfsnæs, Ole, 2013. "Oil dependency of the Russian economy: An econometric analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 400-428.
    22. Korhonen, Iikka & Juurikkala, Tuuli, 2007. "Equilibrium exchange rates in oil-dependent countries," BOFIT Discussion Papers 8/2007, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    23. Maxym Chaban, 2010. "Cointegration analysis with structural breaks and deterministic trends: an application to the Canadian dollar," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(23), pages 3023-3037.
    24. Riman, Hodo B. & Akpan, Emmanuel S. & Offiong, Amenawo I, 2013. "Asymetric Effect of Oil Price Shocks on Exchange Rate Volatility and Domestic Investment in Nigeria," MPRA Paper 53282, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 21 Aug 2013.
    25. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Javier Ordoñez & Mariam Camarero, 2007. "The Role Of Commodity Terms Of Trade In Determining The Real Exchange Rates Of Mediterranean Countries," Working Papers. Serie AD 2007-15, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rates; Econometric and statistical methods;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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