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Monetary Policy Spillover to Small Open Economies: Is the Transmission Different under Low Interest Rate

Author

Listed:
  • Jin Cao
  • Valeriya Dinger
  • Tomás Gómez
  • Zuzana Gric
  • Martin Hondula
  • Alejandro Jara
  • Ragnar Juelsrud
  • Karolis Liaudinskas
  • Simona Malovaná
  • Yaz Terajima
Abstract
We explore the impact of low and negative monetary policy rates in core world economies on bank lending in four small open economies – Canada, Chile, the Czech Republic and Norway – using confidential bank-level data. Our results show that the impact on lending in these small open economies depends on the interest rate level in the core. When interest rates are high, monetary policy cuts in core economies can reduce credit supply in small open economies. In contrast, when interest rates in core economies are low, further expansionary monetary policy increases lending in small open economies, consistent with an international bank lending channel. These results have important policy implications, suggesting that central banks in small open economies should watch for the impact of potential regime switches in core economies’ monetary policy when rates shift to and from the very low end of the distribution.

Suggested Citation

  • Jin Cao & Valeriya Dinger & Tomás Gómez & Zuzana Gric & Martin Hondula & Alejandro Jara & Ragnar Juelsrud & Karolis Liaudinskas & Simona Malovaná & Yaz Terajima, 2021. "Monetary Policy Spillover to Small Open Economies: Is the Transmission Different under Low Interest Rate," Working Paper 2021/12, Norges Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:bno:worpap:2021_12
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    2. Nadezhda Ivanova & Ekaterina Petreneva & Konstantin Styrin & Yulia Ushakova, 2023. "The Effect of US Monetary Policy on the Activities of Russian Banks in the Low Interest Rate Environment," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps114, Bank of Russia.
    3. Bruno Feunou & Zabi Tarshi, 2024. "Deriving Longer-Term Inflation Expectations and Inflation Risk Premium Measures for Canada," Discussion Papers 2024-09, Bank of Canada.
    4. Josef Bajzik & Jan Janku & Simona Malovana & Klara Moravcova & Ngoc Anh Ngo, 2023. "Monetary Policy Has a Long-Lasting Impact on Credit: Evidence from 91 VAR Studies," Working Papers 2023/19, Czech National Bank.
    5. Malovaná, Simona & Hodula, Martin & Gric, Zuzana & Bajzík, Josef, 2023. "Macroprudential policy in central banks: Integrated or separate? Survey among academics and central bankers," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Low and negative interest rate environment (LNIRE); Cross-border monetary policy spillover; International bank lending channel; Portfolio channel;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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