Nothing Special   »   [go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2004.01504.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Machine Learning Algorithms for Financial Asset Price Forecasting

Author

Listed:
  • Philip Ndikum
Abstract
This research paper explores the performance of Machine Learning (ML) algorithms and techniques that can be used for financial asset price forecasting. The prediction and forecasting of asset prices and returns remains one of the most challenging and exciting problems for quantitative finance and practitioners alike. The massive increase in data generated and captured in recent years presents an opportunity to leverage Machine Learning algorithms. This study directly compares and contrasts state-of-the-art implementations of modern Machine Learning algorithms on high performance computing (HPC) infrastructures versus the traditional and highly popular Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) on U.S equities data. The implemented Machine Learning models - trained on time series data for an entire stock universe (in addition to exogenous macroeconomic variables) significantly outperform the CAPM on out-of-sample (OOS) test data.

Suggested Citation

  • Philip Ndikum, 2020. "Machine Learning Algorithms for Financial Asset Price Forecasting," Papers 2004.01504, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2004.01504
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.01504
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Luyang Chen & Markus Pelger & Jason Zhu, 2024. "Deep Learning in Asset Pricing," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 70(2), pages 714-750, February.
    2. Stephen A. Ross, 2013. "The Arbitrage Theory of Capital Asset Pricing," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 1, pages 11-30, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Butaru, Florentin & Chen, Qingqing & Clark, Brian & Das, Sanmay & Lo, Andrew W. & Siddique, Akhtar, 2016. "Risk and risk management in the credit card industry," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 218-239.
    4. André Farber & Roland Gillet & Ariane Szafarz, 2005. "A general formula for the WACC," Working Papers CEB 05-012.RS, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    5. Chakraborty, Chiranjit & Joseph, Andreas, 2017. "Machine learning at central banks," Bank of England working papers 674, Bank of England.
    6. Andrew Ang & Allan Timmermann, 2012. "Regime Changes and Financial Markets," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 4(1), pages 313-337, October.
    7. Philippe Goulet Coulombe & Maxime Leroux & Dalibor Stevanovic & Stéphane Surprenant, 2022. "How is machine learning useful for macroeconomic forecasting?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(5), pages 920-964, August.
    8. Brennan, M. J., 1971. "Capital Market Equilibrium with Divergent Borrowing and Lending Rates," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(5), pages 1197-1205, December.
    9. Ian Cooper, 1996. "Arithmetic versus geometric mean estimators: Setting discount rates for capital budgeting," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 2(2), pages 157-167, July.
    10. Ioannis Kyriakou & Parastoo Mousavi & Jens Perch Nielsen & Michael Scholz, 2019. "Machine Learning for Forecasting Excess Stock Returns The Five-Year-View," Graz Economics Papers 2019-06, University of Graz, Department of Economics.
    11. Johannes Ruf & Weiguan Wang, 2019. "Neural networks for option pricing and hedging: a literature review," Papers 1911.05620, arXiv.org, revised May 2020.
    12. Jan De Spiegeleer & Dilip B. Madan & Sofie Reyners & Wim Schoutens, 2018. "Machine learning for quantitative finance: fast derivative pricing, hedging and fitting," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(10), pages 1635-1643, October.
    13. William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, September.
    14. Lukas Ryll & Sebastian Seidens, 2019. "Evaluating the Performance of Machine Learning Algorithms in Financial Market Forecasting: A Comprehensive Survey," Papers 1906.07786, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2019.
    15. Philip Brown & Terry Walter, 2013. "The CAPM : Theoretical Validity, Empirical Intractability and Practical Applications," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 49, pages 44-50, January.
    16. Pae, Yuntaek & Sabbaghi, Navid, 2015. "Equally weighted portfolios vs value weighted portfolios: Reasons for differing betas," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 203-207.
    17. Justin Sirignano & Rama Cont, 2019. "Universal features of price formation in financial markets: perspectives from deep learning," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(9), pages 1449-1459, September.
    18. Sandip Mukherji, 2011. "The Capital Asset Pricing Model’S Risk-Free Rate," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 5(2), pages 75-83.
    19. Graham Partington, 2013. "Death Where is Thy Sting? A Response to D empsey's Despatching of the CAPM," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 49, pages 69-72, January.
    20. Nielsen, Lars Tyge, 1990. "Existence of equilibrium in CAPM," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 223-231, October.
    21. Mike Dempsey, 2013. "The Capital Asset Pricing Model ( CAPM ): The History of a Failed Revolutionary Idea in Finance?," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 49, pages 7-23, January.
    22. Igor Mozetič & Luis Torgo & Vitor Cerqueira & Jasmina Smailović, 2018. "How to evaluate sentiment classifiers for Twitter time-ordered data?," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(3), pages 1-20, March.
    23. Ravi Jagannathan & Zhenyu Wang, 1993. "The CAPM is alive and well," Staff Report 165, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    24. Qiong Wu & Christopher G. Brinton & Zheng Zhang & Andrea Pizzoferrato & Zhenming Liu & Mihai Cucuringu, 2019. "Equity2Vec: End-to-end Deep Learning Framework for Cross-sectional Asset Pricing," Papers 1909.04497, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2021.
    25. Eugene F. Fama & Kenneth R. French, 2004. "The Capital Asset Pricing Model: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(3), pages 25-46, Summer.
    26. Graham, John R. & Harvey, Campbell R., 2001. "The theory and practice of corporate finance: evidence from the field," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2-3), pages 187-243, May.
    27. Friend, Irwin & Blume, Marshall E, 1970. "Measurement of Portfolio Performance Under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 60(4), pages 561-575, September.
    28. Travis J. Berge, 2015. "Predicting Recessions with Leading Indicators: Model Averaging and Selection over the Business Cycle," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(6), pages 455-471, September.
    29. Heston, Steven L. & Sadka, Ronnie, 2010. "Seasonality in the Cross Section of Stock Returns: The International Evidence," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(5), pages 1133-1160, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zongwu Cai & Pixiong Chen, 2024. "Online Investor Sentiment via Machine Learning," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(20), pages 1-14, October.
    2. Xinyue Cui & Zhaoyu Xu & Yue Zhou, 2020. "Using Machine Learning to Forecast Future Earnings," Papers 2005.13995, arXiv.org.
    3. Jiaju Miao & Pawel Polak, 2023. "Online Ensemble of Models for Optimal Predictive Performance with Applications to Sector Rotation Strategy," Papers 2304.09947, arXiv.org.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Zakaria, Muhammad & Raza, Naveed, 2014. "Sensitivity Analysis of CAPM Estimates: Data Frequency and Time Frame," MPRA Paper 60110, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Saniya Khalid & Saba Ameer, 2016. "CAPM estimates: Can data frequency and time period lend a hand?," International Journal of Financial Engineering (IJFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 3(02), pages 1-12, June.
    3. Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad, 2015. "Multiscale Systematic Risk: Empirical Evidence from Pakistan," International Journal of Economics and Empirical Research (IJEER), The Economics and Social Development Organization (TESDO), vol. 3(12), pages 605-615, December.
    4. Adam Zaremba & Jacob Koby Shemer, 2018. "Price-Based Investment Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-91530-2, June.
    5. Peter C. Dawson, 2015. "The capital asset pricing model in economic perspective," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(6), pages 569-598, February.
    6. Babak Jafarizadeh & Reidar B. Bratvold, 2019. "Exploration economics: taking opportunities and the risk of double-counting risk," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 32(3), pages 323-335, November.
    7. Sonntag, Dominik, 2018. "Die Theorie der fairen geometrischen Rendite [The Theory of Fair Geometric Returns]," MPRA Paper 87082, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Gregory, Alan & Hua, Shan & Tharyan, Rajesh, 2018. "In search of beta," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 425-441.
    9. Misund, Bard & Mohn, Klaus, 2014. "Exploration Risk in Oil & Gas Shareholder Returns," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2014/4, University of Stavanger.
    10. Andrei Salem Gonçalves & Robert Aldo Iquiapaza & Aureliano Angel Bressan, 2012. "Latent Fundamentals Arbitrage with a Mixed Effects Factor Model," Brazilian Review of Finance, Brazilian Society of Finance, vol. 10(3), pages 317-335.
    11. Moshe Levy, 2012. "On the Spurious Correlation Between Sample Betas and Mean Returns," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(4), pages 341-360, September.
    12. Ali Habibnia & Esfandiar Maasoumi, 2021. "Forecasting in Big Data Environments: An Adaptable and Automated Shrinkage Estimation of Neural Networks (AAShNet)," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 19(1), pages 363-381, December.
    13. Javid, Attiya Yasmin & Ahmad, Eatzaz, 2008. "Testing multifactor capital asset pricing model in case of Pakistani market," MPRA Paper 37341, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Joel M. Vanden, 2021. "Equilibrium asset pricing and the cross section of expected returns," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 153-186, June.
    15. Jan A. Kempkes & Francesco Suprano & Andreas Wömpener, 2023. "An empirical evaluation of dynamic approaches for estimating firms’ expected cost of equity capital," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 58(4), pages 859-886, November.
    16. Maria PASCU-NEDELCU, 2011. "Merton Model For Assessing The Cost Of Capital, Mathematical Amount But Not Also Economic Amount Of Capm And Apt Models," Journal of Doctoral Research in Economics, The Bucharest University of Economic Studies, vol. 3(1), pages 47-61, March.
    17. Cynthia M. Gong & Di Luo & Huainan Zhao, 2021. "Liquidity risk and the beta premium," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 44(4), pages 789-814, December.
    18. Ditimi Amassoma & O. Adeleke, 2018. "Testing for the Causality between Interest Rate and Stock Market Performance in Nigeria," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 3, pages 109-124.
    19. Arouri, Mohamed El Hedi & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Pukthuanthong, Kuntara, 2012. "An international CAPM for partially integrated markets: Theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 2473-2493.
    20. Wayne E. Ferson & Ravi Jagannathan, 1996. "Econometric evaluation of asset pricing models," Staff Report 206, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2004.01504. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.