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Relation between regional uncertainty spillovers in the global banking system

Author

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  • Sachapon Tungsong
  • Fabio Caccioli
  • Tomaso Aste
Abstract
We report on time-varying network connectedness within three banking systems: North America, the EU, and ASEAN. The original method by Diebold and Yilmaz is improved by using exponentially weighted daily returns and ridge regularization on vector autoregression (VAR) and forecast error variance decomposition (FEVD). We compute the total network connectedness for each of the three banking systems, which quantifies regional uncertainty. Results over rolling windows of 300 days during the period between 2005 and 2015 reveal changing uncertainty patterns which are similar across regions, with common peaks associated with identifiable exogenous events. Lead-lag relationships among changes of total network connectedness of the three systems, quantified by transfer entropy, reveal that uncertainties in the three regional systems are significantly causally related, with the North American system having the largest influence on EU and ASEAN.

Suggested Citation

  • Sachapon Tungsong & Fabio Caccioli & Tomaso Aste, 2017. "Relation between regional uncertainty spillovers in the global banking system," Papers 1702.05944, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1702.05944
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    1. Huynh, Toan Luu Duc & Nasir, Muhammad Ali & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Nguyen, Thong Trung, 2020. "“Small things matter most”: The spillover effects in the cryptocurrency market and gold as a silver bullet," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    2. Tomaso Aste, 2021. "Stress Testing and Systemic Risk Measures Using Elliptical Conditional Multivariate Probabilities," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-17, May.
    3. Tomaso Aste, 2019. "Cryptocurrency market structure: connecting emotions and economics," Digital Finance, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 5-21, November.
    4. Tomaso Aste, 2020. "Stress testing and systemic risk measures using multivariate conditional probability," Papers 2004.06420, arXiv.org, revised May 2021.

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