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Semimartingale detection and goodness-of-fit tests

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  • Adam D. Bull
Abstract
In quantitative finance, we often fit a parametric semimartingale model to asset prices. To ensure our model is correct, we must then perform goodness-of-fit tests. In this paper, we give a new goodness-of-fit test for volatility-like processes, which is easily applied to a variety of semimartingale models. In each case, we reduce the problem to the detection of a semimartingale observed under noise. In this setting, we then describe a wavelet-thresholding test, which obtains adaptive and near-optimal detection rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Adam D. Bull, 2015. "Semimartingale detection and goodness-of-fit tests," Papers 1506.00088, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2016.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1506.00088
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Wenceslao González-Manteiga & Rosa Crujeiras, 2013. "Rejoinder on: An updated review of Goodness-of-Fit tests for regression models," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 22(3), pages 442-447, September.
    2. Ole E. Barndorff‐Nielsen & Neil Shephard, 2002. "Econometric analysis of realized volatility and its use in estimating stochastic volatility models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 64(2), pages 253-280, May.
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    4. Wenceslao González-Manteiga & Rosa Crujeiras, 2013. "An updated review of Goodness-of-Fit tests for regression models," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 22(3), pages 361-411, September.
    5. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Diebold, Francis X. & Ebens, Heiko, 2001. "The distribution of realized stock return volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 43-76, July.
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    7. Holger Dette & Mark Podolskij & Mathias Vetter, 2006. "Estimation of Integrated Volatility in Continuous‐Time Financial Models with Applications to Goodness‐of‐Fit Testing," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 33(2), pages 259-278, June.
    8. Dette, Holger & Podolskij, Mark, 2008. "Testing the parametric form of the volatility in continuous time diffusion models--a stochastic process approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 143(1), pages 56-73, March.
    9. Mark Podolskij & Daniel Ziggel, 2007. "A Range-Based Test for the Parametric Form of the Volatility in Diffusion Models," CREATES Research Papers 2007-26, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
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