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Agricultural Adaptation to a Changing Climate: Economic and Environmental Implications Vary by U.S. Region

Author

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  • Malcolm, Scott A.
  • Marshall, Elizabeth P.
  • Aillery, Marcel P.
  • Heisey, Paul W.
  • Livingston, Michael J.
  • Day-Rubenstein, Kelly A.
Abstract
Global climate models predict increases over time in average temperature worldwide, with significant impacts on local patterns of temperature and precipitation. The extent to which such changes present a risk to food supplies, farmer livelihoods, and rural communities depends in part on the direction, magnitude, and rate of such changes, but equally importantly on the ability of the agricultural sector to adapt to changing patterns of yield and productivity, production cost, and resource availability. Study findings suggest that, while impacts are highly sensitive to uncertain climate projections, farmers have considerable fl exibility to adapt to changes in local weather, resource conditions, and price signals by adjusting crops, rotations, and production practices. Such adaptation, using existing crop production technologies, can partially mitigate the impacts of climate change on national agricultural markets. Adaptive redistribution of production, however, may have signifi cant implications for both regional land use and environmental quality.

Suggested Citation

  • Malcolm, Scott A. & Marshall, Elizabeth P. & Aillery, Marcel P. & Heisey, Paul W. & Livingston, Michael J. & Day-Rubenstein, Kelly A., 2012. "Agricultural Adaptation to a Changing Climate: Economic and Environmental Implications Vary by U.S. Region," Economic Research Report 127734, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:uersrr:127734
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.127734
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Key, Nigel D. & Sneeringer, Stacy & Marquardt, David, 2014. "Climate Change, Heat Stress, and U.S. Dairy Production," Economic Research Report 186731, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    2. Ditmer, Mark A. & Noyce, Karen V. & Fieberg, John R. & Garshelis, David L., 2018. "Delineating the ecological and geographic edge of an opportunist: The American black bear exploiting an agricultural landscape," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 387(C), pages 205-219.
    3. Takle, Eugene S. & Gustafson, David & Beachy, Roger & Neslon, Gerald C. & Mason-D'Croz, Daniel & Palazzo, Amanda, 2013. "US food security and climate change: Agricultural futures," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 7, pages 1-41.
    4. J. Carlton & Amber Mase & Cody Knutson & Maria Lemos & Tonya Haigh & Dennis Todey & Linda Prokopy, 2016. "The effects of extreme drought on climate change beliefs, risk perceptions, and adaptation attitudes," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 135(2), pages 211-226, March.
    5. Michael Keane & Timothy Neal, 2020. "Climate change and U.S. agriculture: Accounting for multidimensional slope heterogeneity in panel data," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 11(4), pages 1391-1429, November.
    6. Elizabeth Marshall, & Marcel Aillery, & Scott Malcolm, & Ryan Williams,, 2015. "Climate Change, Water Scarcity, and Adaptation in the U.S. Fieldcrop Sector," Economic Research Report 262203, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    7. Tsvetan Tsvetanov & Lingqiao Qi & Deep Mukherjee & Farhed Shah & Boris Bravo-Ureta, 2016. "Climate Change And Land Use In Southeastern U.S.: Did The “Dumb Farmer” Get It Wrong?," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 7(03), pages 1-35, August.
    8. Lambert, David K., 2014. "Historical Impacts of Precipitation and Temperature on Farm Production in Kansas," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 46(4), pages 1-17, November.
    9. J. Stuart Carlton & Amber S. Mase & Cody L. Knutson & Maria Carmen Lemos & Tonya Haigh & Dennis P. Todey & Linda S. Prokopy, 2016. "The effects of extreme drought on climate change beliefs, risk perceptions, and adaptation attitudes," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 135(2), pages 211-226, March.
    10. Njuki, E. & Bravo-Ureta, B., 2018. "Accounting for the Impacts of Changing Configurations in Temperature and Precipitation on U.S. Agricultural Productivity," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 277140, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    11. Eric Njuki & Boris E. Bravo-Ureta & Christopher J. O’Donnell, 2019. "Decomposing agricultural productivity growth using a random-parameters stochastic production frontier," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 839-860, September.
    12. Sun Ling Wang & Eldon Ball & Richard Nehring & Ryan Williams & Truong Chau, 2018. "Impacts of Climate Change and Extreme Weather on US Agricultural Productivity: Evidence and Projection," NBER Chapters, in: Agricultural Productivity and Producer Behavior, pages 41-75, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Heisey, Paul & Day-Rubenstein, Kelly, 2015. "Using Crop Genetic Resources To Help Agriculture Adapt to Climate Change: Economics and Policy," Economic Information Bulletin 202351, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    14. Marshall, Elizabeth & Aillery, Marcel & Ribaudo, Marc & Key, Nigel & Sneeringer, Stacy & Hansen, LeRoy & Malcolm, Scott & Riddle, Anne, 2018. "Reducing Nutrient Losses From Cropland in the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin: Cost Efficiency and Regional Distribution," Economic Research Report 277567, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    15. Awudu Abdulai, 2018. "Simon Brand Memorial Address," Agrekon, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(1), pages 28-39, January.
    16. Eric Njuki & Boris E. Bravo-Ureta, 2019. "Examining irrigation productivity in U.S. agriculture using a single-factor approach," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 51(2), pages 125-136, June.
    17. Eric Njuki & Boris E Bravo-Ureta & Christopher J O’Donnell, 2018. "A new look at the decomposition of agricultural productivity growth incorporating weather effects," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(2), pages 1-21, February.
    18. Njuki, Eric & Bravo-Ureta, Boris E., 2016. "Measuring agricultural water productivity using a partial factor productivity approach," 2016 Fifth International Conference, September 23-26, 2016, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia 246948, African Association of Agricultural Economists (AAAE).
    19. Timothy Neal & Michael Keane, 2020. "Climate Change and U.S. Agriculture: Accounting for Multi-dimensional Slope Heterogeneity in Production Functions," Discussion Papers 2018-08a, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    20. Wang, Ruoyu & Bowling, Laura C. & Cherkauer, Keith A. & Cibin, Raj & Her, Younggu & Chaubey, Indrajeet, 2017. "Biophysical and hydrological effects of future climate change including trends in CO2, in the St. Joseph River watershed, Eastern Corn Belt," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 180(PB), pages 280-296.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries; Environmental Economics and Policy; Farm Management;
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