Nothing Special   »   [go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/saea15/196684.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Climate Change Adaptation via U.S. Land Use Transitions: A Spatial Econometric Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Cho, Sung Ju
  • McCarl, Bruce A.
  • Wu, Ximing
Abstract
Climate change, coupled with biofuels development and other factors may well be changing US land usage patterns. We use a spatial econometric approach to estimate the drivers of US land use transitions in recent years. We consider transitions between six major land uses: agricultural land, forest, grassland, water, urban, and other uses. To examine drivers, we use a two-step linearized, spatial, multinomial logit model and estimate land use transition probabilities. Our results indicate that climate change is a driver of land use change and that movements to and from agricultural land and grassland exhibit opposite responses with climate change portending a movement out of cropland into grassland. These results indicate that adaptation to climate change through land usage change is ongoing but with spatial dependence.

Suggested Citation

  • Cho, Sung Ju & McCarl, Bruce A. & Wu, Ximing, 2015. "Climate Change Adaptation via U.S. Land Use Transitions: A Spatial Econometric Analysis," 2015 Annual Meeting, January 31-February 3, 2015, Atlanta, Georgia 196684, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:saea15:196684
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.196684
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/196684/files/CHO_SAEA2015_submit0112.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.196684?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Man Li & JunJie Wu & Xiangzheng Deng, 2013. "Identifying Drivers of Land Use Change in China: A Spatial Multinomial Logit Model Analysis," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 89(4), pages 632-654.
    2. José M. R. Murteira & Joaquim J. S. Ramalho, 2016. "Regression Analysis of Multivariate Fractional Data," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(4), pages 515-552, April.
    3. Lucas W. Davis & Lutz Kilian, 2011. "Estimating the effect of a gasoline tax on carbon emissions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(7), pages 1187-1214, November.
    4. Junjie Wu & B. Wade Brorsen, 1995. "The Impact of Government Programs and Land Characteristics on Cropping Patterns," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 43(1), pages 87-104, March.
    5. Papke, Leslie E & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M, 1996. "Econometric Methods for Fractional Response Variables with an Application to 401(K) Plan Participation Rates," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 619-632, Nov.-Dec..
    6. Hertel, Thomas W., 2010. "The Global Supply and Demand for Agricultural Land in 2050: A Perfect Storm in the Making?," 2010 Annual Meeting, July 25-27, 2010, Denver, Colorado 92639, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    7. R. Kelley Pace & James P. LeSage, 2010. "Omitted Variable Biases of OLS and Spatial Lag Models," Advances in Spatial Science, in: Antonio Páez & Julie Gallo & Ron N. Buliung & Sandy Dall'erba (ed.), Progress in Spatial Analysis, pages 17-28, Springer.
    8. Klier, Thomas & McMillen, Daniel P, 2008. "Clustering of Auto Supplier Plants in the United States," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 26, pages 460-471.
    9. Won Kim, Chong & Phipps, Tim T. & Anselin, Luc, 2003. "Measuring the benefits of air quality improvement: a spatial hedonic approach," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 24-39, January.
    10. Seo, S. Niggol & Mendelsohn, Robert, 2008. "An analysis of crop choice: Adapting to climate change in South American farms," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 109-116, August.
    11. James P. Lesage, 2008. "An Introduction to Spatial Econometrics," Revue d'économie industrielle, De Boeck Université, vol. 0(3), pages 19-44.
    12. Ian W. Hardie & Peter J. Parks, 1997. "Land Use with Heterogeneous Land Quality: An Application of an Area Base Model," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 79(2), pages 299-310.
    13. Bruce A. McCarl & Xavier Villavicencio & Ximing Wu, 2008. "Climate Change and Future Analysis: Is Stationarity Dying?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1241-1247.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cho, Sung Ju & McCarl, Bruce A. & Wu, Ximing, 2014. "Climate Change Adaptation and Shifts in Land Use for Major Crops in the U.S," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 170015, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    2. Sung Ju Cho & Bruce McCarl, 2021. "Major United States Land Use as Influenced by an Altering Climate: A Spatial Econometric Approach," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-16, May.
    3. Kan, Iddo & Reznik, Ami & Kaminski, Jonathan & Kimhi, Ayal, 2023. "The impacts of climate change on cropland allocation, crop production, output prices and social welfare in Israel: A structural econometric framework," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    4. Jean-Sauveur Ay & Raja Chakir & Julie Le Gallo, 2014. "The effects of scale, space and time on the predictive accuracy of land use models," Working Papers 2014/02, INRA, Economie Publique.
    5. Man Li & JunJie Wu & Xiangzheng Deng, 2013. "Identifying Drivers of Land Use Change in China: A Spatial Multinomial Logit Model Analysis," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 89(4), pages 632-654.
    6. Kimhi, A., 2018. "Integrated Micro-Macro Structural Econometric Framework for Assessing Climate-Change Impacts on Agricultural Production and Food Markets," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 276972, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    7. Trinh Nguyen Chau & Frank Scrimgeour, 2023. "Will climate change jeopardize the Vietnamese target of maintaining farmland for food security? A fractional multinomial logit analysis of land use choice," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 54(4), pages 570-587, July.
    8. CARPENTIER, Alain & GOHIN, Alexandre & SCKOKAI, Paolo & THOMAS, Alban, 2015. "Economic modelling of agricultural production: past advances and new challenges," Review of Agricultural and Environmental Studies - Revue d'Etudes en Agriculture et Environnement (RAEStud), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), vol. 96(1), March.
    9. Harald Oberhofer & Michael Pfaffermayr, 2014. "Two-Part Models for Fractional Responses Defined as Ratios of Integers," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 2(3), pages 1-22, September.
    10. Martinetti, Davide & Geniaux, Ghislain, 2017. "Approximate likelihood estimation of spatial probit models," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 30-45.
    11. Wang, Teng & Yi, Fujin & Liu, Huilin & Wu, Ximing & Zhong, Funing, 2021. "Can Agricultural Mechanization Have a Mitigation Effect on China's Yield Variability?," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 315098, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    12. Jacob Fiksel & Scott Zeger & Abhirup Datta, 2022. "A transformation‐free linear regression for compositional outcomes and predictors," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 78(3), pages 974-987, September.
    13. Wu, JunJie & Adams, Richard M., 2002. "Micro Versus Macro Acreage Response Models: Does Site-Specific Information Matter?," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 27(1), pages 1-21, July.
    14. Dzanku, Fred M., 2015. "Household-specific food price differentials and high-value crop production in rural Ghana," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 73-82.
    15. Kan, Iddo & Kimhi, Ayal & Kaminski, Jonathan, 2015. "Climate-Change Impacts on Agriculture and Food Markets: Combining a Micro-Level Structural Land-Use Model and a Market-Level Equilibrium Model," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 205128, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    16. Monastyrenko, Evgenii, 2017. "Eco-efficiency outcomes of mergers and acquisitions in the European electricity industry," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 258-277.
    17. Lubowski, Ruben N. & Bucholtz, Shawn & Claassen, Roger & Roberts, Michael J. & Cooper, Joseph C. & Gueorguieva, Anna & Johansson, Robert C., 2006. "Environmental Effects Of Agricultural Land-Use Change: The Role Of Economics And Policy," Economic Research Report 33591, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    18. Michael Brady & Elena Irwin, 2011. "Accounting for Spatial Effects in Economic Models of Land Use: Recent Developments and Challenges Ahead," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 48(3), pages 487-509, March.
    19. Si, Chengyu & Nadolnyak, Denis, 2018. "The Effects of Government Payments on Agricultural Land Use," 2018 Annual Meeting, February 2-6, 2018, Jacksonville, Florida 266628, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    20. Pokhrel, Bijay & Krishna, Paudel & Eduardo, Segarra, 2016. "Factors Affecting the Choice, Intensity, and Allocation of Irrigation Technologies by U.S. Cotton Farmers," 2016 Annual Meeting, February 6-9, 2016, San Antonio, Texas 230199, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Environmental Economics and Policy; Land Economics/Use;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:saea15:196684. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/saeaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.