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The Linear Regression Model With Autocorrelated Errors: Just Say No To Error Autocorrelation

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  • McGuirk, Anya M.
  • Spanos, Aris
Abstract
This paper focuses on the practice of serial correlation correcting of the Linear Regression Model (LRM) by modeling the error. Simple Monte Carlo experiments are used to demonstrate the following points regarding this practice. First, the common factor restrictions implicitly imposed on the temporal structure of yt and xt appear to be completely unreasonable for any real world application. Second, when one compares the Autocorrelation-Corrected LRM (ACLRM) model estimates with estimates from the (unrestricted) Dynamic Linear Regression Model (DLRM) encompassing the ACLRM there is no significant gain in efficiency! Third, as expected, when the common factor restrictions do not hold the LRM model gives poor estimates of the true parameters and estimation of the ACLRM simply gives rise to different misleading results! On the other hand, estimates from the DLRM and the corresponding VAR model are very reliable. Fourth, the power of the usual Durbin Watson test (DW) of autocorrelation is much higher when the common factor restrictions do hold than when they do not. But, a more general test of autocorrelation is shown to perform almost as well as the DW when the common factor restrictions do hold and significantly better than the DW when the restrictions do not hold. Fifth, we demonstrate how simple it is to, at least, test the common factor restrictions imposed and we illustrate how powerful this test can be.

Suggested Citation

  • McGuirk, Anya M. & Spanos, Aris, 2002. "The Linear Regression Model With Autocorrelated Errors: Just Say No To Error Autocorrelation," 2002 Annual meeting, July 28-31, Long Beach, CA 19905, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea02:19905
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.19905
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. John B. Davis & D. W. Hands & Uskali Mäki (ed.), 1998. "The Handbook of Economic Methodology," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 741.
    2. Hendry, David F & Mizon, Grayham E, 1978. "Serial Correlation as a Convenient Simplification, not a Nuisance: A Comment on a Study of the Demand for Money by the Bank of England," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 88(351), pages 549-563, September.
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    5. Spanos, Aris & McGuirk, Anya, 2002. "The problem of near-multicollinearity revisited: erratic vs systematic volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(2), pages 365-393, June.
    6. Hoover, Kevin D, 1988. "On the Pitfalls of Untested Common-Factor Restrictions: The Case of the Inverted Fisher Hypothesis," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 50(2), pages 125-138, May.
    7. Sargan, J D, 1980. "Some Tests of Dynamic Specification for a Single Equation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 879-897, May.
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    9. Spanos,Aris, 1986. "Statistical Foundations of Econometric Modelling," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521269124, October.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Sriananthakumar, Sivagowry, 2013. "Testing linear regression model with AR(1) errors against a first-order dynamic linear regression model with white noise errors: A point optimal testing approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 126-136.
    3. Nivens, Heather D. & Kastens, Terry L. & Dhuyvetter, Kevin C. & Featherstone, Allen M., 2002. "Using Satellite Imagery In Predicting Kansas Farmland Values," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 27(2), pages 1-17, December.
    4. Simone Tonini & Francesca Chiaromonte & Alessandro Giovannelli, 2022. "On the impact of serial dependence on penalized regression methods," LEM Papers Series 2022/21, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.

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