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Inference on Optimal Treatment Assignments

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Abstract
We consider inference on optimal treatment assignments. Our methods are the first to allow for inference on the treatment assignment rule that would be optimal given knowledge of the population treatment effect in a general setting. The procedure uses multiple hypothesis testing methods to determine a subset of the population for which assignment to treatment can be determined to be optimal after conditioning on all available information, with a prespecified level of confidence. A monte carlo study confirms that the procedure has good small sample behavior. We apply the method to the Mexican conditional cash transfer program Progresa. We demonstrate how the method can be used to design efficient welfare programs by selecting the right beneficiaries and statistically quantifying how strong the evidence is in favor of treating these selected individuals.

Suggested Citation

  • Timothy B. Armstrong & Shu Shen, 2013. "Inference on Optimal Treatment Assignments," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1927, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    • Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1927
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    Cited by:

    1. Toru Kitagawa & Aleksey Tetenov, 2018. "Who Should Be Treated? Empirical Welfare Maximization Methods for Treatment Choice," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(2), pages 591-616, March.
    2. Davide Viviano & Jess Rudder, 2020. "Policy design in experiments with unknown interference," Papers 2011.08174, arXiv.org, revised May 2024.
    3. Steven F. Lehrer & R. Vincent Pohl & Kyungchul Song, 2022. "Multiple Testing and the Distributional Effects of Accountability Incentives in Education," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(4), pages 1552-1568, October.
    4. Davide Viviano, 2019. "Policy Targeting under Network Interference," Papers 1906.10258, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2024.
    5. Juliano Assunção & Robert McMillan & Joshua Murphy & Eduardo Souza-Rodrigues, 2019. "Optimal Environmental Targeting in the Amazon Rainforest," NBER Working Papers 25636, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Susan Athey & Stefan Wager, 2021. "Policy Learning With Observational Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(1), pages 133-161, January.
    7. Eric Mbakop & Max Tabord‐Meehan, 2021. "Model Selection for Treatment Choice: Penalized Welfare Maximization," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(2), pages 825-848, March.
    8. Yuya Sasaki & Takuya Ura, 2020. "Welfare Analysis via Marginal Treatment Effects," Papers 2012.07624, arXiv.org.
    9. Shosei Sakaguchi, 2021. "Estimation of Optimal Dynamic Treatment Assignment Rules under Policy Constraints," Papers 2106.05031, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2024.
    10. Toru Kitagawa & Aleksey Tetenov, 2015. "Who should be treated? Empirical welfare maximization methods for treatment choice," CeMMAP working papers 10/15, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    11. Juliano Assuncao & Robert McMillan & Joshua Murphy & Eduardo Souza-Rodrigues, 2019. "Optimal Environmental Targeting in the Amazon Rainforest," Working Papers tecipa-631, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
    12. Undral Byambadalai, 2022. "Identification and Inference for Welfare Gains without Unconfoundedness," Papers 2207.04314, arXiv.org.
    13. Davide Viviano & Jelena Bradic, 2020. "Fair Policy Targeting," Papers 2005.12395, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2022.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Treatment assignment; Multiple testing;

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • C18 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Methodolical Issues: General

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