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Testing for time-varying stochastic volatility in Bitcoin returns

Author

Listed:
  • Afees A. Salisu

    (Department for Management of Science and Technology Development, Ton Duc Thang University, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam Faculty of Business Administration, Ton Duc Thang University, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam Centre for Econometric and Allied Research, University of Ibadan)

  • Idris Adediran

    (Department of Economics, Obafemi Awolowo University, Nigeria.)

Abstract
The study will be the first to offer empirical justification for time-varying stochastic volatility in Bitcoin returns. Specifically, it tests for time variation in both the trend and transitory components of the stochastic volatility using the unobserved components model that accounts for same. Thereafter, it calculates the Bayes factor using the approach of Chan (2018) which involves the Savage-Dickey density ratio in order to avoid the computation of the marginal likelihood. The results overwhelmingly support at least one time-varying stochastic volatility component in Bitcoin returns and the transitory component is favoured in this regard. These results are robust to different data frequencies.

Suggested Citation

  • Afees A. Salisu & Idris Adediran, 2018. "Testing for time-varying stochastic volatility in Bitcoin returns," Working Papers 060, Centre for Econometric and Allied Research, University of Ibadan.
    • Handle: RePEc:cui:wpaper:0060
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cheah, Eng-Tuck & Mishra, Tapas & Parhi, Mamata & Zhang, Zhuang, 2018. "Long Memory Interdependency and Inefficiency in Bitcoin Markets," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 18-25.
    2. Joshua C. C. Chan, 2018. "Specification tests for time-varying parameter models with stochastic volatility," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(8), pages 807-823, September.
    3. Chan, Joshua C.C. & Grant, Angelia L., 2016. "Modeling energy price dynamics: GARCH versus stochastic volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 182-189.
    4. Lahmiri, Salim & Bekiros, Stelios & Salvi, Antonio, 2018. "Long-range memory, distributional variation and randomness of bitcoin volatility," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 43-48.
    5. Lahmiri, Salim & Bekiros, Stelios, 2018. "Chaos, randomness and multi-fractality in Bitcoin market," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 28-34.
    6. Katsiampa, Paraskevi, 2017. "Volatility estimation for Bitcoin: A comparison of GARCH models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 3-6.
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    8. Jamal Bouoiyour & Refk Selmi, 2016. "Bitcoin: a beginning of a new phase?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(3), pages 1430-1440.
    9. Dyhrberg, Anne Haubo, 2016. "Hedging capabilities of bitcoin. Is it the virtual gold?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 139-144.
    10. Baur, Dirk G. & Hong, KiHoon & Lee, Adrian D., 2018. "Bitcoin: Medium of exchange or speculative assets?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 177-189.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bitcoin returns; Time-varying stochastic volatility; Bayes factor;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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