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Exchange Rate and Inflation under Weak Monetary Policy: Turkey Verifies Theory

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  • Gürkaynak, Refet
  • KısacıkoÄŸlu, Burçin
  • Lee, Sang Seok
Abstract
For the academic audience, this paper presents the outcome of a well-identified, large change in the monetary policy rule from the lens of a standard New Keynesian model and asks whether the model properly captures the effects. For policymakers, it presents a cautionary tale of the dismal effects of ignoring basic macroeconomics. In doing so, it also clarifies how neo-Fisherian disinflation may work or fail, in theory and in practice. The Turkish monetary policy experiment of the past decade, stemming from a belief of the government that higher interest rates cause higher inflation, provides an unfortunately clean exogenous variance in the policy rule. The mandate to keep rates low, and the frequent policymaker turnover orchestrated by the government to enforce this, led to the Taylor principle not being satisfied and eventually a negative coefficient on inflation in the policy rule. In such an environment, was the exchange rate still a random walk? Was inflation anchored? Does the "standard model" suffice to explain the broad contours of macroeconomic outcomes in an emerging economy with large identifying variance in the policy rule? There are no surprises for students of open-economy macroeconomics; the answers are no, no, and yes.

Suggested Citation

  • Gürkaynak, Refet & KısacıkoÄŸlu, Burçin & Lee, Sang Seok, 2022. "Exchange Rate and Inflation under Weak Monetary Policy: Turkey Verifies Theory," CEPR Discussion Papers 17248, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:17248
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    Cited by:

    1. Joscha Beckmann & Robert L. Czudaj, 2023. "The role of expectations for currency crisis dynamics—The case of the Turkish lira," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(3), pages 625-642, April.
    2. Stephane Dupraz & Magali Marx, 2023. "Anchoring Boundedly Rational Expectations," Working papers 936, Banque de France.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Central bank independence; Taylor principle; Weak monetary policy; Effective upper bound; Currency crisis; Inflation spirals; Emerging markets; Turkey;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E02 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Institutions and the Macroeconomy
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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